[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 22/1/13 onwards.]

Sorry to be off topic but i think the lack of posts may be to do with the masses of snow piing up outside this evening rather than the search into deepest FI-land for more.....

UKMO looks like it may be onto something at 144 btw. It's been quite good of late hasn't it?

Ned

Been raining here really heavy for last 5 hours

To keep it on topic I have to say Greenland highs to bring cold weather but is it not usually dry and bright? Kinda makes cold a bit pointless or am I missing a valuable point and if so can it be explained please

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 22/1/13 onwards.]

Any chance of sticking to model-related talk? There are numerous threads far more suited to individuals' voicing their weather-predictions...

IM sorry was just replying if that was aimed at me. I cannot comment to much on models as I am still learning sorry again

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 22/1/13 onwards.]

I don't think what you are saying is rubbish, it's a valid point. Let's just see what happens ...

I think its how its going to do it. Its not the low thats going to break it its the winds it pulls from the SW as it starts to move close. it wont be a totall smash as the forecast is possibly heavy snow first before rain.

[Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013, 06z onwards]

Latest charts are showing the LP much further south for monday and tuesday and 6oC in SW not to sure about tuesdays event now.

Same on the weather video forecast on the BBC website

Light Snow shower for Tuesday. Then dry up until sat with 11oC haha

[Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013, 06z onwards]

Raining here, most of the snow in my garden has now gone. Maybe the mild is comming in quicker afterall

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

I think personally it might be a good thing the adlantic has some influence towards end of the week, it will give us a clean slate to start over. Maybe the next cold spell if it comes will be more severe or maybe it wont. But it sparks healthy debate and it gives us a respite from nasty gas bills. I like things to be sesonal big differances between summer and winter its what makes the UK so great. To have some snow has been fantastic, I have also learned a massive amount from the experts as well as from the novices like me asking very sensible questions. I will always favour the fax chart as its written by experts using there brains instead of a computer churning out maths after maths, only takes one number to be slightly out and it has massive implications as an example that insane low preassure. If the latest fax chart is to be belived then it looks like things will remain cold, but over clear skies with high preassure in control with lows out to the adlantic. That means not much in the way of snow for anyone so I agree S4lancia its better to have more marginality than dry and cold.

[Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013, 06z onwards]

Definitely a bit of western movement with the low, no denying that. That arm of precipitation over the West Midlands and North Wales is actually moving slightly S/SW. Whether any significant precipitation arrives in South Wales is another matter.

Very fine, light snow here, though there seems to have been more melt overnight.

By looks of it, its actually intensifying and growing as it does move SW. I am glad I was not only one seeing that happen. You can see the low on Sat24 it is moving north and probably will go up the coast however its pushing the clouds much further west it might slow down tho as it hits the west trying to push in. Its amazing watching the sat loops

[Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013, 06z onwards]

Hard to say the met had the from going up the N Sea coast .

I use Norwich in this case as a marker and Swindon, if you look at the radar you can clearly see the PPN is not going any further north than there, and now swindon is under the PPN so you can see its not going north at all its going west. Which is how ECM was handling it. It might change direction suddenly perhaps but as it stands now it will move down over mid wales into south wales. Thats my prediction

I am a novice but am learning fast

[Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013, 06z onwards]

Agreed atm but N east Wales favorite to get a covering lets watch and see were it goes ,you could well be right.

The charts I saw, the low moves across the south and joins with another one forming out to the SW ECM is still showing this happening but because of the 24 hour jump you miss it happening. I rekon thats going to go straight across mid wales and then go down into SW.

[Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013, 06z onwards]

Looking at 5 min radar loop thats started to turn westward it might actually hit us if it carries on. I did say in the model thread that the ECM had that low going over bristol and sitting on us later on in the day and it doesnt go north. Anyone else seeing this actually happening

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

Oooops. You mean FI, as in "fantasy Island"

Slightly rosey cheeked I'd imagine...

OOOOOOPSY but both mean same thing tho I suppose

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

What is FL?

Long time here and a lot longer weather watching, no idea what an FL is...

Fantasy Land = more than 144 Hours on the charts so its basically a computer trying to guess whats going to happen and usually gets it wrong. Maths can not always be applied to everything

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

You know people talk about FL a lot, I tell you what tho the snow event that happened on friday for here was in FL way before because I actually posted a pic of it on my facebook account saying if this came off we are looking at soem heavy snowfall and it did bang on cue. FL does sometimes come true and at 360 nice new high forming over scandi

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

http://www.meteociel...map=0&archive=0

even ECM is showing it actually hit us at 960mb thats crazy.

500 Dam to

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

Ah yes a nice sub 950mb low approaching, if that came over, goodbye Britain!

Thought so looks like a hurricane to from that picture. Make the famous storm look like a sea brezze haha. Anyways...

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

Blimey, a ~920 mb superstorm in the Atlantic

Isnt that hurricane strength low thats got to be totally wrong could you imagine that hitting us

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

Wish everyone would stop stressing about what the charts a showing this commimg friday/saturday. ENJOY the here and now!! its whst we have been waiting for is'nt it? For instance we have

tomorrows snow event for the south east am and north east pm..........

then we have another snow event for the south west monday night/ tuesday morning spreading into the midland, then discuss this instead!!!

I hope you dont mind, I am discussing end of the week as I am learning a massive amount with the questions I am asking as its very imformative. I know there is lots to come for us next week mate even if breakdown does happen I want to know why thats all.

Model discussion, so I am discussing the models ok in FL tho but still interesting

With regards to the south and east event, I looked at the charts and one a few of them the Low never really leaves france it comes much further west to sit over bristol.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=48&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

The latest 6-10 day NOAA forecast anomalies

no real surprises based on recent outputs.The troughing across the Atlantic a little further north but no sign of any rising heights from the south.A cool looking cyclonic setup with some height anomalies showing over the pole.

So what that chart is showing then, high preassure is building +150 in north pole, and falling sharply in the adlantic (which you can see the 950mb Low sitting there) and its slowly starting to sink into greenland which is what we really want to see yea? so the more the red starts to filter over greenland the better, and we want more blues to the south of the UK. So in laymans terms we want that mega low to sink to our SE into france etc which would throw jet stream south, and introduce VERY strong East winds as it passes to our SE. I would imaging they be gale force to with a LP that low.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

2 things can happen when this happens:

1)High pressure builds over the UK which means we will be in dry, clear and warm weather with the NW seeing rain and windy conditions as low pressures 'bump' into the high which then get deflected NE.

2) Or it rises but then gets flattened by an incoming low from the Atlantic which means we will be in wet and windy weather otherwise known as zonal and can be real nuisance as this type of pattern is hard to get out of eg Winter 2011.

That explains everything, so that what zonal means. Adlantic is like a women and a bull in a china shop huh I did see mentioned way earlier about a scandi vortex and a canada vortex having some sort of mini battle and we hope scandi one wins, why would we want this. From what I have understood canada at the moment is starting to inject more energy into the jet sream which in turn is adding more preassure on the block to cave in. So if the scandi one wins what happens further down the line with regards to canada and the jet. This is gripping stuff

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

The latest 6-10 day NOAA forecast anomalies

no real surprises based on recent outputs.The troughing across the Atlantic a little further north but no sign of any rising heights from the south.A cool looking cyclonic setup with some height anomalies showing over the pole.

so what you mean by height rises is preassure , so height preassure rises to north force jet down, and hight rises to south force it north yes. I understand effect of jet going south what happens when it goes north?

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

thanks-We have been 'lucky' that the stratosphere element has developed- no doubt about it it has helped change an otherwise pony winter thus far- we have landed in zone where tropospheric reaction has been largly effected-& at no point have I said the stratosphere has No effectthe JAN CET to the 15th was 5.6C - Quite a bit over average, the CURRENT cold spell has just got us down to average- at 4.1c ( within 0.1c)CET run over 7 days is 0.6 (11th-18th January 2013: 0.6C)- Which is noteworthy - not exceptional-The point im making is the strat has had a large warming, IF we go out this week back into a mild regime then with one of the best warmings we could have its only really made a mediocre difference...- ( remember 4 weeks of CET is made up by some ups & down & the average is ~ APPROX 10 snow days a WINTER MONTH)so when I hear people harping on how wonderful it is to see a couple of snow events in close succession- so what- thats the NORM-Perhaps when forecasting as a whole for the UK & winter months- we should have adopted Ians browns approach & assume anything can go wrong for us- because it 'usually' does...-S

Good old murphys law always there to give a helping hand. I have to agree to some extent considering how north we are in terms of latitude things should be a whole lot colder but there not. This has been a cold spell I will remember but its not the worse I have seen 1982 is one I remember to be a million times worse. But we have got to used to winters being mild and when a snap does come along it makes it seem much worse than it really is. I am hoping Feb does bring an awsome setup just to break away from boring adlantic driven weather. in winter we love the Northern Blocking, and in the summer we prey for spanish plumes and the same theories and arguments break out. I am trying really hard to put everything thats said in this forum to good use and experimenting with my own ideas. Sometimes its made harder by toys and prams but thats what happens when you put a lot of high energy deep thinkers together in a room. Personally I like everyones opinion may I agree with it or not. My previous question however has still not been answered.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.]

The uppers aren't all that cold so any precipitation will fall as rain hence why I said that would soon wash away any remaining snow.

All in FI though so no need to worry yet

Ohh i thought dam was like 500 purple colours where good maybe I dont read that chart right

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.]

Big low over the SW at t216

That would soon wash away any remaining snow!

Is that a sarcastic comment?? or has that low suddenly dragged loads of cold air with it?

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.]

So whats the chances of a reload after the main attack from the adlantic as in FI uppers of 10oC seems a bit crazy and the low inbound cannot be that low surely 950mB ??

in FI it looks like the adlantic steams ahead and its back to the norm. I have tried to filter out the comments on potential reload but am finding it hard to get around to it all. I guess I am hoping for a brilliant reload of the current setup to end the winter on a bang

If not its time to migrate to Canada lol

So its it possible to have a summary on whats to come early feb. And I know its not all certain etc etc, just want some opinions and charts so I can learn this steep curve

[Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013, 06z onwards]

I think he means precipitation which might normally be abbreviated to PPN.

Nothing has been determined for the next few days, there is a chance for precipitation from a number of directions.

For Wales there is a better chance from the precipitation coming from the west moving east, and fringing Wales according to the NAE of 06Hz.

Rather than the one projected for SE England, which is unlikely to reach us.

Yes I meant PPN haha wrong key ;