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SomeLikeItHot

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences
    Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!

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  1. My memory was that say 72hrs forward 6z and 18z are worse than 12z and 0z, but at the same time, eg 6pm next sunday then 6z is better than 0z and 18z is better than 12z, as the accuracy degrades as you go forward and the accuracy differnce is between the runs is than the accuracy degrades over 6 hrs.
  2. Was pretty amazing amount and of hail in some places, sadly only a light shower at my place, despite people snowboarding on the stuff in the next suburb. Below is a iceflow on the Parramatta river (air temp about 20 degrees at the time) Also a good show of lighting Apparently 16311 strikes below showing the plot of them in the Sydney region.
  3. Rain. Lots of it. 250mm over the last two days with 80mph gusts its been pretty dire.

    1. Show previous comments  1 more
    2. Daniel*

      Daniel*

      My sort of weather

    3. SomeLikeItHot

      SomeLikeItHot

      Yes they said SST were around 2 degrees above average. Forecast duration kept extending. highest 2 day fall in Sydney in 18 years, so big but not that extraordinary however the duration of the winds and the fact they recorded the highest ever gusts (in the region) certainly was.

    4. SomeLikeItHot

      SomeLikeItHot

      Final rainfall total over around about 3 days was close to 300mm, but we finally have some blue sky today (and a few dark clouds).

  4. So it looks like most of Sydney region within about 15kms of the coast received around 200-250mm of rain over the last 48 hours, . dropping to around 150mm as you go further west. Rain still on going meant to ease considerably this afternoon but at least the wind has dropped. Some of the Hunter region has recieved over 400mm over the same period of time.Rainfall totals are high but not that unusual (1 in 10 year event?) but combined with two days of severe winds - gusts up to 145kmph for 48 hours is.
  5. They are reporting the town of Maitland in the Hunter Valley received 246mm of rain between 9am and 1pm, this is on top of the aprox 150mm the region received in the previous 24hrs. The Hunter region has been bearing the brunt of some severe thunderstorms appearing in the system with some extreme preceiptation.
  6. Its cold, windy and awfully wet if you live in the Sydney - Hunter region. 15c at the moment in Sydney at 1:30pm, down from 27c over the weekend. We are getting close to 150mm in the last 48 hours in many parts of the Sydney region. I think some parts of the Hunter region are closer to 200+mm over the same time period. Cruise ships stuck outside the harbour in 9+ meter swell.
  7. Given how bad my last minute submissions based on analysis were, I decided that I might as well guess early. 3.2 for me.
  8. Just over a week till I depart the UK for Aus after 3 years here. Happy to return but sad to leave. Will miss the snow and long summer days, won't miss winters like last year.

    1. Show previous comments  2 more
    2. lassie23

      lassie23

      shame you couldn't be moving to Buffalo

    3. Lettucing Gutted

      Lettucing Gutted

      you didn't miss much here in winter 2014/2015 either sadly

    4. SomeLikeItHot

      SomeLikeItHot

      I know. I kept track of it. Managed to get a bit of snow in NY on the way back. Now of course we are getting drenched and blown away in Sydney.

  9. Averages are good description of the situation where most results are near the middle like in the bell curve above. But if you get a bi modal distribution (ie outcomes are either higher or lower than the average but rarely near it) then the average is not a good description of what is typical. If you stand with one foot in a bucket of ice and the other in a bucket of near boiling water, you don't feel warm despite what the average temperature may say. AS for places that have temperatures that switch like that I'm not sure but I'm sure it happens somewhere.
  10. But how many were seeing the current forecast set up later this week at 16days? I doubt many if any. Even my relatively limited (ie 3 years) experience of model watching shows that blocks once established get shifted faster in the models than reality. Today's UKMO 12Z and GFS at 96 bares a lot more similarity to the ECM 12Z +144 on the 7th than their own efforts at the same time.
  11. Even in the full history from 1772 there is an observable steeper decline in the average across this period. With the 11th to 17th of Nov average daily temperature decline averaging twice the monthly average of temperature decline per day. Not sure if its statistically significant though.
  12. Yes but what median are you using? Based on the daily CET or Monthly? ie is your median just the average CET of the middle of the three months?
  13. Winter was traditionally winter solstice (21st of Dec) as it was relatively easily observable even in pre-historic times and is reasonably close to the coldest period (10th of Dec to 10th of March) as Roger says above. There is no real reason other than convinience we should define winter as a fixed set of calendar months.
  14. To complete this for the actual winter months. Running correlation and regression on Feb gives a correlation of 0.48. The regression line puts a -2.2 OPI (if that the final OPI figure) giving around a 2.8 +/- 1.6 (1 StDev) for a Feb CET (vs 4.3 for the 1976-2013 avg) so pretty wide range but on the cold side. The winter (DJF) CET Mean correlation is 0.68 actually higher than for any individual winter month, regressing forecasts that a -2.2 OPI gives a CET 3.0 +/- 0.9. So based on the small data set we have it would appear to be forecasting a below average winter. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
  15. Since when did Febuary stop being Winter and November start being winter?
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