David 'Minty' Hill

Been raining here really heavy for last 5 hours To keep it on topic I have to say Greenland highs to bring cold weather but is it not usually dry and bright? Kinda makes cold a bit pointless or am I missing a valuable point and if so can it be explained please

IM sorry was just replying if that was aimed at me. I cannot comment to much on models as I am still learning sorry again

I think its how its going to do it. Its not the low thats going to break it its the winds it pulls from the SW as it starts to move close. it wont be a totall smash as the forecast is possibly heavy snow first before rain.

Latest charts are showing the LP much further south for monday and tuesday and 6oC in SW not to sure about tuesdays event now. Same on the weather video forecast on the BBC website Light Snow shower for Tuesday. Then dry up until sat with 11oC haha

Raining here, most of the snow in my garden has now gone. Maybe the mild is comming in quicker afterall

I think personally it might be a good thing the adlantic has some influence towards end of the week, it will give us a clean slate to start over. Maybe the next cold spell if it comes will be more severe or maybe it wont. But it sparks healthy debate and it gives us a respite from nasty gas bills. I like things to be sesonal big differances between summer and winter its what makes the UK so great. To have some snow has been fantastic, I have also learned a massive amount from the experts as well as from the novices like me asking very sensible questions. I will always favour the fax chart as its written by experts using there brains instead of a computer churning out maths after maths, only takes one number to be slightly out and it has massive implications as an example that insane low preassure. If the latest fax chart is to be belived then it looks like things will remain cold, but over clear skies with high preassure in control with lows out to the adlantic. That means not much in the way of snow for anyone so I agree S4lancia its better to have more marginality than dry and cold.

By looks of it, its actually intensifying and growing as it does move SW. I am glad I was not only one seeing that happen. You can see the low on Sat24 it is moving north and probably will go up the coast however its pushing the clouds much further west it might slow down tho as it hits the west trying to push in. Its amazing watching the sat loops

I use Norwich in this case as a marker and Swindon, if you look at the radar you can clearly see the PPN is not going any further north than there, and now swindon is under the PPN so you can see its not going north at all its going west. Which is how ECM was handling it. It might change direction suddenly perhaps but as it stands now it will move down over mid wales into south wales. Thats my prediction I am a novice but am learning fast

The charts I saw, the low moves across the south and joins with another one forming out to the SW ECM is still showing this happening but because of the 24 hour jump you miss it happening. I rekon thats going to go straight across mid wales and then go down into SW.

Looking at 5 min radar loop thats started to turn westward it might actually hit us if it carries on. I did say in the model thread that the ECM had that low going over bristol and sitting on us later on in the day and it doesnt go north. Anyone else seeing this actually happening

OOOOOOPSY but both mean same thing tho I suppose

Fantasy Land = more than 144 Hours on the charts so its basically a computer trying to guess whats going to happen and usually gets it wrong. Maths can not always be applied to everything

You know people talk about FL a lot, I tell you what tho the snow event that happened on friday for here was in FL way before because I actually posted a pic of it on my facebook account saying if this came off we are looking at soem heavy snowfall and it did bang on cue. FL does sometimes come true and at 360 nice new high forming over scandi

http://www.meteociel...map=0&archive=0 even ECM is showing it actually hit us at 960mb thats crazy. 500 Dam to

Thought so looks like a hurricane to from that picture. Make the famous storm look like a sea brezze haha. Anyways...

Isnt that hurricane strength low thats got to be totally wrong could you imagine that hitting us

I hope you dont mind, I am discussing end of the week as I am learning a massive amount with the questions I am asking as its very imformative. I know there is lots to come for us next week mate even if breakdown does happen I want to know why thats all. Model discussion, so I am discussing the models ok in FL tho but still interesting With regards to the south and east event, I looked at the charts and one a few of them the Low never really leaves france it comes much further west to sit over bristol. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=48&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

So what that chart is showing then, high preassure is building +150 in north pole, and falling sharply in the adlantic (which you can see the 950mb Low sitting there) and its slowly starting to sink into greenland which is what we really want to see yea? so the more the red starts to filter over greenland the better, and we want more blues to the south of the UK. So in laymans terms we want that mega low to sink to our SE into france etc which would throw jet stream south, and introduce VERY strong East winds as it passes to our SE. I would imaging they be gale force to with a LP that low.

That explains everything, so that what zonal means. Adlantic is like a women and a bull in a china shop huh I did see mentioned way earlier about a scandi vortex and a canada vortex having some sort of mini battle and we hope scandi one wins, why would we want this. From what I have understood canada at the moment is starting to inject more energy into the jet sream which in turn is adding more preassure on the block to cave in. So if the scandi one wins what happens further down the line with regards to canada and the jet. This is gripping stuff

so what you mean by height rises is preassure , so height preassure rises to north force jet down, and hight rises to south force it north yes. I understand effect of jet going south what happens when it goes north?

Good old murphys law always there to give a helping hand. I have to agree to some extent considering how north we are in terms of latitude things should be a whole lot colder but there not. This has been a cold spell I will remember but its not the worse I have seen 1982 is one I remember to be a million times worse. But we have got to used to winters being mild and when a snap does come along it makes it seem much worse than it really is. I am hoping Feb does bring an awsome setup just to break away from boring adlantic driven weather. in winter we love the Northern Blocking, and in the summer we prey for spanish plumes and the same theories and arguments break out. I am trying really hard to put everything thats said in this forum to good use and experimenting with my own ideas. Sometimes its made harder by toys and prams but thats what happens when you put a lot of high energy deep thinkers together in a room. Personally I like everyones opinion may I agree with it or not. My previous question however has still not been answered.

Ohh i thought dam was like 500 purple colours where good maybe I dont read that chart right

Is that a sarcastic comment?? or has that low suddenly dragged loads of cold air with it?

So whats the chances of a reload after the main attack from the adlantic as in FI uppers of 10oC seems a bit crazy and the low inbound cannot be that low surely 950mB ?? in FI it looks like the adlantic steams ahead and its back to the norm. I have tried to filter out the comments on potential reload but am finding it hard to get around to it all. I guess I am hoping for a brilliant reload of the current setup to end the winter on a bang If not its time to migrate to Canada lol So its it possible to have a summary on whats to come early feb. And I know its not all certain etc etc, just want some opinions and charts so I can learn this steep curve

Yes I meant PPN haha wrong key ;