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Evening all The HP is ambling across the Atlantic to take up brief residence over the British Isles but it quickly recedes back north west allowing the Scandinavian trough to take control next week. GFS 12Z OP develops a shallow area of LP over western Denmark next Wednesday which extends west to the British Isles - unsettled but no deluges. By the end of next week, this trough has engaged with residual energy over the Atlantic to form a broad but shallow trough over much of northern Europe. Heights remain low over much of the Mediterranean basin and high over Greenland and mid-Atlantic. Overall, in truth, nothing too exciting one way or the other - it's not untypical late April fare in all honesty. Perhaps a short warmer period over Ireland and the far west of Scotland but the main issue might be the nightime minima which suggest plenty of ground frost for sheltered rural areas with all the attendant risks for horticulture at this time of the year.

Evening all The HP will take its time to build in across the British Isles at the end of the week so we should have a spell of quieter weather, drier certainly but not excitingly warm, average at best and with the possibility of some chilly nights leading to ground frost in sheltered rural areas. Into next week and we still lack clarity - with low heights over the Mediterranean and Iberia the obvious option is for the HP to drift north or north west with the trough setting up to the north east pulling in chilly NE'ly winds and for the latter part of the month LP forming to the north coming SSE into the North Sea and bringing cloud and occasional, probably light rain mainly to eastern parts. JMA offers the possibility of a return to more Atlantic dominated conditions for early May but I'm not seeing any significant warmth for the rest of this month.

Evening all Well, yes - our brief "heatwave" doesn't last long though it's been welcome and as the HP recedes west, a new area of LP dives SE across NE Scotland and into the North Sea bringing back more seasonal conditions - close to or only a notch below average - next week, From there, general agreement the HP will inch back towards us but declining as it does after which all manner of scenarios on offer including an almost wintry nirvana from GFS OP (supported to an extent by Control). Other models more circumspect at this time but the HP remains susceptible to easing back west as the trough sinks from the north and heights start to rise around Greenland. A colder spell in mid to late April is hardly unusual but with the HP core in mid Atlantic we're a way from serious warmth and if the LP sinks south to our east, we risk pulling in a cool or very cool N'ly.

Evening all After three or four very pleasant days in the south in particular this week, we have another change as the HP regresses back into the Atlantic and the trough comes south introducing a more NW'ly flow through the weekend and into early next week. From there, your guess is better than mine with all sorts of options on the table though it looks more settled than not with HP somewhere to the north or perhaps north east but you couldn't call it at this time.

WYorksWeather You could have commented on the equally insane GFS OP run T+324 or roughly a fortnight today: Both probably for the bin....

Evening all Early days on the 12Z model output so just a quick couple of thoughts. After tonight's and tomorrow rain it looks like 3-5 days of settled and pleasantly warm weather for most with HP just to the south. Over the coming weekend, that HP breaks down and with the Atlantic HP aligning negatively, we see troughs of LP and cooler air coming back in from the north west though I imagine rainfall totals won't be that high. Outside the reliable it's interesting to see both GEM and GFS looking north for our weather as the next push of warmer air and heights into Greenland leads to a new resurgance of northern blocking over Greenland and indeed GFS OP ends very cool and unsettled with LP tracking south from the Arctic in a N'ly flow. Nothing unusual for late April in all honesty and by no means certain.

Evening all The signal for a drier 3-5 days with HP just to the south of the British Isles remains and is now into the reliable. We have to get through the weekend and a small but quite vigorous LP crossing southern Britain Monday into Tuesday with the latter looking a particularly chilly and wet day for many. From there, just in time for the Grand National, the weather improves but signs from the 12Z suite it's a transient change rather than a significant patter shift. GFS OP and Control build heights to the north suggesting the E'ly some of us have been waiting for many weeks might be on the cards at last. However, a very long way off and a lot to get through starting with this weekend which might be plume-time for some but further west and north just looks plain wet. Some relief for southern and eastern parts after the winter deluge though by no means completely dry but plenty of rain for northern and western areas even up to T+240.

Just a quick comment from me this evening. Tentative signs of something more settled but not yet in the reliable so can only be noted - 12Z GFS OP ends with a return of winter (to a point) so it's far from certain if the HP evolutions put up by GEM and others will be a significant pattern change or a transient development.

Evening all @WYorksWeather has picked the bones out of the Good Friday evening output. Relentlessly unsettled through the coming week and into the following week too with the best on offer transient ridges between Atlantic LP. The signs of something more settled on 12Z GFS OP once again but still far from the reliable and Control keeps the unsettled theme. The ten day rainfall accumulations continue to look very bad especially for large parts of southern, western and northern England and all of Wales. Driest areas look to be NW Scotland and the Western Isles. I presume the higher evaporation rates will help to a degree. Temperature wise nothing too concerning though a very cold night next weekend with severe frosts in northern England and Scotland.

Evening all Not really a lot to be said about tonight's output as there's a strong common theme. The current LP shifts west and then elongates south west back into the Atlantic and sends energy south and west to build a new long elongated trough - it's a pattern we've seen before and basically it's what happens when you get heights to the north trying to push south and heights to the south trying to push north. A succession of LP move close to the British Isles through next week maintaining the unsettled and wet theme with a risk of snow to higher areas midweek as a little feature crosses southern Britain. 12Z ECM offers finally a sign of the jet pushing back north but it's a long way from a done deal and 12Z GFS OP maintains a largely unsettled evolution well into FI. Very early hints around mid month of something more settled but far too far off to be taken seriously at this time. The GFS OP rainfall numbers suggest another 3-4 inches of rain widely across the south and west of England, Wales and the Pennines (possibly as snow) in the next 10 days so flooding concerns remain.

Evening all To put a little meat on the bones of some of the rather brief comments... The deep LP dominates the weather over the Easter weekend sitting either over Ireland or just to the west so rain or showers for many, driest in the east. After Easter, we then see the trough elongate and disrupt between heights from the north west coming south and heights trying to push north from the south. The elongated trough sends a series of LP over southern Britain on a southerly tracking jet so more rain, not too cold though not that warm either. Any hints of something more settled are far too far out to be given much credence at this point. We need to see a break in the trough which would promote heights and that may come as a deeper trough stalls in far off mid Atlantic. Next week looks all about shallower features pushing through in the trough.

Evening all An uninspiring lead in to Easter weekend with the invigorated trough forming a deep LP for the time of year (960 MB or lower) over Ireland. The LP wander sround the British Isles over the weekend before most modesl disrupt it south early next week. GFS OP was on its own last night and is so again this evening keeping enough energy in the Atlantic to develop further LP in an evolution reminiscent of a west-based negative NAO. The 12Z GFS and GEM OP runs continue to pursue very different evolutions even at T+180. The rainfall numbers continue to suggest southern and western Britain will bear the brunt of the weekend deluges.

Evening all While those wanting sunshine and warmth have latched on to the GFS 12Z OP and Control runs like a drowning person to a lifebelt, the fact is GFS is on its own currently. It may have correctly spotted a trend and kudos if it has but it's not a trend the other models are seeing yet. The next few days are now getting resolved with the LP deepening as it moves SE to the southwest of the British Isles by midweek and then withdrawing west as the Easter long weekend begins bringing in a mild SW'ly airflow but an unsettled and unstable airflow with showers or longer spells of rain and I suspect the odd t'storm can't be ruled out. By next Monday, the start of April, the LP is starting to fill and sink south but as heights rise to the north west from Greenland, the LP reinvigorates slightly and comes back NE across south east England as a NE'ly develops. Many of the models then see a N'ly setting up between the Scandinavian trough and heights over Greenland. GFS offers a different synoptic evolution once we get past Easter (and again worth stating this is well into FI) and that's basically a west-based negative NAO develops with enough residual energy to expand the trough south west back into the Atlantic. If you want a synoptic example of chalk vs cheese here are the 12Z OP runs from GFS and GEM at T+240. It doesn't look that great up to Easter in all honesty with daytime maxima 12-14c at best in the south and east and plenty of ground and air frost especially for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Evening all Still some questions to be answered about the trough this week. The first LP moves SE towards the SW approaches and then a second more vigorous feature follows to create a quite intense LP but where? Some models keep it to the west - others have it directly over the British Isles and even at T+72 we're still struggling for some form of clarity. The post-Easter evolution seems to have the LP filling in situ and then a push of heights from the NW though to be fair that's not universally the case - 12Z GFS Control goes in a different direction - but there's little sign of any prolonged dry weather and to be honest our best prospect looks to be strong northern blocking. The 12Z GFS OP rainfall accumulations don't look promising either with the NE of England joining the rain fest this evening.

Evening all Still a lot to be resolved about next week's LP and frankly FI starts as early as Tuesday as there's a lot of uncertainty as to whether the LP will sit out just to the west of us or drop more or less right over southern Britain. To be fair, the net effect is much the same - rain, showers, more rain, more showers. Can we rule out thunderstorms if we get a more S'ly flow? I suspect not. Can we rule out snow on northern mountains if we get a more E'ly flow? I suspect not. Longer term, ECM 12Z OP again goes its own way to an extent bult the general trend seems to be for the LP to fill more or less in situ and for heights to build from both the west and the north. Will we get an E'ly or N'ly in the first half of April? To quote Mr Tom Jones "It's not unusual" and both are modelled on the 12Z synoptic evolution. A high amplitude MJO in phase 8/1 certainly suggests we 'll see our airflow sourced from one of those directions and the northern blocking, so often a feature of early spring, is much in evidence with GFS, not for the first run of late, offering a potent N'ly for the first weekend of April and as we know these can bring considerable accumulations of snow for high ground. The rainfall (or might that be snowfall?) numbers look horrendous for northern Scotland this evening but perhaps not quite as bad for southern and western England. Loks like there could be quite a respectable fall of snow for Highland and parts of Grampian midweek coming.

Evening all Not a huge amount of change over the past 24 hours - the weekend's chillier interlude replaced from Monday by more encroaching LP from the west and north west and this deepens into a significant LP which, according to UKM and GEM, ends up as a significant storm over southern and south western Britain - a central pressure of 960 MB isn't that common this far south at the end of March. From there, we start to see some divergence - some models have the LP filling in situ, others have a more definite shift south ushering in an E'ly but with most of northern Europe now above freezing by day we aren't talking anything too severe but perhaps disappointing and currently those looking for a warm and dry Easter weekend are going to need a miracle. ECM 12Z OP perhaps the mosr divergent keeping the LP but clear signs of a strengthening of northern blocking at T+240. Northern blocking at the end of March/beginning of April isn't unusual by any stretch but can be hard to shift once in place. The rainfall accumulations off the 12Z GFS OP aren't that encouraging for the south west with still nearly three inches likely over Devon and parts of Cornwall before Easter and temperatures also disappointing with daytime maxima around the mid teens at best in the south east and plenty of frost especially for Scotland and of course hill snow can't be ruled out.

Evening all As @Uncertainty points out, 12Z ECM OP looks on its own tonight. Once this weekend's chillier interlude passes, the negatively aligned trough comes in from the north west by Monday and by Wednesday the LP is more or less right over the top of the British Isles and the accumulated precipation numbers on the 12Z GFS OP aren't pretty with another three inches of rain for the south west by Easter Saturday. The "hope" is the LP fills in situ or just to the west and we get a slow improvement. Into far FI and fans of warm and dry conditions get their bit of eye candy as the jet is pushed well to the north and HP builds in - the ensembles are rolling out slowly on meteociel so I don't know if the OP is an outlier. ECM OP pushes the LP quickly to the south and evolves a strong build of heights to the NE and a SE'ly airflow into Easter. 12Z GEM OP at T+240 has a shallow elongated trough which offers something drier for the south east but not much improvement elsewhere. The idea of a NE'ly for Easter seems to have been discarded for now.

KTtom The exact position of the LP is going to be important but the net effect will probably still be the same. If it ends up to the west, it'll be milder for us all but with rain or showers moving in a cyclonic pattern from south west to north east. If we end up with the LP over us, we'll probably generate our own showers especially in the south and west with thunder and hail but in the north with E'ly winds more cloud and longer spells of rain with snow on northern mountains. The least likely scenario is the LP to the south but not to be disregarded at this time.

Evening all An early look at tonight's 12Z output. The path through to the end of the week seems set - after an almost early summer like day tomorrow, it's downhill all the way as an LP weakens and moves SE into the North Sea introducing a not terribly potent N'ly but it will take temperatures back below average and be quite a shock to the system. The early part of next week, as you might expect, is still far from resolved but there seem to be two scenarios in town. The GFS OP offers a build of heights to the north and the trough moving SE to the west of the British Isles leaving us in an E'ly flow with the north and west fairly dry but rain never far away from the south and south east and a switch to the NE offers the "promise" of something colder with plenty of ground and air frost in northern areas.. The other option keeps a lot of energy close to the British Isles and basically LP takes up residence over England. That doesn't bode well for those wanting a respite from the high rainfall totals of recent times. Indeed, GEM keeps the LP right up to Easter with periods of rain or showers for all and little in the way of spring sunshine or warmth. GFS has stuck to its guns the past two or three days but looks on its own currently.

If you want a dry April, the best way is to have lots of northern blocking with strong HP over Scandinavia keeping the jet far to the south and the LP over Europe. Some hints of that in tonight's 12Z CFS though the LP is never that far away from the south west.

Evening all Far too early to be "calling" Easter - it looks as though we will get a brief N'ly next weekend as a transient mid-Atlantic ridge breaks the LP sequence and with a continuing signal for heights to the far north, the negative alignment of what looks a vigorous LP system coming out of North America looks a pre-cursor to potential trough disuption in the days immediately before Easter. A lot to be resolved on any energy distribution but those fearing an unsettled and potentially wet Easter weekend, especially for southern and western parts, may not be incorrect at this time but there's a very long way to go on this one just yet. The 10HPA charts suggest whatever zonal wind there is will be very light and the jet stream inclines to a more southerly track over western Europe.

Evening all While those of us who enjoy looking at interesting synoptics may be more thrilled about T+240 charts than some, we all know they are beyond reliable and not to be taken too seriously. There is though more than a hint in this evening's output of "something" happening as we approach Easter. The first clue is the re-alignment of the trough, at the end of the week as heights start to develop south from the Pole and the PV sets up shop over Siberia. The LP dives SE into Scandinavia and we start to see a more WNW'ly airflow. In the week leading up to Easter, could we then see trough disruption to the south as heights continue to build to the north? Northern blocking in late March and early April - hardly unusual in all honesty. There are teases of a chilly E'ly but I suspect it won't be as dramatic but for those looking for a prolonged drier spell head north - the south is likely to remain susceptible to rain .

Evening all To be fair, if you're interested in unusual synoptics or want a good spell of dry weather, there's not much for you in tonight's offerings at least in the short term. The next 10 days offer a bit of sun, a bit of rain, a bit of warmth but nothing to worry about too much. We might see a 16 or 17c over East Anglia next weekend if all goes well. The pattern which kicked in on January 22nd has broadly speaking been maintained, what I would describe as on the wet side of benign. Hints on some of the GFS members (including the OP) of a break in that pattern as the PV finally edges over to central northern Canada and we get heights and warmer air into Greenland which changes the pattern over us to a more traditional battleground of warmer vs colder airmasses and as we approach Easter the colder air wins temporarily but this is a long way from the reliable (the earliest hint, the PV starting to move west is at T+192) and only eye candy at present but it would be the law of sod to have a much colder regime come in for Easter.

Evening all MJO forecast to enter Phase 7 at high amplitude early next week and then, as per usual, start to decline as it approaches Phase 8 in 10-12 days. Can anyone with the composites see if the current model output mirrors these composites? The rainfall patterns are consistent with a SW'ly flow so not good for the Lakes, North Wales or South West Scotland but much drier further south and east. Not much of a signal that I'm seeing tonight for a significant pattern change before Easter. On the stratosphere, what has surprised me this winter has been the rapid recovery from near reversals or, as now, more defined reversals. That would be consistent with a colder strat which is in turn one of the signals for climate change so the question for the future will be, even if a more turbulent and active atmosphere encourages more warming events, will they be strong enough to facilitate a strong enough SSW with strong enough downwelling to promote significant tropospheric impacts?

Evening all The week's pattern - a long fetch TM airflow with an elongated trough positively aligned towards Scandinavia and heights over Iberia. Mild if not warm with above average early spring temperatures but unsettled away from eastern and southern areas with rain at times and I suspect considerable orographic rainfall for the usual suspects. By the weekend, hints the trough might start pushing east into Europe - obviously now we're outside reliable so just a few bits and pieces to watch. Heights over Greenland start to manifest but what pushes the jet south is the trough setting up just to the west of northern Scandinavia - that generates a cold N'ly which meets the warmer airflow to the south and generates LP which cross the British Isles so those hoping for a prolonged drier and warmer period look to be out of luck as we move into the final third of the month. 12Z GFS OP then brings in some quite cold air (-8 850s) with the trough over southern England while other models point to an unsettled and chilly approach to Easter. All conjecture at this point.