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About stodge

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    Mr Stodge

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    East Ham, London

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  1. Afternoon all Completely FI and probably completely unsupported but: This would probably bring the colour back to your cheeks !! Chilly spell following: It won't happen though.
  2. Morning all It is of course taking longer for the houses and the brickwork to release the heat so another warm night last night but the hope with today's rain and cooler air and some open windows we'll continue the return to normality. The weather though looks uninspiring - currently only light drizzle here in East London. but I note ther current NW radar showing some heavier rain in the Channel and some lively storms around Guernsey and Alderney.
  3. Morning all General agreement (though not on the detail) of LP encroaching from the NW and crossing the British Isles through the second half of the weekend and into early next week so a disappointing few days after the spell we've enjoyed or endured (delete as appropriate) with temperatures closer to what we would expect and some of the wet stuff though not perhaps in the quantities some would like. After that (really from this time next week) it becomes much more confused - ECM settles us into an uninspiring westerly so average for all but GFS 00Z OP tries to build back in the Azores HP in various ways as does GEM but it's a little uncertain and half-hearted at this stage but obviously more runs are needed.
  4. stodge

    Spain weather

    Looking at the latest Arpege and Hirlam models I'm not convinced the temperature record will go tomorrow or even Sunday. It looks as though the Spanish-Portuguese border will top at 46c but I don't see a 48 or 49c on offer though it may be someone somewhere gets very close.
  5. Morning all :) Not sure about wading into this bad-tempered bear-pit today but I'm past caring. Some of the more outlandish 850HPA charts when this coming weekend was in low-res haven't materialised and we're back to the dilemma we've always had with two competing scenarios. In Scenario A the HP builds across the country then breaks from its parent Azores cell and meanders east into the North Sea or Scandinavia. This allows a S'ly or SE'ly feed of hot air to come from the Continent but pressure falls to the west and we get a thundery breakdown as the trough crosses the country easy to west before HP builds in again from the SW and the process re-starts. This is the traditional "three fine days and a storm" scenario with a period of building heat reaching a crescendo before storms and fresher air cause a re-set. In Scenario B the HP stays out to the west and never encroaches or the ridge builds across the UK but never breaks from the parent cell. This keeps us dry, warm or very warm but doesn't allow for the encroachment of hot air as the feed is from a N'ly or E'ly quarter across the south. This is our "fine summer spell" weather - lovely for the holidaymakers with onshore breezes but no exceptional heat or storms. There were and remain charts showing renewed northern blocking and retrogression and this would ruin August as we'd get the trough dropping into Scandinavia and a cool N'ly setting up down the North Sea. However, theses are far from certain but the truth is that old modern wives tale I've just made up: "if the core of the High be in the west neither heat nor storms will we get" "if the core of the High doth move east there'll be too much heat for man and beast" (I know, needs some work). Both GFS and GEM play to Scenario A but Scenario B has its supporters too keeping the heat well to the south. "
  6. Here in lowland East London I'm showing 33c which is blisteringly hot. City Airport is 34c which is just off Heathrow - will anywhere reach 36c today, not sure ?
  7. Afternoon all I don't see this concensus for heat at the end of next week and the beginning of the following week that some can see from the 06Z GEFS. First, it's low-res and FI when we're talking T+276 charts or beyond. That's not to say they can't or won't verify but nothing can be taken for granted at this stage. Looking through the members, yes, there are a number which bring the 20c 850HPA up to and across southern parts but there are a good number which don't. Yes, the heat builds to the south and through Iberia, no question, but it's far from clear to this observer that the hot air will reach our shores at this time. Yes, it might still be fine but more in the realms of very warm than very hot. As ever, more runs are needed.
  8. Late morning all :) One of the runs yesterday showed a classic retrogressing HP into Greenland - a beautiful thing though not for fans of heat as the NNE air flow introduced would cool things down significantly. The modelling of next weekend's push of heat remains from clear - the 06Z OP looks to be heading down a very toasty route with the 20c 850HPA reaching the SW on Monday 7th: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018072606/gfs-1-276.png?6 Two points though a) the heat keeps getting delayed and hasn't made it into low-res and b) there remains considerable variation (compare with a relatively cooler 00Z). If you want heat, the HP has to disrupt east to bring up the hot air from Iberia - if it retreats west, the flow will be from the N or NW and the hot air stays to the south. The former offers much more storm potential, the latter would likely see a quieter transition to cooler conditions.
  9. Evening all Have to say it looks like a step or two back from the heat-topia of earlier runs. Thursday and Friday this week look hot for the SE and certainly 33c looks likely but a significant breakdown through the weekend with much cooler air pulling temperatures back to a much more agreeable 25c or so. The end of next week remains in low-res so forecasting very difficult - the signs for a new thrust of heat north from Africa and Spain across France are clear but from previously looking as though Friday 3rd would be the climax of the heat with the 20c 850 crossing England, it now seems to be Sunday 5th and Monday 6th which could be the hottest days but the 20c 850 doesn't quite make it before the Atlantic pushes cooler air back in. This is from the 12Z GFS OP - the 06Z parallel was underwhelming but the 12Z Control kept the heat through to the end of the week after next especially, oddly enough, in the SW. More runs are needed but I don't see records in danger just yet.
  10. Afternoon all Couldn't find a German Weather thread so started one to report back on the recent River Rhine cruise Mrs Stodge and I (along with the out-laws) enjoyed. We started in Basel and travelled via Breisach, Speyer, Rudesheim, Koblenz and Cologne to Duisburg. We arrived in Basel on Thursday 12th July to temperatures close to 30c and the following day went up to the Schynige Platte on the little train from Wilderswil. Fantastic up at 6000 feet, cooler (probably around 20c) but still mainy sunny and able to get clear views of the Jungfraujoch which I gather doesn't happen every day. On the Saturday the morning was in the beautiful town of Breisach and the afternoon on a coach trip to Titisee in the Black Forest. After a sunny start, the cloud gathered in the afternoon but it was still 28c at the lake. Monday in Speyer and then cruising up to Rudesheim was very warm again with maximum values pushing 31c. Some cloud but still plenty of sunshine. From Rudesheim on the Tuesday morning up the Rhine Gorge to Koblenz - in the afternoon, more noticeable cloud and quite a strong wind in the Gorge with thunderstorms close by. Koblenz was hot at 32c. Wednesday saw us in Cologne and again very warm or hot in the city and temperatures above 30c but a coolong breeze on the deck of the ship by the river in the evening. Thursday in Duisburg and the same again - mainly fine and hot but with clouds in the afternoon. The heatwave or "HItzewelle" is all over the German media and plenty of dramatic pictures from the wildfires in northern Sweden and Finland and some extraordinary temperatures in that part of the world.
  11. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    I certainly think we could have some short-term pain for some longer-term gain if the longer-term signals are correct and the pattern shifts to HP developing to the east rather than the SW or NW. As the Azores HP slackens and LP moves in, a longer or shorter spell of more unsettled conditions looks feasible before the new pattern establishes but that might mean LP sitting over the British Isles with the attendant poor conditions.
  12. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Afternoon all The 06Z Parallel is also pushing the idea of a breakdown from the NW from mid month Parallel FI not one for the sun-worshippers, almost autumnal with LP in charge. The 06Z OP tries to build heights to the far north which pushes the jet back south and pulls the Azores HP back SW. Well, maybe, but I'm not convinced and it's all FI for now but certainly perhaps a sign the light at the end of the tunnel is the Breakdown Express.
  13. Morning all :) Apologies for invading this thread but Mrs Stodge and I were touring round southern Ireland last week and it was absolutely phenomenally magnificently glorious. A noticeable Easterly wind in Dublin and Waterford and along the southern coast tempered the weather slightly in the early part of last week but we got to Killarney last Tuesday and enjoyed two fantastic days in Kerry. Slightly hazy and cloud came in one evening to spoil the sunset over the Lakes but the temperatures were in the mid 20s so very pleasant with low humidity. From Killarney we drove north to Galway and spent two days in what I can now describe as Ireland's Oven. The Cliffs of Moher were scorchingly hot with temperatures pushing above 30c and a hotel room in central Galway without air conditioning almost unbearable. In Connemara last Thursday we were over 30c but I think Shannon Airport hit 32c on Thursday as well. Driving back across to Dublin, the Midlands were warm but back on the coast the refreshing breeze made for a pleasant evening strolling around Temple Bar. Fascinating to see the synoptics favouring the heat for the west so strongly and no surprise but the thermal gradient even on such a small land mass was interesting. Galway and Connacht were much hotter than Dublin and Leinster. While the temperature record was set at Kilkenny, I think a station like Shannon Airport, Athenry or Mullingar must be favoured next time. A beautiful country and a wonderful week but a sense we can never go back as it will never be that good again.
  14. stodge

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Morning all A return for the morning medium term analysis from me. After a synoptically fascinating late winter and spring with the latter starting with an incredibly cold spell and ending with one of the warmest and sunniest May months for decades, where does summer go from here ? It's actually quite cool and uninspiring in London Town this evening but where will we be on or around Midsummer (at least in solstice terms) ?: ECM 00Z at T+240 (Friday June 22nd): A typical summer chart for NW Europe with the Azores HP ridging strongly NE and a weak jet held well to the north. Decent conditions - warm but not hot with a gentle NW'ly flow and always the risk of damper and murkier conditions on western coasts and hills. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: Much more solidly anticyclonic with the ridge over Ireland and NW Britain so a cooling NE'ly breeze for southern and eastern areas meaning it's pleasant rather than oppressively hot. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: The Azores ridge has a more easterly tilt so crosses southern parts with most of the British Isles covered by a balmy WSW'ly flow. Fine and warm especially in the south but cloudier and mistier to western coasts and hills. GFS 00Z Parallel at the same time: Not hugely different from the OP. GFS Control at the same time: Closer to the GEM. In summary, it's quite settled vs very settled as we move to the end of next week and those attending the last couple of days of Ascot should be fine in their finery (so to speak) with comfortable to warm temperatures but nothing excessively hot or humid on offer. Dry for many if not most but western coasts always vulnerable to a muggier Atlantic and some drizzle and low cloud at times, It's not very interesting synoptically in all honesty but it's summer weather - beyond that the question is whether the ridge relaxes back SW or cuts away to the NE and that might be of much more interest.
  15. The East Ham Storm was truly impressive. Looking back at the NW Radar, the storm developed out of nothing to the east of Romford and Hornchurch at 6.15pm and rapidly developed more or less in situ with the heaviest rain and hail (though little thunder and lightning) over East Ham at 6.45pm. Last night, the storm developed just to the north (over Ilford and Walthamstow) but that moved away NNW to join the chain of storms from London moving NW through Birmingham. Tonight's storm brought a wild 15-20 minutes of hail and intense rain (I've no measuring equipment but the rain rate would have been impressive) before the whole thing started to move WSW toward central and SW London. A hang-back of cloud has remained but the humidity has eased fractionally. It's interesting to see the area to the NE of London being a formation area for storms two days in a row. I wonder why ? It's a little way from the Thames Estuary and there's not much high ground so I don't know why storms should be forming here.