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tight isobar

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    uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Interests
    The mighty arsenal fc. Beer ,good food, fishing.and all things weather related...
  • Weather Preferences
    blizzard conditions. ice days

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  1. The cooling trend has begun!.. And certainly some interesting anoms/features begining to raise as we walk slowly into the new season. The format feels somewhat like a jigsaw with missing parts that are starting to be found. And solar activity 'im sure will have a climatalogical impact....this quickly coming winter. And the dice ....i hope will roll a 6...for our shores. An iberian/baltic sea heat spike...and a cooling and a rapid cooling around the arm of northern most scandinavia...is a characteristic fond to the eye...at this stage and for priming the desired blocking formats.....its good 2 b bk!!!. #winter 2018/19......
  2. Quite so. And i would usualy decipher the -spag plots in a winter organise.. However they are playing a good/medium decipher prog. So i'll be sticking some into the mid-long range atm... As the overal evo looks ...at least consistant! The consist to some will be wtf!!. Its a mass combo-of a little ens..in with ops sets-in with set divulgs etc- upper airs-probable jet align-supports of a particular member/mod...
  3. Taking all into account... Then the ukmo is a high percentage outcome leaning forwards. The ensembles notch a stark rise later week into weekend..then converge into a confused state...as they have previously at a crossroads of transition. The overall precip/heat notch also allude to this scenario 'somewhat'! Adding fuel to the fire is once again surface conditions flagging a rise/-or continuation of above av-conditions...(especialy midlands-south) Pressure is also a very feasible out-via ukmo raw...and points towards a perhaps more clear upper pattern allowing more sunshine=a spike in temps..especialy locally in favoured spots.. All in all id expect a gradual, note via ens and ops- to come into line with a similar outlook/placements as early as today. With a well noted upping especialy via supports/ens. . The heat being turned back on day by day going forwards...and some notable temps look nailed on.
  4. In an-average summer (not that this is!) Some would likely be raving about set ens-set up-. Especialy as we migrate a little further into the new month of august! They remain firm and notable to pressure rises going forwards...and with the 'already' mass in place iberian/southeastern euro warm/hot pool firmly in-place the possibilities of aligned placements for a uk tap in remain firmly on the table. Surface cond's also stark in there note of remaing above/well above going forwards. Its a the moment as if the models(bar gem) are desperate to resort to default..and with the slight expance of atlantic cooling thats is going to happen as complexities are deciphered!. Im still of the opinion that august will have at least blasts of hot iberian/continental surge. And again with some eye catching temps. And it will certainly be an, interesting watch...seeing how cross model suites unfold ...especialy once the weekend closes. Edit; taking all onboard id expect the mods to slowly begin to make less of the atlantic influence-and more of dominance via a southerly traction of weather into NWeuro as a whole...including the uk.
  5. After the weekends(still not fully deciphered antics).... The theme remains...the heat burner getting fully switched back on!!. Some real heat encrouching... And it has clear and stable eyes at inroads uk destination. With the jet compliance for this evolution also... If ya can't stand the heat...get out of the uk kitchen...into august!!!!
  6. Yes-everything on the up. And along with notable surface cond's into August... The blip becoming clearly just that.....
  7. Discounting-850s for a moment and viewing the overall evolution. Its screaming pressure slits- and by its nearly conclusion...again the heat trap is on...with a primmed aim and target at our shores. Ridging is constantly pointing at a one way road...as the atlantic Want of injection.....yet again fails to materialise!! Its all glory this season 4- constant ridge/hp elevation... The gods are trying but have'nt the strength to twist the heat syphon to negative!!!
  8. I hate to use this term.....however a 'halfwayhouse via gfs/ecm regards weekends confuse..is likely. And if it is a turn to notable heat you- require the point tip greenland is the thing you want to see..via (850s).. The ecm will very likely note this as the run completes... Via iberian/african tap in..
  9. On a more earmarked note; against the grain of hyping things in the winter..the opposite jumps in here. On a global frontal -its notable to see that even the jet dipping and diving on a raw scale...will oddly on this occasion 'very likey' aid convection of heat into the uk...the heat ball is such of that ..'that' even the given profile(jet) into August would usually mean typical summer fayre..however on what is a unusual scenario/scenario's..the given hit is a liable for big heat infusion!! The iberian-and' continental heat fuse just add fuel to the fire...(pun intended).. And the equitorial mass of hp-dominance..and that of want to make'constant' inroads to deep northern hem-lattitudes..is going to be one demon to breakdown. The notion of it being any hotter than of late..with the persistance seems crazy.... However...it clearly is'nt!!!!
  10. We need to keep an, eye on dynamics for the weekend phase-due to mass complexities. On the note of latter prognosis the one snapshot ..i think sums up... Blip>then heat...and like a broken record..its very feasible that summer has the most notable yet in store!!
  11. Im inclined to agree... GLTW August for me the real heat month!!!
  12. Gfs 6z making a little less drama of the iclandic low of deepening the trough.. Also of note is the more organised scandinavian large HP spread...all in all a quicker route back to notable heat influence... We'll see how it develops?!!
  13. Ecm.. Just wants the heat 'quickly' back to our shores!!!
  14. Yes via gfs 12z..although ecm -running now has a different take...at least on the raw. Im still inclined to think the any dramatic climbdown maybe breif... And the impending-AT trough is playing a little havoc at present. At 168hrs its not hard to see the squeeze on the trough..with ridging keen to quickly make a shot at inroads back towards us... all this while southern most are still into the heat zone...