stodge

It looks as though our luck will run out at the end of next week as an area of HP finally gets in between the LP areas and intensifies as it moves east drawing up much warmer air from the south. GEM has the +20 850 crossing southern England briefly - others keep it just over the Channel but either way it will get warmer. Currently GFS are showing temperatures of 27-28c across London and the south east on the 12th and 13th - other models suggest higher temperatures on the 11th and easing off thereafter. It doesn't look like a long-duration hot spell but more akin to a "hot snap" of 24-36 hours before LP returns from the west. A lot of detail to be confirmed but it's something of which we should be aware and for which we should be prepared.

Evening all It would be churlish of us to begrudge the heat fans 36-48 hours of warmth especially after the coming week with a spell of unseasonably heavy rain for the south on Wednesday and a nice fresh (and reasonably long fetch N'ly for @Penguin16 for Thursday and Friday before another shallower LP for Saturday and a third for early next week. That last LP is the most interesting - it crosses southern Britain as a relatively shallow feature and then deepens over the southern North Sea to reach sub 990 MB over the coast south west of Denmark:

Evening all Once again, the evening's models offer little change in the current pattern up to T+240. Slack troughs roll in - we might see a quite vigorous feature at the end of next weekend but that's a long way off. I note heights building to the east - now, that can cause problems but on this occasion it works to our advantage as the LP moves through, tries to move east, is held around Denmark by the Russian bloc and then heads back WNW for a second run ove rus and keeps us in a WNW flow which keeps things pleasant. For almost all the GFS 12Z OP, the jet stream remains over or just to the south of the British Isles so nothing to worry about in terms of heat. Yes, GFS does indicate an incoming ridge but at T+372 I won't worry too much just now.

Evening all Have to say the GFS 12Z OP in FI is dominated by a hurricane which moves up the east coast and then towards the southern tip of Greenland which encourages the pressure rise to the north and west of the British Isles and we end up not with hot s'lies but unstable e'lies which could mean plenty of storms. It's a hurricane and anyone who thinks these are accurately forecasted this far out needs to have a sit down - it may not even form. Control doesn't even show it and keeps LP pretty much in charge up to mid August. To be fair, ex-tropical features can and do disrupt the pattern often by bringing energy further north but the effects aren't uniform. At this stage, nothing to be worried about and some of the signals for heat shown a few days back have eased off - we may well get more settled and warmer spells but warmer is relative - mid 20s not late 30s.

Well, GFS 12Z OP doesn't suggest a hot week as much as a hot 36 hours - it's a T+360 so for now, nothing too much to worry about. Should add no support from Control at this time.

I might have been wrong in my previous as tonight's GFS 12Z OP is another excellent output for those not wanting heat. Once again, our old friend the jet stream continues to run across southern Britain so shallow troughs come in from the west and north west and deepen a little as they reach us but keep us on the cool side of the street. A real rain maker develops over central France next weekend and tracks NE to Denmark via the Low Countries as an unseasonably strong LP with rain and wind - could be one to watch.

Evening all The problem with tonight's GFS 12Z OP is it's going to be very difficult to improve on it. The jet stream continues right through to T+384 running across southern Britain or fractionally further south so the heat stays away. The LP on Control in far FI would be a summertime horror show for early August but it might be the thing needed to break the pattern - the wave of shallow troughs moving from the NW seems to perpetuate the pattern.

Evening all Perhaps the first hint at the far end of GFS FI of the jet finally pushing north as we move into August. Oddly enough, if we can't have LP and w'lies, the next best thing is HP and NE'lies if we want to keep the heat at bay - Control looks to set HP up over Scotland and that would be an interesting development. Early days but one to note...

Evening all Steady as we go again tonight - the jet stream stays well to the south and the heat is forced well south as well. An alternating sequence of bright, sunny days with showers and some cloudier, wetter spells with quite noticeable winds for the time of year. Transient ridges offer the possibility of some drier days but through the end of month and even into early August there seems currently little change in the general pattern. The only note of caution is we need enough energy to move LP west to east across the British isles - what we don't want is LP stalling to the west as that's where the heat can develop. In truth. the jet seems consistent in moving LP through and keeping us on the cool side.

Evening all I see the ECM 12Z OP caused a frisson of panic in the main discussion thread with the prospect of a mid-Atlantic ridge leaving the downstream trough over the British Isles. The GFS 12Z OP continues to keep the jet over or just to the south and that's the key to keeping the European heat at bay. The 850s continue to show cooler air over the British Isles for the rest of the month while the +20 and above air is confined to the Mediterranean basin.

Evening all Once again ECM and GFS 12Z OP continue to keep the pleasant theme with the jet stream continuing to dive just to the south for much of the rest of the month keeping us on the cool side of the street. At the very end of the GFS run, in far off FI, there's a hint the jet will finally start to move back north as the Azores HP finally gets its act together and ridges in from the south west - that will bring in warmer but not necessarily hot weather.

Evening all Looking through this evening's models, the jet stream remains close to or just to the south of the British Isles for the immediate future. Perhaps a hint of a small shift north later next week but the GFS 12Z ends with a NW-SE jet streak through the British Isles so nothing warm there. ECM does offer a build of pressure from the west or south west so warmer but no chance of an advection of real heat from the south so probably comfortable enough for most.

Evening all Today has been okay and it'll be interesting to see how the breakdown tomorrow and Sunday manifests. GFS continues to keep the jet running over to close to southern Britain though the OP does try to build a ridge at the very end of FI though Azores ridges usually mean the heat is kept well to the south and we enjoy warmth instead. ECM also remains pleasant throughout - at T+240 the 850s are between +4 and +8 so nothing to worry about.

Yes, the jet stream remains to the south of the British Isles right through the 12Z GFS OP run and as long as that remains the case, the heat is held to the south as well. For us, pleasant westerlies from the Atlantic on the cool side of the jet and to the south the +20 850s are bottled up over the Med and Iberia.

Evening all While 12Z GEM tries to bring in a short-lived plume next weekend, 12Z GFS OP is a thing of beauty with the jet stream over southern Britain and indeed a notch further south at times. With LP to our north, pleasant cool Atlantic air for the first half of the month which will be fine. The concern now is the output showing the LP slowing too far to the west which would allow much warmer air to be advected over the British Isles.

One or two teases or hints of some improvement as we move further into July. The GFS OP is uninspiring while ECM OP (under the new regime) seems to continue the old tradition of a day 10 tease. The key is how and in what way can we get the jet stream to move back north - until it does, while it remains over or just to the south of the British Isles, there's little real prospect of the kind of summer weather and heat some on here seem to want.

Evening all We have another 36-48 hours of heat to endure in the south east - could be 31-32c tomorrow. The evening charts have cheered me up no end - as the jet stream kicks south and heights surge back into Greenland, we are mercifully on the cold side of the jet with LP never too far away for the rest of the month and well into July. Keeping the jet stream to the south keeps the heat well away - day time maxima settle around the low 20s (20-22c in London) with overnight minima in the low double figures (10-12). All much more comfortable and pleasant for us all. Rain too perhaps to keep the hayfever under some control but that may take a few more days to come through.

My hayfever the worst of the season so far - didn't sleep well and have felt tired all day. Hopefully this is the worst - I'm not really seeing any strong heat on the models tonight - the 20c 850 stays down over the Med and Iberia. Warm yes, perhaps very warm briefly early next week but nothing to panic about too much yet.

Afternoon all Just back from my lunchtime walk. It's warm and very warm in the sun but very pleasant in the shade with a refreshing NE'ly breeze keeping the humidity down. Tolerable for now.

It's also peak hay fever season and even more seem to be feeling the effects this year. I'm on the usual tablets and holding the line for now - fortunately in East London, we get a nice breeze off the Estuary which is (so far) making life just the right side of tolerable. Let's hope the +20 850 stays over Iberia or southern France for the next couple of months.

Evening all The prolonged period of dry anticyclonic weather goes on. The HP remains stuck between Iceland, Greenland and Scotland with the resulting cut off LP spinning round just to the NE of the Azores leaving the E'ly or NE'ly air flow strongest through the Channel. Our cruise ship trip to Guernsey last Friday was cancelled and it would have been the same today. It's a synoptic pattern we don't often see persist - I do recall one winter when we had long spells of HP between Iceland and Scotland - but this one looks locked in for the next 7-10 days at least. Further on, the HP looks to re-orient to a more north-south pattern and that allows a slack N'ly flow with a broad but shallow trough developing over southern Scandinavia so where anyone can see heat from at this stage I don't know - very early days for summer of course. Until we see any kind of a return to "normal" synoptics - the Azores HP being where it should be and some activity in the Atlantic - we're stuck in this curious synoptic rut with persistent heights to the north and north west and a cut off LP annoying the fish near the Azores. The broad but shallow LP over Europe may well provide some Mediterranean regions with unseasonal rainfall but for the British Isles it's all fairly simple. The south gets the wind and the cooler weather but for the north and I'd venture especially the North-West Highlands and Islands, it must be close to perfection. Sandwood Bay Beach must be sublime in conditions like this...

GFS 12Z OP, in far FI continues the retrogression theme with the Atlantic LP phasing with the European trough and re-invigorating the latter feature as the trough drops over Scandinavia so between heights to the north west and a broad but shallow trough to the south and east we get a flow of NNE winds over the British Isles as we head into mid June. With the Atlantic very quiet, there's nothing to disrupt the overall synoptic pattern which remains post-SSW final warming with heights over Greenland and a shallow trough over Europe. As we are now seeing, this can bring intense rainfall to parts of the Mediterranean as LP develops over the Med basin or moves up from Africa - Italy and Spain have been affected and I saw a couple of strong thunderstorms affecting Lisbon on Tuesday. The by-product is strong NE winds over northern Spain and Biscay. While we have enjoyed a spell of benign conditions the encroaching of the European trough may yet bring less settled conditions for the south in particular as rain and storms feed up from France.

Evening all A general thought or two: The Azores HP does ridge strongly north east through the early and middle parts of the coming week but the ridge isn't sustained and indeed the Azores HP declines south west fairly quickly. Indeed, after that, it becomes a bit player. Instead, we see a different synoptic evolution with heights persisting over Scandinavia and occasionally to the north of the British Isles and a broad but shallow trough covering most of western Europe with the lowest heights over Iberia and North Africa. It's an evolution that suggests heavy rain and showers for Europe and indeed southern Britain as well. The Atlantic is largely moribund but as we move towards the end of the month we see heights fall to the south west and the trough re-orientates NW-SE through the British Isles keeping the heights to the north east and south west while we keep light winds but the pressure remains low and daytime convection will do the rest. Others have mused on a warm and thundery spell as we head to the end of the month and I think that's very likely as we keep that instability to the south - not, I stress, a plume but a broader trough which could produce some quite heavy rain over parts of western and central Europe - the "European Monsoon" as someone once called it.

Evening all Glancing at the charts as we move past the middle of the month and a comment I made partly in jest about the northward movement of pressure systems keeps nagging at the back of my mind. It looks to me as though the Azores HP is pitching further north than usual and becoming more of a mid-Atlantic feature which in turn seems to re-enforce blocking to the north and east and leaves the trough over the British Isles and NW Europe or perhaps further south over Iberia . It certainly seems an extension of the post-SSW post-winter pattern - whether this is in any way connected to events elsewhere is above my pay grade. The one thing I'm still not seeing is an active Atlantic.

Evening all My only observation on the 12Z output is the degrading of the influence of Scandinavian heights in favour of a broad but shallow trough from the Atlantic by T+240. This would keep the weather unsettled to a point with showers and perhaps storms but nothing desperately cold or warm. Day time heating would trigger shower development and some could be heavy and prolonged with little or no wind. April Showers in May? It's happened before and it'll happen again. Much further into FI and some hints of the Azores HP becoming influential (or trying to) as we approach mid-May. There's quite a deep LP over North Africa and that keeps the Azores HP either out to the West or its ridging is less extensive. It has been argued the changes in weather patterns associated with a warming world would include the northward shift of equatorial or tropical pressure systems. That would, it seems to me, bring the unstable tropical LP further north perhaps into North Africa or even southern Iberia re-enforcing the traditional "heat low" as the temperatures rise. A sitting LP over south west Europe is going to have an impact on the summer weather pattern further north.