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About stodge

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    Mr Stodge

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    East Ham, London

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  1. Evening all Thought I would post this here rather than in the bearpit. My take on far FI is signs of the PV re-establishing so we aren't going to have three months of northern blocking and its' going to be a 7-10 day spell of below average temperatures before a reversion to something more "normal" but we'll see.
  2. Afternoon all Well, it's been hard to believe some of the charts coming out in past days - I still wish we were seeing these four to six weeks down the road with a frigid Europe but there you go. The NH profiles are remarkable and are more reminiscent of a post-SSW phase than early winter when you would expect the PV to be ramping up and a stream of LP systems to be forming and deepening as they move NE on a powerful jet stream.
  3. You have to remember many on here want snow while a small minority are happy with cold and don't care much about snow. As I often have to remind people, it's perfectly possible to get an ice day in London with an inversion - under fog the temperature is suppressed but not a flake of snow.
  4. Evening all I don't normally think about winter until mid January but it's hard not to get wrapped up in what may be something we've not experienced for years - a decent spell of fog and frost and an inversion. I've always gone with the adage "the road to extremely cold starts from extremely mild" - cold spells often materialise as the air flow flips suddenly from south or south west to east or north east. The classic is the Azores HP moving NE from the SW approaches to Scandinavia. I don't know if we will see anything remarkable from this at this stage but, as others have said, it makes a change from some late autumn/early winter charts when a 12-hour transient N'ly at T+360 is all we saw.
  5. Afternoon all I'm not wholly convinced at this time. I'm still seeing a lot of FI output dragging us back into a more zonal picture with HP sinking SE into Europe as the jet fires up. To be fair, the 06Z Parallel is a very different animal: Obviously a ridiculously long way away but in tune with some of the LRF signals. It should also be stressed none of this means three months of storm force easterlies and -20 850s for the UK (I'm fairly confident about that).
  6. stodge

    France weather

    Very interesting weather over France and western Europe today which will impact on the UK tomorrow and Wednesday. http://vigilance.meteofrance.com/Bulletin.html?a=dept2B&b Red warnings over Corsica for a storm called "Adrian" which has developed to the east of Sardinia as part of the "Genoa Low" we often get when an HP builds over Scandinavia and we get a NE or E'ly flow over the southern British Isles. This segment of the LP is going to move north over Corsica and transit up eastern France, through Belgium and continue moving north through the North Sea to the east of the British Isles. It's not going to deepen much further (around 984MB) but it will lead to very strong winds and thunderstorms over Corsica and the south of France (hence the warning). For the UK it will probably only mean a spell of rain for eastern coastal counties tomorrow.
  7. Evening all A rare early season visit from me but the ECM 12Z evolution tonight is fascinating. The Azores HP heads to New York for an early dose of Christmas shopping and the eastern Atlantic is left to LP forming to the NNW and coming SE across the British Isles and into NW Europe.
  8. Afternoon all Completely FI and probably completely unsupported but: This would probably bring the colour back to your cheeks !! Chilly spell following: It won't happen though.
  9. Morning all It is of course taking longer for the houses and the brickwork to release the heat so another warm night last night but the hope with today's rain and cooler air and some open windows we'll continue the return to normality. The weather though looks uninspiring - currently only light drizzle here in East London. but I note ther current NW radar showing some heavier rain in the Channel and some lively storms around Guernsey and Alderney.
  10. Morning all General agreement (though not on the detail) of LP encroaching from the NW and crossing the British Isles through the second half of the weekend and into early next week so a disappointing few days after the spell we've enjoyed or endured (delete as appropriate) with temperatures closer to what we would expect and some of the wet stuff though not perhaps in the quantities some would like. After that (really from this time next week) it becomes much more confused - ECM settles us into an uninspiring westerly so average for all but GFS 00Z OP tries to build back in the Azores HP in various ways as does GEM but it's a little uncertain and half-hearted at this stage but obviously more runs are needed.
  11. stodge

    Spain weather

    Looking at the latest Arpege and Hirlam models I'm not convinced the temperature record will go tomorrow or even Sunday. It looks as though the Spanish-Portuguese border will top at 46c but I don't see a 48 or 49c on offer though it may be someone somewhere gets very close.
  12. Morning all :) Not sure about wading into this bad-tempered bear-pit today but I'm past caring. Some of the more outlandish 850HPA charts when this coming weekend was in low-res haven't materialised and we're back to the dilemma we've always had with two competing scenarios. In Scenario A the HP builds across the country then breaks from its parent Azores cell and meanders east into the North Sea or Scandinavia. This allows a S'ly or SE'ly feed of hot air to come from the Continent but pressure falls to the west and we get a thundery breakdown as the trough crosses the country easy to west before HP builds in again from the SW and the process re-starts. This is the traditional "three fine days and a storm" scenario with a period of building heat reaching a crescendo before storms and fresher air cause a re-set. In Scenario B the HP stays out to the west and never encroaches or the ridge builds across the UK but never breaks from the parent cell. This keeps us dry, warm or very warm but doesn't allow for the encroachment of hot air as the feed is from a N'ly or E'ly quarter across the south. This is our "fine summer spell" weather - lovely for the holidaymakers with onshore breezes but no exceptional heat or storms. There were and remain charts showing renewed northern blocking and retrogression and this would ruin August as we'd get the trough dropping into Scandinavia and a cool N'ly setting up down the North Sea. However, theses are far from certain but the truth is that old modern wives tale I've just made up: "if the core of the High be in the west neither heat nor storms will we get" "if the core of the High doth move east there'll be too much heat for man and beast" (I know, needs some work). Both GFS and GEM play to Scenario A but Scenario B has its supporters too keeping the heat well to the south. "
  13. Here in lowland East London I'm showing 33c which is blisteringly hot. City Airport is 34c which is just off Heathrow - will anywhere reach 36c today, not sure ?
  14. Afternoon all I don't see this concensus for heat at the end of next week and the beginning of the following week that some can see from the 06Z GEFS. First, it's low-res and FI when we're talking T+276 charts or beyond. That's not to say they can't or won't verify but nothing can be taken for granted at this stage. Looking through the members, yes, there are a number which bring the 20c 850HPA up to and across southern parts but there are a good number which don't. Yes, the heat builds to the south and through Iberia, no question, but it's far from clear to this observer that the hot air will reach our shores at this time. Yes, it might still be fine but more in the realms of very warm than very hot. As ever, more runs are needed.
  15. Late morning all :) One of the runs yesterday showed a classic retrogressing HP into Greenland - a beautiful thing though not for fans of heat as the NNE air flow introduced would cool things down significantly. The modelling of next weekend's push of heat remains from clear - the 06Z OP looks to be heading down a very toasty route with the 20c 850HPA reaching the SW on Monday 7th: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018072606/gfs-1-276.png?6 Two points though a) the heat keeps getting delayed and hasn't made it into low-res and b) there remains considerable variation (compare with a relatively cooler 00Z). If you want heat, the HP has to disrupt east to bring up the hot air from Iberia - if it retreats west, the flow will be from the N or NW and the hot air stays to the south. The former offers much more storm potential, the latter would likely see a quieter transition to cooler conditions.