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stodge

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Everything posted by stodge

  1. Afternoon all Completely FI and probably completely unsupported but: This would probably bring the colour back to your cheeks !! Chilly spell following: It won't happen though.
  2. Morning all It is of course taking longer for the houses and the brickwork to release the heat so another warm night last night but the hope with today's rain and cooler air and some open windows we'll continue the return to normality. The weather though looks uninspiring - currently only light drizzle here in East London. but I note ther current NW radar showing some heavier rain in the Channel and some lively storms around Guernsey and Alderney.
  3. Morning all General agreement (though not on the detail) of LP encroaching from the NW and crossing the British Isles through the second half of the weekend and into early next week so a disappointing few days after the spell we've enjoyed or endured (delete as appropriate) with temperatures closer to what we would expect and some of the wet stuff though not perhaps in the quantities some would like. After that (really from this time next week) it becomes much more confused - ECM settles us into an uninspiring westerly so average for all but GFS 00Z OP tries to build back in the Azores HP in various ways as does GEM but it's a little uncertain and half-hearted at this stage but obviously more runs are needed.
  4. stodge

    Spain weather

    Looking at the latest Arpege and Hirlam models I'm not convinced the temperature record will go tomorrow or even Sunday. It looks as though the Spanish-Portuguese border will top at 46c but I don't see a 48 or 49c on offer though it may be someone somewhere gets very close.
  5. Morning all :) Not sure about wading into this bad-tempered bear-pit today but I'm past caring. Some of the more outlandish 850HPA charts when this coming weekend was in low-res haven't materialised and we're back to the dilemma we've always had with two competing scenarios. In Scenario A the HP builds across the country then breaks from its parent Azores cell and meanders east into the North Sea or Scandinavia. This allows a S'ly or SE'ly feed of hot air to come from the Continent but pressure falls to the west and we get a thundery breakdown as the trough crosses the country easy to west before HP builds in again from the SW and the process re-starts. This is the traditional "three fine days and a storm" scenario with a period of building heat reaching a crescendo before storms and fresher air cause a re-set. In Scenario B the HP stays out to the west and never encroaches or the ridge builds across the UK but never breaks from the parent cell. This keeps us dry, warm or very warm but doesn't allow for the encroachment of hot air as the feed is from a N'ly or E'ly quarter across the south. This is our "fine summer spell" weather - lovely for the holidaymakers with onshore breezes but no exceptional heat or storms. There were and remain charts showing renewed northern blocking and retrogression and this would ruin August as we'd get the trough dropping into Scandinavia and a cool N'ly setting up down the North Sea. However, theses are far from certain but the truth is that old modern wives tale I've just made up: "if the core of the High be in the west neither heat nor storms will we get" "if the core of the High doth move east there'll be too much heat for man and beast" (I know, needs some work). Both GFS and GEM play to Scenario A but Scenario B has its supporters too keeping the heat well to the south. "
  6. Here in lowland East London I'm showing 33c which is blisteringly hot. City Airport is 34c which is just off Heathrow - will anywhere reach 36c today, not sure ?
  7. Afternoon all I don't see this concensus for heat at the end of next week and the beginning of the following week that some can see from the 06Z GEFS. First, it's low-res and FI when we're talking T+276 charts or beyond. That's not to say they can't or won't verify but nothing can be taken for granted at this stage. Looking through the members, yes, there are a number which bring the 20c 850HPA up to and across southern parts but there are a good number which don't. Yes, the heat builds to the south and through Iberia, no question, but it's far from clear to this observer that the hot air will reach our shores at this time. Yes, it might still be fine but more in the realms of very warm than very hot. As ever, more runs are needed.
  8. Late morning all :) One of the runs yesterday showed a classic retrogressing HP into Greenland - a beautiful thing though not for fans of heat as the NNE air flow introduced would cool things down significantly. The modelling of next weekend's push of heat remains from clear - the 06Z OP looks to be heading down a very toasty route with the 20c 850HPA reaching the SW on Monday 7th: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018072606/gfs-1-276.png?6 Two points though a) the heat keeps getting delayed and hasn't made it into low-res and b) there remains considerable variation (compare with a relatively cooler 00Z). If you want heat, the HP has to disrupt east to bring up the hot air from Iberia - if it retreats west, the flow will be from the N or NW and the hot air stays to the south. The former offers much more storm potential, the latter would likely see a quieter transition to cooler conditions.
  9. Evening all Have to say it looks like a step or two back from the heat-topia of earlier runs. Thursday and Friday this week look hot for the SE and certainly 33c looks likely but a significant breakdown through the weekend with much cooler air pulling temperatures back to a much more agreeable 25c or so. The end of next week remains in low-res so forecasting very difficult - the signs for a new thrust of heat north from Africa and Spain across France are clear but from previously looking as though Friday 3rd would be the climax of the heat with the 20c 850 crossing England, it now seems to be Sunday 5th and Monday 6th which could be the hottest days but the 20c 850 doesn't quite make it before the Atlantic pushes cooler air back in. This is from the 12Z GFS OP - the 06Z parallel was underwhelming but the 12Z Control kept the heat through to the end of the week after next especially, oddly enough, in the SW. More runs are needed but I don't see records in danger just yet.
  10. Afternoon all Couldn't find a German Weather thread so started one to report back on the recent River Rhine cruise Mrs Stodge and I (along with the out-laws) enjoyed. We started in Basel and travelled via Breisach, Speyer, Rudesheim, Koblenz and Cologne to Duisburg. We arrived in Basel on Thursday 12th July to temperatures close to 30c and the following day went up to the Schynige Platte on the little train from Wilderswil. Fantastic up at 6000 feet, cooler (probably around 20c) but still mainy sunny and able to get clear views of the Jungfraujoch which I gather doesn't happen every day. On the Saturday the morning was in the beautiful town of Breisach and the afternoon on a coach trip to Titisee in the Black Forest. After a sunny start, the cloud gathered in the afternoon but it was still 28c at the lake. Monday in Speyer and then cruising up to Rudesheim was very warm again with maximum values pushing 31c. Some cloud but still plenty of sunshine. From Rudesheim on the Tuesday morning up the Rhine Gorge to Koblenz - in the afternoon, more noticeable cloud and quite a strong wind in the Gorge with thunderstorms close by. Koblenz was hot at 32c. Wednesday saw us in Cologne and again very warm or hot in the city and temperatures above 30c but a coolong breeze on the deck of the ship by the river in the evening. Thursday in Duisburg and the same again - mainly fine and hot but with clouds in the afternoon. The heatwave or "HItzewelle" is all over the German media and plenty of dramatic pictures from the wildfires in northern Sweden and Finland and some extraordinary temperatures in that part of the world.
  11. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    I certainly think we could have some short-term pain for some longer-term gain if the longer-term signals are correct and the pattern shifts to HP developing to the east rather than the SW or NW. As the Azores HP slackens and LP moves in, a longer or shorter spell of more unsettled conditions looks feasible before the new pattern establishes but that might mean LP sitting over the British Isles with the attendant poor conditions.
  12. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Afternoon all The 06Z Parallel is also pushing the idea of a breakdown from the NW from mid month Parallel FI not one for the sun-worshippers, almost autumnal with LP in charge. The 06Z OP tries to build heights to the far north which pushes the jet back south and pulls the Azores HP back SW. Well, maybe, but I'm not convinced and it's all FI for now but certainly perhaps a sign the light at the end of the tunnel is the Breakdown Express.
  13. Morning all :) Apologies for invading this thread but Mrs Stodge and I were touring round southern Ireland last week and it was absolutely phenomenally magnificently glorious. A noticeable Easterly wind in Dublin and Waterford and along the southern coast tempered the weather slightly in the early part of last week but we got to Killarney last Tuesday and enjoyed two fantastic days in Kerry. Slightly hazy and cloud came in one evening to spoil the sunset over the Lakes but the temperatures were in the mid 20s so very pleasant with low humidity. From Killarney we drove north to Galway and spent two days in what I can now describe as Ireland's Oven. The Cliffs of Moher were scorchingly hot with temperatures pushing above 30c and a hotel room in central Galway without air conditioning almost unbearable. In Connemara last Thursday we were over 30c but I think Shannon Airport hit 32c on Thursday as well. Driving back across to Dublin, the Midlands were warm but back on the coast the refreshing breeze made for a pleasant evening strolling around Temple Bar. Fascinating to see the synoptics favouring the heat for the west so strongly and no surprise but the thermal gradient even on such a small land mass was interesting. Galway and Connacht were much hotter than Dublin and Leinster. While the temperature record was set at Kilkenny, I think a station like Shannon Airport, Athenry or Mullingar must be favoured next time. A beautiful country and a wonderful week but a sense we can never go back as it will never be that good again.
  14. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Morning all A return for the morning medium term analysis from me. After a synoptically fascinating late winter and spring with the latter starting with an incredibly cold spell and ending with one of the warmest and sunniest May months for decades, where does summer go from here ? It's actually quite cool and uninspiring in London Town this evening but where will we be on or around Midsummer (at least in solstice terms) ?: ECM 00Z at T+240 (Friday June 22nd): A typical summer chart for NW Europe with the Azores HP ridging strongly NE and a weak jet held well to the north. Decent conditions - warm but not hot with a gentle NW'ly flow and always the risk of damper and murkier conditions on western coasts and hills. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: Much more solidly anticyclonic with the ridge over Ireland and NW Britain so a cooling NE'ly breeze for southern and eastern areas meaning it's pleasant rather than oppressively hot. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: The Azores ridge has a more easterly tilt so crosses southern parts with most of the British Isles covered by a balmy WSW'ly flow. Fine and warm especially in the south but cloudier and mistier to western coasts and hills. GFS 00Z Parallel at the same time: Not hugely different from the OP. GFS Control at the same time: Closer to the GEM. In summary, it's quite settled vs very settled as we move to the end of next week and those attending the last couple of days of Ascot should be fine in their finery (so to speak) with comfortable to warm temperatures but nothing excessively hot or humid on offer. Dry for many if not most but western coasts always vulnerable to a muggier Atlantic and some drizzle and low cloud at times, It's not very interesting synoptically in all honesty but it's summer weather - beyond that the question is whether the ridge relaxes back SW or cuts away to the NE and that might be of much more interest.
  15. The East Ham Storm was truly impressive. Looking back at the NW Radar, the storm developed out of nothing to the east of Romford and Hornchurch at 6.15pm and rapidly developed more or less in situ with the heaviest rain and hail (though little thunder and lightning) over East Ham at 6.45pm. Last night, the storm developed just to the north (over Ilford and Walthamstow) but that moved away NNW to join the chain of storms from London moving NW through Birmingham. Tonight's storm brought a wild 15-20 minutes of hail and intense rain (I've no measuring equipment but the rain rate would have been impressive) before the whole thing started to move WSW toward central and SW London. A hang-back of cloud has remained but the humidity has eased fractionally. It's interesting to see the area to the NE of London being a formation area for storms two days in a row. I wonder why ? It's a little way from the Thames Estuary and there's not much high ground so I don't know why storms should be forming here.
  16. Evening all HUGE storm here in East Ham and across East London. Probably the strongest storm I've experienced in more than a decade of living in this part of the world. Serious hail and torrential rain for a good 15-20 minutes but now passed.
  17. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Morning all Some thundery outbreaks in the south yesterday and it remains to be seen if we get more today in this part of the world. Looking ahead. the medium term analysis this morning takes us out to Friday June 1st: ECM 00Z at T+240: A big change from yesterday and more akin to what the GFS models were showing. After a very warm end to the Bank Holiday weekend, the HP declines ESE and the core of the European trough shifts NE into central Europe allowing a ridge to build NE from the Azores HP. Fine conditions for many but a cooler NE'ly breeze for southern and eastern parts and a residual risk of showers. GEM 00Z at the same time: A very decent outlook for those wanting fine and settled conditions. Both the HP and LP from the coming weekend decline into next week as a new ridge builds NE from the Azores HP to the west of the British Isles with a new HP cell setting up to the north of Scotland. Fine conditions for most with a very light E'ly flow and perhaps only residual sea fog and mist to eastern and southern counties to consider. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: Not too far removed from the GEM/ECM solutions in all honesty. The ridge ends up to the north of the British isles with a very shallow trough covering much of Europe. Perhaps a greater risk of showers for the south but overall fine. Further into FI the HP builds to the NW and there's a strong signal for something much cooler as the wind swings more NE as pressure falls over Europe and the risk of rain for southern and eastern parts increases. GFS 00Z Parallel at T+240: Not too far removed from the OP in truth. Further into FI, the Parallel builds heights more to the east or north east and a static pattern develops which keeps the British Isles warm or very warm with the greatest risk of rain or showers for western areas. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: Close to the OP again. In summary, there's much more agreement across the models today into the medium term. After the warmth of the coming Bank Holiday weekend, both the HP and LP systems responsible will decline as a new ridge is thrown NE from the Azores to the west and north of the British Isles. A new easterly sets up but it's generally fine for most although the threat of rain or showers for southern counties increases with time.
  18. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Morning all Been away due to a family bereavement and haven't looked at a chart for 10 days or more. The last I remember was plenty of northern blocking building for later in May with heights to the north and persistent LP over Europe leading to an easterly flow and the risk of showers for southern and south western parts. As a man from Sheffield once said "that was then, this is now". The medium term analysis goes out to Thursday May 31st and starts as always with the morning's ECM output at T+240: Not a lot has changed. Heights over Scandinavia and a notable trough over Europe bring in a warm, if not very warm, SE'ly flow for many over the coming Bank Holiday but the HP retrogresses to Greenland meaning pressure drops near the British Isles and shallow Atlantic systems are edging in to the south west with a cooler NE'ly flow across the far north. Settled for now but the notion of things going downhill at speed is evident. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: Some differences to ECM. Good agreement through the weekend with the warm SE'ly but GEM takes the trough further north across the British Isles before heights rise again to the NW and NE and we end with a light easterly flow but still with a risk of showers for southern and south western areas. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: The HP doesn't retrogress as with ECM but moves back into Scandinavia and declines SE but the pressure gradient over the British Isles is very slack. Some residual LP to the south west but very much a holding pattern with showers possible but very light winds. Further into FI and HP builds to the north and north west so another dose of easterly winds before a trough develops over Scandinavia and extends SW bringing in cooler and more changeable conditions. GFS Parallel at the same time: Again, a very slack evolution with a shallow trough over the southern North Sea so showers or thunderstorms possible in southern and eastern areas. Further into FI and a strong ridge develops NE from the Azores into June keeping the weather fine and warm for most. GFS Control at the same time; Heights to the NE remains strong but the European LP has moved up into southern areas bringing in an enhanced risk of showers or storms. Further into FI and the HP and the continental LP re-orient to bring in a cooler ENE'ly flow with showers still a risk in the south. IN summary, a fine and very warm Bank Holiday weekend for many albeit with a growing risk of showers or storms for the south and south west. Into next week and a range of options on offer - ECM offers retrogression but the percentage call looks to be a slack flow which would be reasonable for most but if you do get a shower or storm it would be very slow moving and consequently could drop a lot of rain on a localised area. Absolutely no sign of Atlantic influence and while Parallel offers a nice continuation of the fine spell into June via an Azores ridge other options maintain the pattern of heights to the north and lower pressure over Europe periodically extending across southern parts of the British Isles.
  19. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    The 6Z Control has a very strong signal for blocking in low-res. Indeed, the evolution would, if occurring in early January, have this forum in meltdown: A fine example of a retrogressing HP but of course no likelihood of verification. The GEFS, as James suggests and I alluded to earlier, is signalling strong HP for the second May Bank Holiday weekend but the majority of the Members show the HP centred to the north or north east of the British Isles so an E'ly or even NE'ly flow so it's hard to see any temperature records being broken this time and it may be eastern coasts will struggle with sea fog and haar but for most and especially the further west and northwest you are, it looks fine and settled. Let's see how this plays over the next week or so.
  20. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Morning all A notch cooler in London this morning but still pleasant enough after the overnight rain. The models were offering two very different evolutions yesterday so let's see where we are today. The medium term analysis takes us to Sunday May 20th and starts as always with the ECM 00Z at T+240: ECM not too different from yesterday. The weekend's disrupting LP fires some energy into Europe re-invigorating the trough over the continent but attempts to build HP back in are pushed south as northern blocking based over Greenland starts pushing the jet back south and the LP systems off the Atlantic start coming on a more southerly track. At T+240 the Azores HP is suppressed far to the south and the LP is moving west to east across Scotland with a second LP set to follow a similar if not slightly more southerly track. It's unsettled with rain or showers for all and quite cool especially in the north. GEM 00Z at the same time: Very different. The blocking over Greenland is much less influential while the Azores HP is much more influential sending a ridge NE to the south of the British Isles. The Atlantic LP is further north and positively tilted so we have a benign SW'ly flow for most with fine conditions for southern and eastern parts though more unsettled in the north west. Signs of the Atlantic trough digging south so we could see a spike of heat from Iberia for the second May Bank Holiday. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: A slow moving and slack evolution which ends up quite messy. As I said yesterday, you have two competing pressure patterns at work. To the west of the British Isles, we have the classic LP to the north west and HP to the south west (though the latter is very shallow on this output). To the east, heights over Scandinavia are balanced by LP over southern Europe originating from North Africa. The British Isles ends up in the col between these competing pressure systems so decent conditions particularly for the south and east but more unsettled further north and west where the Atlantic influence is most noticeable. Further into FI pressure builds through the British Isles from the Azores to Scandinavia keeping most fine but LP remains over Europe and for the south east there would be a light NE'ly and the risk of a shower (more so for the Channel Islands). GFS 00Z Control at T+240: Pretty close to GEM with the Azores ridge holding off the Atlantic LP which is quite vigorous for the time of year. Further into FI HP remains mostly in charge but at the very end of FI, as the HP weakens, the European LP starts to take control with a new LP extending NW across southern Britain suggesting thundery outbreaks. Welcome back to the GFS Parallel run and I'll be featuring this rather than the Control from now on and here's the 00Z at T+240: More of an Atlantic influence with the trough looking to sink SE and join with the trough over Europe. Further into FI it's a see-saw between the troughs to the NW and SE and the HP to the SW and NE. The latter wins out at the very end of FI on this run. The 00Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 As we've seen, the "struggle" between the competing troughs and ridges continues but on this evidence the ridges are coming out on top with a majority of members looking to maintain HP close to or over the British Isles. Moving on toward the second May Bank Holiday and the signal for settled weather is very strong from the 00z. Whether the HP is in the right position or oriented to draw up the warmest air isn't clear but a majority of the members look warm to hot. In summary, May is often a curious month with unusual synoptic patterns and sharp contrasts in temperature and weather. With the Atlantic often at its weakest, the influence of the Scandinavian HP and European trough are often felt more strongly now than at other times. Northern blocking is for the second day running a strong part of the ECM scenario while GEM is more anticyclonic and positive and GFS messy and uncertain. In truth, little change from yesterday. Moving toward the last third of May, the possibility of unsettled conditions affecting the south east in particular from Europe remains but the signal for a dry and settled Bank Holiday has grown this morning and it may be that after the stampede for the sunshine last Monday we may see a repeat performance but it's far too early to be certain.
  21. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Afternoon all :) Unfortunately, the daily update running slightly behind schedule but no matter. A cooler but still very pleasant day here in London Town but a sense perhaps of a change back to something more typical for mid May than the current July-like conditions. On to the models and the medium term analysis to Saturday May 19th: ECM 00Z at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018050900/ECM1-240.GIF?09-12 On the face of it, not too bad with a ridge of HP covering most of the British Isles. ECM has the weekend LP disrupt and fill over Ireland but the key development is the return of strong northern blocking as a large 1045MB HP sets up over eastern Greenland. The jet is moving back south in the face of this and Atlantic LP systems are going to be moving through the British Isles which means more rain and wind for most. GEM 00Z at the same time: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2018050900/gem-0-240.png?00 GEM was the most anticyclonic of the models yesterday but today has come more into line with ECM. After the weekend LP disrupts and fills a new LP develops over Scotland briefly but that too fills in the face of rising pressure from the north and east. As the ridge builds in from the east, the Atlantic LP stalls in situ so a warm and largely settled outlook for most with only the far west of Ireland seeing drizzle. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/2018050900/gfs-0-240.png?0 A very soggy and unpleasant chart especially for the south with rain, possibly heavy at times, for southern parts. It's quite a messy evolution this morning from the American model and not really in sync with ECM/GEM. After the weekend's LP fills, there's an attempt to raise pressure from the SW but by Tuesday next week a new LP is developing to the NW and squeezing out the heights. Meanwhile, pressure is rising strongly to the far NE and all that does is push the complex trough down across the British isles by the end of the week. Further into FI and the British Isles essentially is in the col between two competing pressure regimes. To the west, we have the traditional LP to the north and HP to the south but to the East we see HP over Scandinavia and LP over Europe so you'd think the Atlantic trough could drop SE through the British Isles or the HP could ridge NE but in essence neither happens. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018050906/gfs-0-234.png?6 Variation on a theme albeit with the small LP about 700 miles further north. Further in to FI and it's a pattern we often see at this time of year as thundery LP heads north from Africa and Iberia toward southern Britain forcing the Azores ridge NE over northern Britain and we end with a warm and dry E'ly albeit with a hint of thunder for the Channel Islands. GEFS 06Z at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 The spread to the NW tells the story between those members who favour a continued Atlantic dominance of our weather and those who look at northern blocking and a more continental influence. The OP went with the latter but the Mean plays the col card which isn't unsupported either. Further on and it's the same old story of the strong signal for northern blocking so we'll see. In conclusion, the pattern through to the weekend and beyond looks set. GFS has quite a messy evolution which doesn't end well for the south while both GEM and especially ECM bring in strong northern blocking which pushes the jet back south. It's far from a washout but with LP systems tending to move across the British Isles rather than to the north we would get quite unsettled and wet spells. There are also hints of low heights from the south coming north which isn't unknown at this time of year and can bring thundery downpours but that's looking more toward the last third of the month and wouldn't be unusual.
  22. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Morning all A glorious early summer spell continuing for many into a fourth day with the highest temperature values of near 29c to the west of London. Clear signs of a moderation in temperature this week but into mid month there were, last week, notable hints of renewed northern blocking. This morning's medium term analysis takes us to Friday May 18th and starts as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: It's an interesting evolution. LP approaches from the NW through the coming weekend but disrupts in situ. However, as HP tries to build in from the west, LP over Europe re-asserts and by T+240 a shallow LP centred over western Britain controls the weather so the forecast would be showers or longer spells of rain possibly thundery developing across southern and south western areas in particular. The Azores HP is ridging to the NW of the British isles and the trough remains over continental Europe. GEM 00Z at the same time: GEM keeps the weather fine and settled for many for the foreseeable. The Atlantic incursion over the coming weekend amounts to very little and is pushed back NW allowing the Azores HP to build across the British Isles and by T+240 a large HP cell covers the British Isles with light if not calm winds and plenty of fine weather. A deep LP looks becalmed far out in the Atlantic and all that does is prop up the HP. GFS OP 00Z at T+240: Another very interesting evolution, closer to ECM than GEM in all honesty. The weekend LP tries to disrupt SE through northern parts of the British Isles but a renewed push of heights from the Azores HP keeps southern areas reasonably settled. However, early next week the heights start to recede as LP becomes more organised first to the north and north west before sinking SE through the British Isles and linking with the trough coming north from Africa and southern Europe. The Azores HP ridges more north toward renewed heights over Greenland and to the north of Scandinavia. At T+240 there is a brisk N'ly over western areas but eastern areas are under much lighter winds but with rain or showers developing over the British Isles and especially for eastern parts. Further into FI we get 36-48 hours of unpleasant cool and wet conditions from a small LP in the southern North Sea before the trough transfers NW back into the Atlantic and heights build in again from the SW. GFS Control 00Z at T+240: Cool and unsettled with the LP sinking south toward the British Isles. Further into FI the trough remains close to the south and east while heights build to the north and west leaving winds in the easterly quadrant and a greater risk of rain or showers for southern and eastern areas. The 00Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Two main clusters on offer - one has the Azores HP building strongly in from the SW and the other doesn't meaning LP over or close to the British Isles so, if you like, the GEM evolution versus the ECM solution. Further into FI and the signal for northern blocking remains with only two or three members keeping the Atlantic as the dominant force. The northern blocking varies in position and orientation considerably. In summary, two possible evolutions into medium term this morning. The GEM evolution keeps the weather settled with the Azores HP ridge taking over once the weekend's Atlantic incursion disrupts and retreats NW. The ECM/GFS OP solution is messier and brings low heights over Europe into play with enough energy phasing from the disrupting Atlantic trough to invigorate the trough over Europe which spreads north. The question then is one of energy transfer - with GEM there is no transfer of energy and the anticyclonic ridge builds back through the British Isles but with ECM and GFS enough energy spills SE across the British Isles to re-invigorate the European trough and send it north. Which model is correct or are both wrong ? As ever, more runs are needed.
  23. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Morning all With a decent weekend heaving into view, how are we looking as the weekend after that approaches ? When I last looked a couple of days ago, there were plenty of hints the anticyclonic spell might break down to something more unsettled so let's move ahead to Sunday May 13th starting as always with the ECM 00Z at T+240: A decent evolution for many from ECM with the weekend's cell of HP easing east to be replaced by another midweek which in turn moves over Scandinavia. The T+240 char tis a little messy but with the jet held well to the north you'd think settled conditions would dominate especially for southern and central parts. A shallow area of LP to the west of Scotland doesn't look to be doing anything much at this time with the large Azores HP dominating to the west. Over Europe low heights have been pushed well to the south and south east. GEM 00Z at the same time: A much more unsettled evolution from a model which has previously played the anticyclonic card very strongly. The weekend HP eases to the east by Wednesday but there is no second cell as per ECM. Instead, a much more active Atlantic brings LP and frontal systems toward the British Isles. The feature to the north of Scotland is in fact a secondary LP which swung NE across Ireland being gales and heavy rain to western parts. The forecast would be rain or showers for all with the heaviest rain in the north. Hint of a brief ridge coming through before further LP systems move in off the Atlantic. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: Again, more unsettled. As per GEM, an active LP sweeps in from the Atlantic passing to the NW of Scotland and by T+240 is easing away NE with a residual trough over northern parts while there are signs of pressure rising further south. Further into FI and an unusual evolution as LP develops over central Europe and moves WNW across the British Isles so a potentially cool and quite wet spell of weather around mid month. GFS 00Z Control at the same time: The evolution in Control is similar to the OP if a shade more progressive. The deep LP moves away more quickly to the north and fills leaving a small trough over northern parts. Another curious evolution further into FI - pressure rises over Scandinavia and falls over Europe and a small but active LP moves west across southern Britain leaving all parts in a warm SE'ly. The GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 The Mean suggests encroaching LP from the NW and there are only a couple of GFS members with anything like an ECM evolution so suggests that may be a shade of an outlier. Most have LP passing to the north of the British Isles but two or three hint at disruption SE across the British Isles and into Europe so possibly one to watch. Further on and there's plenty of northern blocking but we've seen it before in high-res and it rarely comes through to low-res so at this stage I'd say the signal past mid-month is there is no strong signal at this time. In summary, a fine spell through this weekend and into the middle of last week looks unlikely to continue much further. ECM tries to continue it but looks isolated as both GEM and GFS bring in more unsettled conditions off the Atlantic. GFS explores some synoptically unusual solutions further into FI but that's a long way off.
  24. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Morning all After yesterday's winter-like day in lowland East London, we start a new month with a considerable improvement - the Sun out and the temperatures on the up. The weekend ahead looks set fair which will please many but where do we go from there ? Plenty of possibilities yesterday and let's move to the end of next week, Friday May 11th, for this morning's medium term model analysis Starting as always with the ECM 00Z OP for T+240: Reminiscent of yesterday's 00Z GFS OP - the first HP for the weekend declines but new heights build to the north and north east of the British isles so by T+240 it's generally settled but with a cool NE'ly breeze across southern parts. The next LP is negatively tilted and it would be fascinating to see if it would dive SE to the west of Ireland (as GFS OP did yesterday).. On then to GEM 00Z at the same time: GEM was very anticyclonic yesterday and remains so today but as yesterday a hint of change at the end of the run and as yesterday it's worth looking south as the trough develops over France and, combined with falling heights to the west, my view would be the warm settled outlook would degrade to showers and something much less settled. Let's see if the trend continues through tomorrow. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: An increasingly unsettled outlook as LP has moved down from the west of Iceland to be just off North West Scotland with frontal bands crossing the country albeit with only light rain for the south east. Further into FI and the unsettled picture continues with LP close to the north-west of much of the run. GFS 00Z Control at the same time: Not a million miles from the OP but with a more intense LP close to western Britain so rain and strong winds for Ireland. Further into FI and the LP disrupts to the north west as heights build again to the north as was a feature of 00Z low-res yesterday. The 00Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 While the OP and Control scenarios aren't without support in the suite the majority call is to retain the anticyclonic domination with HP close to or to the north east of the British Isles more aligned to the ECM solution. Further into FI and the strong signal for northern blocking remains undiminished with HP close to or to the north of the British Isles across the ensemble members. In summary, fine weather for the Bank Holiday and continuing through next week on the models but a hint of a change at the end of next week with LP encroaching from the NW or south and heights falling to the west suggesting a more thundery and wet outlook for many. This looks short-lived for the north with HP returning by mid month but the south remains potentially warm and unsettled with the risk of thundery showers or rain. Today's bonus chart comes from T+5736: Fine and frosty for the British Isles with, as usual, the coldest air just missing us and a white Christmas for the south of France.
  25. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Morning all A pretty disappointing start to the week here in lowland East London with rain and a cold wind but change is the only constant when it comes to our weather and it's looked likely for some time the first May Bank Holiday Weekend will be decent but what happens from there. Today the medium term analysis takes us to Thursday May 10th and starts with the ECM 00Z at T+240: The fine spell over the BH weekend breaks down next week as the HP declines far enough east to open the door to the trough and more than a hint from this chart that the LP could slip SE into Europe and change things considerably. For now, a gradual cooling with rain or showers encroaching from the north west. GEM 00Z at the same time: Anticyclonic and settled would be my take on the GEM run this morning. The HP for the Bank Holiday weekend is easing away but the ridge from the Azores id heading NE through Ireland and western Scotland so a continuation of decent weather. Note the shallow LP to the south however which brings a risk of showers to extreme southern areas but most places will be fine and dry. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Another evolution from GFS. The HP keeps well to the north and the LP becomes a cut-off feature well to the west of the British Isles so for most the weather remains warm and settled but with a growing risk of rain or showers for south western parts. Note also the profile around Greenland which in contrast to ECM and GEM and shows heights and warmer air. Further into FI and heights remain strong to the north throughout with winds mainly from the east. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: Very different again. Weaker heights to the NE and the trough coming SE into Ireland and western Britain so a much more unsettled prospect. Further into FI and the LP initially is close to southern Britain before retreating slightly SW and at far FI the OP and Control are actually quite close in terms of evolution with Control setting up an easterly pattern. The 00Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 The key message to my eye is HP is close to or just to the north or north east of the British Isles but little sign of a strongly Atlantic pattern with only two or three Members suggesting it by this time. Further into FI and there's a surprising lack of spread suggesting a strong signal for northern blocking for the middle of the month and beyond. In summary, after the forthcoming fine weekend plenty of disagreement over future developments. ECM and GFS suggest a breakdown from the NW with the trough dropping close to (GFS Control, ECM OP) or to the west of the British Isles (GFS OP) with only GEM OP keeping the weather relatively settled though with hints of problems for the south and indeed further into FI the signal of heights to the south with pressure lower over the south and south west seems to be quite noticeable as we move into the middle of the month and beyond but we often see this in low-res and it doesn't translate as we come into high-res. Anyway, some pleasant days in the near future to enjoy.
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