Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

SomeLikeItHot

Members
  • Posts

    731
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by SomeLikeItHot

  1. In Sydney my local area has had 335mm since 10pm Thursday to 7pm Sunday and its still going at about 10mm per hour - about 135 since 9am today, Although the radar is now looking like it will ease back to showers in a few hours hopefully. Generally the whole region has 100-150mms since 9am. They are saying its the biggest rainfall event in NSW region since 1998, and yes there won't be many fires left burning in the wake of that - although its sure to miss some parts.
  2. My memory was that say 72hrs forward 6z and 18z are worse than 12z and 0z, but at the same time, eg 6pm next sunday then 6z is better than 0z and 18z is better than 12z, as the accuracy degrades as you go forward and the accuracy differnce is between the runs is than the accuracy degrades over 6 hrs.
  3. Was pretty amazing amount and of hail in some places, sadly only a light shower at my place, despite people snowboarding on the stuff in the next suburb. Below is a iceflow on the Parramatta river (air temp about 20 degrees at the time) Also a good show of lighting Apparently 16311 strikes below showing the plot of them in the Sydney region.
  4. So it looks like most of Sydney region within about 15kms of the coast received around 200-250mm of rain over the last 48 hours, . dropping to around 150mm as you go further west. Rain still on going meant to ease considerably this afternoon but at least the wind has dropped. Some of the Hunter region has recieved over 400mm over the same period of time.Rainfall totals are high but not that unusual (1 in 10 year event?) but combined with two days of severe winds - gusts up to 145kmph for 48 hours is.
  5. They are reporting the town of Maitland in the Hunter Valley received 246mm of rain between 9am and 1pm, this is on top of the aprox 150mm the region received in the previous 24hrs. The Hunter region has been bearing the brunt of some severe thunderstorms appearing in the system with some extreme preceiptation.
  6. Its cold, windy and awfully wet if you live in the Sydney - Hunter region. 15c at the moment in Sydney at 1:30pm, down from 27c over the weekend. We are getting close to 150mm in the last 48 hours in many parts of the Sydney region. I think some parts of the Hunter region are closer to 200+mm over the same time period. Cruise ships stuck outside the harbour in 9+ meter swell.
  7. Given how bad my last minute submissions based on analysis were, I decided that I might as well guess early. 3.2 for me.
  8. Averages are good description of the situation where most results are near the middle like in the bell curve above. But if you get a bi modal distribution (ie outcomes are either higher or lower than the average but rarely near it) then the average is not a good description of what is typical. If you stand with one foot in a bucket of ice and the other in a bucket of near boiling water, you don't feel warm despite what the average temperature may say. AS for places that have temperatures that switch like that I'm not sure but I'm sure it happens somewhere.
  9. But how many were seeing the current forecast set up later this week at 16days? I doubt many if any. Even my relatively limited (ie 3 years) experience of model watching shows that blocks once established get shifted faster in the models than reality. Today's UKMO 12Z and GFS at 96 bares a lot more similarity to the ECM 12Z +144 on the 7th than their own efforts at the same time.
  10. Even in the full history from 1772 there is an observable steeper decline in the average across this period. With the 11th to 17th of Nov average daily temperature decline averaging twice the monthly average of temperature decline per day. Not sure if its statistically significant though.
  11. Yes but what median are you using? Based on the daily CET or Monthly? ie is your median just the average CET of the middle of the three months?
  12. Winter was traditionally winter solstice (21st of Dec) as it was relatively easily observable even in pre-historic times and is reasonably close to the coldest period (10th of Dec to 10th of March) as Roger says above. There is no real reason other than convinience we should define winter as a fixed set of calendar months.
  13. To complete this for the actual winter months. Running correlation and regression on Feb gives a correlation of 0.48. The regression line puts a -2.2 OPI (if that the final OPI figure) giving around a 2.8 +/- 1.6 (1 StDev) for a Feb CET (vs 4.3 for the 1976-2013 avg) so pretty wide range but on the cold side. The winter (DJF) CET Mean correlation is 0.68 actually higher than for any individual winter month, regressing forecasts that a -2.2 OPI gives a CET 3.0 +/- 0.9. So based on the small data set we have it would appear to be forecasting a below average winter. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
  14. Since when did Febuary stop being Winter and November start being winter?
  15. Current GFS is a transitory azores ridge, but the parrallel GFS (I think this is the upgrade being tested) is much more similar to the UKMO which is what he was saying.
  16. Temperature is a measure chosen for another purpose, if the october CET anomaly correlated with the winter CET anomaly then it would be interesting to measure the significance. However if I took the last 24 months of CET data and combined it in such a way that it would have a 80% correlation with the next winter CET anomaly calibrated over the last 30 years. a significance test wouldn't really tell me much only a testing going forward (or using historical data its not calibrated to) would determine whether there was something there. The second situation is closer to the OPI in my opinion. Which brings something to mind/ Is it possible to reconstruct OPI figures (and winter AOs) from earlier dates than the 30years the index was developed on. Isn't there reanalysis that goes back for a much longer period?
  17. Interesting post however the independence tests don't really work when you have selected specific data and combined them in a particular way to match the historical series which is what has been done here. Its not like the OPI is say a relatively simple temperature or pressure measurement at one point.
  18. Since I had the data to hand. Largest daily maximums by month. (Data since 1878 - which is the earliest CET data for max & min). Jan 13.7 Feb 16.4 Mar 22.1 Apr 25 May 29 Jun 30.3 Jul 33.2 Aug 33.2 Sep 31.3 Oct 27.1 Nov 18.7 Dec 14.7 So it apears not for the 3 winter months,
  19. An article on Storm Chasing in the SMH. I think the paywall only kicks in after 10 articles a month so you should be able to view it and the images. Nick Moir's guide to Storm chasing in Australia
  20. Could be a poor translation from italian. I presume they meant a quantity like eccentricity, but perhaps not defined in exactly the same way.
  21. Good Quote. OPI has 7 parameters doesn't it? Presumably with 7 he could make it dance. Edit: Actually I think it has 5 the other two t are derived from the 5 inputs.
  22. 0.279 is the october AO - winter AO correlation. NOT the OPI winter AO correlation. October AO is but one factor in the OPI, The OPI has a 90% correlation with winter AO - , albeit based on the data set it was presumably calibrated on. So far we have had one test of the OPI last year. The AO predicted was the right sign but less positive than may have been expected from the the OPI. This year we will get a second test and if it is a strong negative (as it looks to be) it should be a good test of the model.
  23. ?? The quote was for October 2013 last year so "currently" is for october last year which was a positive OPI.
×
×
  • Create New...