[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning!. The winter of discontent continues!.. ironically the polar profile/ pv are playing ball.. however the drivers- equatorial platforms, are miss firing. We need the madden JO to play a massive factor of gain to revive anything “ like winter Synoptics “ for our shores!!  I’m not seeing anything other  than switch n revert just now !!!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

  @ICE COLD - if a shabby PM incursion is the best we can hope for then I’ll hang up my hat this season

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

  @nick sussex   @nick sussex It’s abysmal output for any cold incursion northern most- let alone countrywide.. it’s almost as if the Azores is becoming energized, as the pv transfers east and elongating and rubber stamping it’s authority both to upstream dynamics.. and indeed European ones. Atm it’s very difficult to be optimistic in the foreseeable!!!

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

The mean standing bk but the clustering is getting bound.. we need to look bk end jan/- early feb- for alignment in dynamics… get ya rollercoater tickets here

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

What an absolutely fabulous read this morning...

I'm not posting much, I'd only moan and with age I've realised thats  just an annoyance to others when all said and done !!

A truly old school freezing week up here ,temps haven't really got much above freezing since Sunday night and still snow cover  ,one last cold shot in Feb would be grand ...

 

Straight up February is our prime outlet things slowly getting going.. @ blocking@ direct incursion..

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Can we get explosive/ ppn expansion?.. a rare breed- however it’s possible.. some surprises dustings/ coverings likely regional…

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

8 minutes ago, TillyS said:

 

Yes the pattern can change but there’s no real evidence for it at the moment and the problem with heights to our south, or Europe, is that they don’t tend to shift swiftly. The main models show a run of mild west to south-westerlies. Here are some sample temps through the week from the latest GFS. Some of these are night time minima  

The models point to a mild or very mild week:

Nxt week pretty much set in stone @ mobility.. and unseasonably mild!.. but the question is .. is this the by point for transition to a different outcome!! I’d say so.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

A watching progress! That’s an awful lot of shower activity along the east coast into the North Sea! And the desired wash push looks to be getting going for inland penetration.. certainly 1 to watch 4 the region..

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Gfs n gem offering up similar Synoptics- into the latter stages! There is certainly a scope for formats of heights into the Scandinavian plots.. and with momentum gaining, it’s more than a feasible evolution.. as per we’ll watch and see this possibly developing scenario. And watch  ens supporters for the switch!…

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Any double digit mildness looking ever shorter -long lived.. the longer term well, it’s an unfolding sarga atm..

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

The system-lps- is a non pivoted sync.. this is going into the Low Countries. A complete miss. And a complete shame!!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

There’s OUR frontal system!! Parts of northern France “ getting pummeled “.,

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

4 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The best thing for tonight into tomorrow is to expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised amid anyone has a dusting of snow. At the moment the front to the south is likely to stay off the coast and the snow to north is likely to die out before reaching the likes of Cambridgeshire/Norfolk etc. However in real time things may not pan out this way.

Wise words

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Ya can’t beat sunrise in winter @ under true arctic inflow  @ currently - 4:5  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 minutes ago, pages said:

I am not sure about. The snow currently coming down around Liverpool/Manchester was forecast for Glasgow this suggest the short wave is actually much further south than forecast (150miles) this should result in the low to south west phasing with it early/further west and potentially being dragged slightly further north.

 

Now that would be something. @ phasing with occlusions- but it’s highly unlikely .

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

It’s now unfortunately a dud! All models are wide of the margin perhaps for the extreme south and very short lived !

Somewhat oddly / unusual- we now have a better chance region wide nxt 36/48 from forming shower activity around the Cheshire gap.. the Synoptics are ripe for showers getting well inland and heading further south. There’s even an outside chance of more organized snow bands developing… so something to watch …

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

19 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Unless we see a shift in models this evening any chance of snow tomorrow or from this cold snap seems the have gone! It seems our region is a very hard location to get a decent snow event these days! 

It’s now unfortunately a dud! All models are wide of the margin perhaps for the extreme south and very short lived !

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Wrap around effect...as low passes under us we could bring stuff in from the north Sea as winds go north easterly for 12 hours or so..

Exactly that.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, throwoff said:

 

It's only gone and done it! Kent back in firing line!

We raise the game via North Sea precipitation (possible) into the region.. this is an evolver.. very interesting!!!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Wow we lose the lp- but the drop slant into France raises wash/ North Sea precipitation inland…

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Nice elongated lp here some northern extension allowance.. perhaps!!! 12z gfs

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, throwoff said:

Will have to be a spectacular change.

A biblical turnaround needed now.. in saying that I wouldn’t be “ at all surprised” to see a gfs /icon compare… then the ecm chuck a northward twitch in..,,

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1st 12z off the score cards- the German 1 having none of it- it’s barely even a channel low via this@ straight into France !!!!

[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

Wow envious much - amazing vids / pics FairPlay Scotland

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, SnowBorder said:

My hope is building for a push north from Wednesdays low. 100 miles is a small but required margin in these scenarios. It’s still very possible.  

Stil an evolutionary possibility @ nudge northward, we are still in the game …. JUST!!!.