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stodge

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About stodge

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  1. I'm being slightly provocative, Rob. ECM at T+264 isn't an easy chart to call and you have to hope heights will rise over Scandinavia otherwise it's probably game over as the Atlantic re-asserts. GFS calls time on the cold spell as does JMA which does so incredibly quickly. With UKMO there's no route back for milder air as far as I can see. Maybe GFS is being over-progressive as it often is but JMA takes the cold air so far north the milder air gets in to the south. The thing is everyone today has complained about "southward correction" but ARPEGE is looking like a solid chart for cold if it can get the HP into Greenland. My chart of the day so far is NAVGEM 12Z at T+180: FIM 12Z at the same time close behind: Note how the LP are kept far to the south.
  2. The more I look at the UKMO the more I like it. The T+168 posted by Summer Sun above confirms there's absolutely no route in for milder air from the south or south west. The Atlantic LPs are over the Azores and Portugal. The airflow over the UK looks from the north and we can only speculate on any disturbances in the colder air over Scandinavia. I know a lot of people want deep snow but I'd prefer extended cold so for me UKMO is far superior to GFS and ECM this evening.
  3. Evening all JMA is very disappointing with the cold air gone by Thursday in the south: As for 12Z ECM, it ends up not unlike the morning models with a large complex trough covering much of northern and western Europe. The westward movement of the HP takes us toward west-based negative NAO territory but is useful in stopping the PV remnant setting up in its usual place: The models this morning were hinting strongly at a second pressure rise over Scandinavia well into FI. That ought to happen in the absence of heights anywhere else and IF it does it should prolong the cold for western Europe. The deep cold pool over Scandinavia should promote height rises - it may be we'll have a milder interlude before cold returns or we may not. My view tonight is there is plenty of confusion from as early as this time next week - JMA is one extreme but ECM offers an extended cold period.
  4. Resurrecting this thread for a brief look at Cape Morris Jessup which as we all know is named after the American philanthropist who financed Robert Peary's expedition to Greenland in 1900. Peary believed that Cape Morris Jessup was the most northerly piece of solid land - the North Pole being surrounded by water or ice. In 1980, the DMI or Danmarks Meteorologisk Institut set up a weather station. As you might imagine, it doesn't normally get warm at this time of year at Cape Morris Jessup and yesterday was only the third occasion since 1980 that the temperature moved above freezing for a 24 hour period in February The first was in 2011 and the second last year. http://www.dmi.dk/nyheder/arkiv/nyheder-2018/februar/plusgrader-i-nordgroenland/ The rise in temperature was attributed to a Foehn-type wind which develops when warmer air and an HP set up over the Greenland plateau and draws in a long-fetch SE'ly of warmer air.
  5. A couple of points worth making: 1) The instabilities within the cold pool are going to be very difficult to forecast at this range and because the severity of the cold pool isn't comething we normally experience in the British isles, it may be difficult for us as well. Analogous to troughs within an unstable Arctic flow I would imagine. 2) It's worth repeating if you want a protracted cold spell you don't want to see a lot of snow early. With the cold pool promoting instability and lowering heights, yes, you get the snow but it opens the door to the south and west for a return of milder air as shown on GFS at T+240: Snow falls on Tuesday, melts by Saturday. A more sustainable cold evolution needs the HP to be stronger to the north and north west and that may mean less initial excitement for snow fans but the likelihood of 7-10 days of severe cold weather rather than 2-3 which is on offer with the so-called "better" GFS.
  6. Afternoon all Oh dear, plenty of people confusing their 500s and their 850s. The 850s still excellent with -12 uppers for most of England on Tuesday. Same with GFS OP. GEM slightly slower but the spread of lower uppers a bit wider. It's back to the trade off - IF the HP is too far north the LP to the south will draw up milder air and your cold spell becomes a cold snap. Slightly weaker cold and slightly less snow means greater longevity and chances for severity.
  7. Morning all Another day, another set of shredded nerves it would seem. Will it snow ? Will it snow where I am ? How deep will the snow be ? Why isn't the cold coming sooner ? I want my -20 uppers back, I'm not settling for -15 because that'll b e like a summer's day. Before the Mods get too perturbed, let's get right down to business with my daily look at the medium range output which today takes us to Saturday March 3rd: Starting as always with the ECM 00Z at T+240: The run ends with the British Isles under a light NE'ly flow between HP over Greenland and LP over Poland. -8 uppers have returned to northern and eastern areas with -4 uppers further south and west. With a small kink in the isobars over the south east you'd expect wintry showers with more settled conditions to the north and west. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: An unstable NNW'ly flow across the British Isles at this time. HP over Greenland is countered by a complex trough centred over northern Italy with a secondary centre in the northern North Sea. -12 uppers remain in the south but slightly less cold air is filtering down from the NW in the slack flow. Wintry showers continue to eastern and northern coasts but generally cold and dry elsewhere. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: A light ESE'ly flow over the British Isles in the circulation of a complex trough with the main centre over the western Mediterranean and secondary centres to the east over the western Black Sea coast and to the north west over southern Ireland. IN the slack flow, heavy snow showers or longer spells of snow look likely with -12 uppers in the south and east and -8 uppers elsewhere. Further into FI the trough expands into the Atlantic though it remains a complex feature with multiple secondary centres keeping the weather very unsettled with rain or snow but the latter increasingly confined to the north and high ground as milder air moves in from the south west. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: Continues the theme of a developing and expanding European trough (MJO Phase 2 anyone ?) with main centres over Romania, the Channel and to the south of Iceland. The British Isles is in -12 uppers so snow for all especially in the south. As is often the case, the GFS is keen and progressive in FI to promote "normal service" so the trough splits and migrates to the Atlantic pulling up much milder air into western Europe albeit very unsettled with gales and rain at times. At the far end of FI, signs of new height rises over Scandinavia. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: The British Isles remains in a ENE'ly flow between the Greenland HP and a complex LP over Italy. -8 uppers continue over southern Britain with slightly warmer air further north. Further into FI, LP to the SW swings NE than NW to the west of Ireland bringing in rain, wind and much milder air but at the far end of FO heights are rising again over Scandinavia with indications the LP is set to return SE re-introducing colder air. The GEFS from the 06Z at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Strong agreement on the development of a complex and large European trough - some members have it further north and east than the OP and others have a centre over the British Isles but the net effect is the same - a more unstable flow with the likelihood of snowfall for many. In summary, there are clear signs of the next significant pattern development into the medium term. As the Scandinavian HP retrogresses to Greenland and sets up to the NW, heights fall over Europe leading to the establishment of a complex European trough with a number of centres. In the residual very cold air left from next week, this is likely to maintain the cold and wintry outlook with the likelihood of more snow for many though amounts and details are far from settled. ECM is perhaps the only model not wholly embracing the European trough at this stage keeping it more toward Scandinavia but heading south and west. GFS seems determined to shunt the trough further west and pull in a much warmer air source further on and it's possible we may see a transient much milder spell in the second week of March but there are clear signs of heights returning to Scandinavia in far FI on GFS and these are worth keeping an eye on for mid March onwards.
  8. Morning all Another day of stellar output for many yesterday as the long-awaited and well-forecasted (by a few) SSW-related cold spell heaves into view. I'm going to, as usual, look beyond the immediate and eschew discussion of snow levels and locations for early next week and concentrate on the medium term which this morning takes us to Friday March 2nd. I thought much of the GFS output yesterday in particular was worryingly progressive in bringing Atlantic systems from the south and south-west and re-introducing milder air into the south and south east quite quickly - within 72 hours in some instances. For those wanting cold to continue, we need to keep the jet running far to the south and the LP systems moving into Europe. Anyway, let's see where we are on the morning output starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: A complex picture. An LP has developed over Ireland and deepened in situ while another runs east in the Mediterranean basin. With strong heights over Greenland and a residual HP over Scandinavia, the British Isles is in a cold or very cold E'ly airflow which is quite unstable so frequent snow showers or longer periods of snow for many. 850s of -12 cover the vast majority of the British Isles so snow will settle, accumulate and drift in the moderate winds. I'm not too sure where the evolution will go from here. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: For fans of cold and snow this is about as good as it gets. A strong HP over Greenland ridges SE toward the British Isles. LP is moving NE over central France with small shallow features in the Atlantic. The British Isles is in a cold NE'ly flow with snow showers to eastern and northern coasts and longer spells of snow to south eastern counties. 850s of -12 across the south but a very sharp temperature gradient over France.so plenty of rain and snow for them which might exacerbate flooding problems in the Paris basin. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: Something slightly different with the British Isles under a complex trough with centres to the NE and another LP to the NW of Spain. It's starting to look like a west-based negative NAO but for now the 850s are still -12 in most reas so plenty of snow showers for many with longer spells of snow for the far north east. Further into FI and it remains a complex evolution though cold weather generally holds on with signs of new height rises over Scandinavia. GFS 00Z Control at the same time: The LP is over southern England having moved up from the south west and milder air has returned to the south east bringing rain and a thaw. Plenty of snow still to be had further north. However, the LP retreats south further into FI and re-introduces colder air briefly but pressure rises in southern Scandinavia introduce a milder more SE'ly flow at the end of FI so quite close to the OP. Looking at the GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=240 Many keep things very cold over the British Isles but it would be wrong to argue there isn't or aren't alternatives bringing milder air in from the south. With other models keeping the British Isles in the freezer this could, perhaps be an example of a typically over-progressive GFS but we'll see. In summary, one of the best sets of mid-term synoptics I've ever seen if you want an alternative to traditional Atlantic south westerlies. The duration and severity of the cold and snow for early next week is something I'll leave to others but by the end of next week most models keep some exceptionally cold air over the British Isles. Within that flow there's plenty of instability to produce snow and perhaps large amounts of it and no marginality issues for most. Temperatures close to or below freezing even at daytime maximum for many would be unprecedented in recent times at this time of year. GFS still sniffs around a warmer evolution with milder air coming in from the south but GEM and ECM are keeping the LP systems well to the south and we await a possible "re-load" from the NE if the Siberian vortex lobe drops right but that's a long shot at this time.
  9. Afternoon all Late to the discussion party today as I have a life beyond forecast charts, model output and the like. Last evening, on a rare weekend foray into the thread, I opined we might face a stand-off or trade-off in terms of medium term evolution (I'll leave the agonising over T+72 - T+96 to others) between a short, intense, very cold snowy spell followed by a substantial thaw from the south and a more extended colder but drier period. The positioning of the controlling Scandinavian HP is vital - too far north and the immediate chances of snow and cold increase but leave us more vulnerable to the Atlantic from the west and south and especially so if we move to a west-based negative NAO. Too far south and while the longevity of cold is likely especially via retrogression to Greenland, there's less chance of snow which is after all what most here want. So it's a fine balancing act if you want both snow and an extended period of cold making sure we are on the cold side of the east-west trough. Some extraordinary output over the weekend, any single example of which would have reduced the forum to meltdown in the past four years. As it is, if the uppers are less than -12 it's a downgrade. Incredible. So where are we going into March with the charts of the first day of spring (allegedly) - starting with ECM 00Z at T+240: The HP has retrogressed but maintains a strong SE'ly ridge right down to the Bay of Biscay. A light NE'ly flow covers the British Isles with a small disturbance over Holland. 850s of -4 to -8 suggest some wintry precipitation to high ground but the far north west dry and fine. There is colder air to the NE again but the extent to which this can push SW remains to be seen. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: An intense HP over SE Greenland controls the weather with a ridge ESE across the Faeroes to Scandinavia. LP is over Iberia and in between the British Isles is in a strong E or ENE'ly flow. 850s are -12 over southern England with -16 uppers over Northern France. Any precipitation would be of snow with drifting in the strong winds and a pronounced wind-chill. Much drier over northern Scotland and Ulster though with severe overnight frosts. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: A large anticyclone over Greenland ridges SE toward the British Isles. Between that and LP over the Adriatic and Scandinavia a NNE'ly flow covers the British Isles. 850s generally between -4 and -8 as the coldest air departs south. Some wintry showers to southern and eastern coasts but drier further north and west. The cold weather is on its way out as a ridge pushes up from the south and very soon "normal service" is resumed with a westerly flow and much milder air. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: LP is over the Channel and an ESE'ly flow covers the British isles. Cold air remains to the north and west but much milder air is in to the SE but, I suspect, with plenty of rain and showers with snow further north as a transitional frontal band moves north and north-west. Further into FI a broadly Easterly flow remains in place with signs of as renewed pressure rise over Scandinavia at the very end of FI. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: Signs of a west-based negative NAO and a small LP has spun up from the SW and while currently over the SE of England is going to swing up the east coast with much milder air on its eastern flank while very cold air (850s of -8 to -12) remains to the west over the bulk of England and Wales. Further into FI and it turns milder for all briefly before the winds swing back NE'ly and a new plunge of very cold air looms. Looking at the T+240 GEFS: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Some seem to want to bring milder Atlantic air from the SW via the west-based negative NAO, others go for an attack from the south but a lot of members are still very cold at this time. Going further into FI and I note a growing tendency for the GEFS to indicate a flow from the N or NE returning some very cold air across the British Isles. In summary, another day of extraordinary chart output but little is resolved. GFS seems keen to promote a breakdown at the T+240 stage but they may just be playing the progressive card and indeed signs even within the GEFS suite any milder spell could be quite short-lived. No such issues with ECM and GEM which keep Britain firmly in the cold - both promote retrogression but fans of snow will prefer GEM which has more possibilities than ECM which keeps the stronger anticyclonic influence.
  10. Evening all Well, I'll be in the minority here and say if you want an extended cold spell the 12Z ECM is absolutely superb. If you want a snowy spell, I can appreciate your disappointment. Let's look at GFS 12Z OP at T+240: Yes, it's a wonderful snowy chart but the movement is south to north and the coldest of the 850s are going to be mixed out from the south so a short intense snowy spell before a thaw and plenty of rain under the trough and -4 uppers which in early March won't deliver to lower ground. ECM doesn't "fail" because of what happens early but how the HP is modelled. At T+168 all looks fine: You might expect or hope the HP would stay where it was or meander slightly west but the orientation and latitude are pretty much perfect to send the coldest air right across the British Isles but instead the HP moves SW through Scandinavia and to the NW of the British Isles: At T+216 MSLP is 1040MB for most of us which equals dry albeit with -12 uppers across the south so hopefully brilliantly sunny days and cold frosty nights but obviously for snow fans poor. At T+240 the HP retrogresses to Greenland and the 850s are uninspiring: The key though is the wind-flow is NE so no possibility of a mild breakdown from the south or west - the cold is with us and staying and with further retrogression wouldn't we see a renewed cold incursion from Scandinavia as the trough drops down there ? Frustrating of course for many if not most but here's where we may have the next trade off or stand off. On the one side, a short and intense snowy spell especially for the south but with milder conditions returning from the south or a protracted cold and dry spell. I know most on here would like to have their cake and eat it too and that's NOT off the table even with this one OP run. Let's see how the HP is modelled on the morning output - I mentioned in my previous how a number of the ECM ENS had brought the HP further south into southern Norway and I suspect this OP may be reflecting that. At least we are talking about the probability of cold and the possibility of snow which puts us well ahead of where we normally are at this time.
  11. Afternoon all A rare foray from me into the lion's den of the MoD at the weekend but this seems a weekend unlike most. UKMO at T+144 next Saturday: One of the concerns I've had looking at ECM ENS and some GEFS members has been the HP positioned too far south - more around Denmark - so the ambient air pressure over the UK is above 1030MB which wouldn't be conducive for the kind of snowfall many on here want to see. I like this chart because the MSLP across the south is 1015-1020 MB so if we are going to get some convection off the North Sea (Thames Streamer anyone ?) this is going to be a big help. GEM at T+144: Here are those little nuances that show how we haven't nailed this down at all YET, UKMO has the HP centred to the north of Scandinavia, GEM has a 1040 MB HP over Norway. The resulting MSLP over the British Isles is higher so it's drier and perhaps sunny to the west and north west. For all the later development, it's a case of close but not quite for snow fans - for cold fans, it's another hit. Here's the GFS OP at T+144: Somewhere between the two ? Well, I suppose, but the SW'ly tilt of the HP makes me wonder if the colder air will miss. However, the Ukrainian LP fills out over Denmark and the winds go lighter with the MSLP at 1015MB across the south so that looks good for snow as well. Here's your near ice day: Actually, no ice days for London on this but 1-2c on the last two days of the month won't feel warm at all. Plenty of opportunity for snow to lie to high ground and further north and even in lowland East London we might get lucky. Nothing lasts forever - 7-10 days of severe cold will be memorable and noteworthy in its own right but the GEFS are already, at the very edge of FI, sniffing round the next evolution. We'd all like to see the HP retrogress and ridge SE drawing in a NE'ly from Scandinavia with plenty of embedded troughs (P 17 from the 06Z suite) but that's far from certain and it's also possible a strong west-based NAO will set up taking us back to the milder side of the jet.
  12. Evening all A near ice day next Sunday for the east. Superb though this is, I'd put the 06Z a notch in front.
  13. Morning all Well, another day of twists and turns as the output oscillates from the stellar to the not-so-stellar. Before my daily analysis of the mid-term prospects, a thought or two on the evolution to a more blocked pattern and how it was going to happen. Originally, the models offered the Azores HP moving north then north-east to the west of the British Isles into northern Scandinavia. That then became the Azores HP ridging NE through the British Isles into Scandinavia and finally it was an area ridging SW from northern Scandinavia into the North Sea. Any one of these combined with the so-called "trigger" LP dropping south down the North Sea into Europe would pull in the fabled Easterly. Yet as of last evening, GFS and UKMO were moving away from any notion of height rises to the NE in spite of the MJO being in high amplitude phase 7. ECM< which had originally been reticent, had, however, come on board strongly (though to be fair its ENS had always been in support). So, three evolutions to bring height rises and all failing - why ? A thought for another day perhaps but let's see where we are now and where we might be going forward (with all the Shannon Entropy flying about for good measure) to Monday February 26th. Starting as always with ECM 00Z OP at T+240: The cold air is heading away north as the HP in Scandinavia slips SE but heights remains strong to the north at this time in the face of a deep LP in mid-Atlantic. After a period of snow the day before, much milder and wetter conditions moving up from the south. Note the lack of low heights over Europe but the jet remains focussed to the south so undercuts and sliders not off the agenda but the evolution looks milder at this time. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: A ridge from Greenland down SE into central Europe keeps most of the British Isles fine. Deep LP in the Atlantic is stationary and a secondary feature far to the south is in development but where will it go ? A secondary colder LP is tracking south over the Baltic States but whether the very cold air behind us can make any progress westward remains to be seen. It's a bit of a stand off between west and east to be honest. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: A very different evolution but not a million miles away from the 00z of yesterday. A piece of the PV detaches from the main vortex and moves east to the north of the British Isles allowing heights to rise over Greenland. HP is over the south west of the British Isles with a large slow-moving deep LP in mid-Atlantic so a fairly mild and benign outlook for most with perhaps any rain or showers restricted to the far north of Scotland and the Isles. Further into FI and the remnant PV lobe is shunted further west allowing pressure to rise over Greenland and the prospect of a mid-Atlantic block in early March with winds over the British Isles shifting more NW as colder air approaches. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: A mild or very mild SW'ly airflow covers the British Isles with HP over central Europe and weak areas of LP to the west and north running across Scandinavia. Further into FI and the unsettled theme continues with the jet edging south and the PV dissipating over Northern Canada. To bring us right up to speed, the GFS 06Z OP at T+234: A taste of spring rather than winter with a benign SW'ly airflow covering the British Isles with HP over Europe and parts of Scandinavia and LP tracking NNE on a northerly jet. Further into FI and there's very little change with a broad Atlantic domination and no sign of heights to the NE or NW even as the PV weakens and heads more toward the Pole. 00Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 A significant away from the easterly-dominated suite of yesterday morning though it's fair to say the easterly option is still there on a number of members. A growing number have eschewed height rises to the NE and keep the Atlantic in charge with deep LP heading toward Iceland. Further into FI and it's fair to say a growing number are showing heights over Greenland so that might be the next wild goose for us all to chase. 00Z GEM ENS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=1&mode=1&ech=240 Plenty of cold and indeed very cold option still on the table. In summary, the arrival of the SSW has brought model volatility on an unprecedented scale. Some output seems to be ignoring it, some seems to be embracing it. So what appears to have gone "wrong" with what seemed a huge prospect for an Easterly (and let's not forget ECM is still very much playing that tune) ? Well, perhaps it's three strikes and we're out in terms of the three routes to Scandinavian height rises all of which according to GFS have failed. GEM keeps heights as does ECM so it's far from a lost cause at this time. The downgrade in the GEFS 00Z is worrying so what and why ? My only theory is the wave 2 attack on the Canadian vortex isn't causing its immediate disruption and re-location as many hoped and surmised but is instead causing a temporary strengthening as we've seen from vortex attacks in the past. The initial tropospheric response has been to strengthen the PV in situ for 7-10 days before it finally weakens and shifts away. Perhaps in all our excitement about the SSW we've forgotten the basic physics of the wave 2 attack and the initial reaction which seems, according to GFS, to be happening irrespective of zonal wind flow reversal. So, to annoy us even further, we have the 10-14 day lag from the initial SSW augmented by a 7-10 day lag from the wave 2 assault which would put us into early March which seems to correspond with both the GFS output (some of it) and Glacier Point's excellent analysis from a couple of days back. It's also worth noting some of the quality Hi-Res models such as ARPEGE are still bringing in the E'ly via Route 3 (northern Scandinavian HP building SW) as early as T+102 so it's a model standoff worthy of Bun-fight at the OK Tearooms and one or more is going to end up looking like a crazed omelette. If you have any nerves left prepare for them to be shredded further in the next 48 hours.
  14. I'm not entirely convinced. The snowfall of Easter 2008 came off uppers between -5 and -10: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2008&maand=3&dag=23&uur=000&var=2&map=1&model=avn This set up on 11th March 2013 brought a near ice day to London http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2013&maand=3&dag=11&uur=000&var=2&map=1&model=avn That has most of the country under -10 uppers so it's not just the uppers, there are other factors to be considered such as Dew Points.
  15. Morning all Groundhog Day it would seem with more shattered nerves and thrown toys after the evening runs failed to live up to the expectations and hopes of a number of the more excitable participants. As usual, if the chart wasn't showing storm force easterlies and -20 uppers at T+6, people were "calling time" on the cold spell and having the useful half-baked whinging, whining and moaning which belongs in the other thread. Anyway, before I'm dispatched there, my morning summation of the medium term output which today takes us to Sunday February 25th or T+240 to its friends. Starting as always with ECM 00Z OP at this time: A very different evolution from previous days and I'm not sure why. Any attempt to build heights to the NE has been scrubbed and instead the Atlantic is firmly in charge with an LP pushing NE well to the north of the Faeroes and a mild SW'ly between that and heights over Europe. One thing worth noting from the Northern Hemisphere profile is it seems the LP has detached a part of the PV and while that doesn't seem able to encourage mid-Atlantic ridging it would like the residual vortex much weaker. That being said, it's a significant shift away from the modelling of previous days and it will be interesting to see where this sits in the ECM Ensembles. GEM 00Z at T+240: Very different from ECM and much more in line with what we've been seeing of late. A strong very cold ENE'ly airflow covers the British Isles with HP to the north and a classic LP over the Gulf of Genoa. -8 uppers cover the British Isles with -12 uppers approaching the East Coast so you can guess the rest. On then to the GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Yet another evolution. The HP develops over Scandinavia but the orientation isn't quite there at this time to fully advect the very cold air westwards so we have a SE'ly flow across the British Isles and the Atlantic LP systems are clearly slipping SE towards Iberia which would be a welcome sign for cold weather fans. However, that's not what happens in further FI - the Atlantic trough and the Ukrainian trough expand and meet across the British Isles producing some curious synoptics with, I suspect, a lot of rain for the south and snow for the north but the cold wins out and pushes the Atlantic back so by T+384 the cold is firmly in charge. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: Nearer the GEM than its own OP and a very solid chart for the cold weather fans with HP over Scandinavia and the colder air seemingly coming toward us. In further FI, the HP retrogresses to Greenland and the Scandinavian trough comes into play leaving the British Isles in a cold NNE'ly airflow with perhaps the coldest air more to the east but certainly still pretty chilly. The GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Still looking very solid for the E'ly. If I was being picky, I'd certainly say 3-4 members had more Atlantic influence but no more. GEM Ens at the same time: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=1&mode=1&ech=240 Mean looks solid and while there's more Atlantic influence than on GFS it still looks a solid suite for fans of cold. I don't normally include the UK MetO charts because they go up to T+144 at best - yep. In summary, we are still a long way from cross model agreement though both GFS and GEM have maintained their consistency. ECM's morning output will be a huge concern for cold weather fans and I can't explain it at this time. I glanced through the ECM members last night and found a solid majority backing northern blocking but the OP refuses to come on board and that will be a concern and rightly so. Having GFS and GEM solidly on side is a big plus and this morning's MetO output will have got many quite excited and given its reputation deservedly so. The other point is the cold isn't being pushed back as some claim - as MetO shows the right evolution can get it in earlier but the timescale of the 23rd-25th has always been where I've looked and that remains on course for the majority of output this morning. I do think the longevity of cold has been improved this morning if that's any consolation. I'm not going to dismiss the ECM output even if it is an outlier - it's an important model with solid verification numbers and it may be right. IF it is, it will deserve all the plaudits but this is still a long way from being nailed and I'm afraid for all of us the roller coaster is starting up again. Buckle Up !!
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