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About stodge

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    Mr Stodge

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    East Ham, London

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  1. Evening all Signs of more settled and warmer conditions later in the month which is something we often see in the UK. Having a look at the Northern Hemisphere profile from the GFS 12Z, it seems the heights over Greenland are broken down quickly by what seems to be an ex-Pacific typhoon which heads through the Bering Strait and its energy invigorates the formation of LP across the very north of Canada and NW Greenland which brings colder air across Greenland and triggers a drop in heights allowing ridging from the Azores to trend NE across western Europe. This is one aspect of how tropical weather systems influence weather patterns at higher latitudes. We see it with Atlantic hurricanes but I've long thought extratropical systems from the Pacific moving into cooler waters must also have an impact. I think this explains why we often get decent weather in September and early October because the tropical systems are at their strongest, the PV has not yet formed and the jet is often weak or prone to amplification.
  2. Morning all Not quite sure what others are seeing but 00Z ECM fairly uninspiring in the short term. That wouldn't be a pleasant summer's day but very welcome rain for the south and east. The question for next week is whether the LP will retreat far enough west to allow a brief Azores HP ridge to nose in from the SW. Well, yes. but ECM suggests it's only a transient feature with the Atlantic re-asserting into the following week. UKM this morning isn't pleasant for those wanting settled and fine conditions. GFS 00Z OP follows ECM at the end of next week: Eventually, as with ECM, the ridge collapses and the trough moves back in and it's a typical disappointing August. My summation, a much more unsettled and wet spell coming up over the next 3-4 days with some welcome rain for many, From the middle of next week, however, signs of a ridge from the SW leading to more settled conditions especially in the south but more widely by the weekend and a 4-5 day decent spell, nowhere near as hot as it has been but certainly pleasantly warm. Thereafter, clear signs for the ridge to collapse and a more unsettled spell moving fully into August with a much stronger Atlantic influence.
  3. Morning all Didn't sleep too badly - tepid shower before bed generally works. The flow remains SSE to NNW with bursts of thundery rain coming off the continent across London and heading into the east midlands. Incredibly, East Ham missed everything last evening - we had a storm to the west and one to the east and the later evening action was about 30-40 miles east of us over the estuary and into Essex and Suffolk. It looks as though we'll catch something from this morning with some heavy rain over SE London heading our way. Still warm and it'll take some days for the sturdy London brick to give up its heat but a sense the worst is over for now.
  4. Afternoon all To the east of London we're at 35c but as always a slight breeze from the Thames Estuary takes the top off the temperature and while a little cloud has amounted to nothing the breeze means we never reach the values recorded to the north and west of the city. Good luck to those tilting at records this afternoon - I do think today might be the hottest day of the year (or it might not). It will be the hottest day in July I think.
  5. Evening all As to the "then what" question, UKM and ECM producing very similar output out to T+144 tonight. Both show the pool of hot air moving into Scandinavia and inflating a significant anticyclone which then pushes the residual warm air west toward Greenland. The British isles are left under the trough so a very different week next week with plenty of rain but some hope as the LP retreats back west of a new push of heights from the SW. GFS 12Z OP goes down that route with the LP never really getting in and the ridge keeping the south not too bad - obviously a deal cooler than now but still in the warm category. Control follows the UKM/ECM route but Legacy holds HP in charge until early August when rising heights over Greenland send the trough over us and it's June 2019 Part 2.
  6. Evening all A hot or very hot ECM 12Z for the south and south east with 72 hours of 850s above 20c and the 24c line flirting with the south coast. The problem is of course we don't know how much cloud there will be and that will have a big impact as we saw last month. High 850s under cloudy skies with thunder mean sticky humidity but no heat records. The key, as we saw on 29/6, was to get the clear skies and sunshine from dawn to dusk. Other shave noted it's likely to be an outlier - doesn't mean it won't verify but it does mean, as we see with easterlies in midwinter, the rollercoaster ride will be open for business over the next few days.
  7. Morning all The ECM this morning was uninspiring with a day of heat before a much more unsettled end to next week. GFS 06Z Legacy has got one or two people hot under the collar and we'd be looking at a solid 48 hours of hot conditions across the south east with a rather shorter spell elsewhere and to be fair OP doesn't even manage that. As the HP transits east and tries to form a discrete cell to the east we do get a SSE flow but it's either quickly filled by the trough from the west so more cloud, storms and not as hot but very humid or the HP quickly moves off into Scandinavia and the trough takes over from the south (more of a classic plume). Plenty of time for more attempts from the Azores HP to ridge NE but that pattern will always keep the hot air to the south - as the ridge advances and recedes there's no opportunity for the hot air to move up.
  8. Morning all Some warmth in the output charts this morning but no real heat mercifully. 850s remain where you'd expect them to be and with HP building from the west the airflow keeps the heat pinned well to the south. GFS continues to show some uninspiring charts for mid month with LP moving closer as the Azores HP retreats south west. It's perfectly possible last Saturday might have been the warmest day of 2019.
  9. fter yesterday's stifling heat here in lowland East London, a much more agreeable day today. Looking ahead, generally settled though the GFS 12Z does offer a brief N'ly but mercifully none of those silly +20 850s on the horizon which should mean 25c and decent humidity levels which we can all enjoy. That will get us into mid July so one of the big heat periods will have been survived - the beginning of August is the other time when we can see some serious heat. The good news is for a change the Azores HP looks less of a force after this week so a more Atlantic-dominated outlook. Decent enough for southern and south western parts as you would expect - indeed, the whole chart series screams typical summer weather.
  10. Evening all Looks like it will be a much warmer if not hot week next week possibly lasting all week if the 12Z GFS is to be believed. For the south, though, increasingly thundery and for those who like that sort of thing it could be a memorable few days. No sign though this is anything more than a transient development and the medium to longer term continues to suggest a return to Atlantic conditions with heights to the NE and SW meaning the trough sits more or less through the British isles. Looking at next week's projected temperatures off the GFS 12z in all honesty nothing too remarkable - two or three days at or around 30c for London and the south east but perhaps the lack of established heat is going to hold the higher temperatures back coupled with cloud and storms.
  11. Afternoon all A lot of uncertainty in the medium to longer term, I'd argue, from the models this morning. The question is how do you keep the E'ly going? Basically, two approaches - one is to maintain northern blocking by keeping the HP over Scandinavia or hint at some form of retrogression. The second is to expand and develop the trough north toward the British Isles which maintains an E'ly flow even if heights are absent further north. I'm far from convinced a return to warmth is going to mean a return to settled conditions for all though I do think the north and north west (as they often do at this time of year) will do well. Further south and south west, the risk of thundery showers coming up from the south is present as well as more prolonged and heavy rain if the Atlantic LP tries to approach. As for the PV and the strat playing their part, the zonal winds are forecast to return to a more normal speed having been very high for late in the season and it may well be the speed of the wind drop is exacerbating blocking tendencies but if we get a wave 1 warming it would only re-strengthen the PV on the Canadian side and force a return of Atlantic conditions into May.
  12. The 06Z changes little - even the Parallel joins in with some serious retrogression. Had that LP to the west of Norway come SSE rather than SE it would have been perfect for some late April snow. The OP conversely ends pleasant as we get an increasingly SE flow off a warming continent while Control in low-res shifts the block far enough north to allow the trough to take over the British Isles so a changeable end after a settled spell.
  13. Morning all An interesting start to the week - having looked as though the E'ly might not last too long the main outputs are much more bullish this morning about a continuation into next week and perhaps beyond. It seems as though an intensifying Scandinavian HP will hold off the Atlantic LP which will then fragment ESE maintaining the E'ly flow. GFS 00Z OP is a thing of beauty in low-res with a Greenland HP setting up and a good old fashioned late winter cold blast incoming from the NNE - almost perfect, Parallel beings back a westerly flow while I note GEM also teases retrogression at T+240. ECM and UKM are fairly close at T+144 but UKM maintains a stronger Atlantic profile so it all looks very precarious for E'ly fans. ECM keeps a strong Scandinavian HP with a ridge through to Greenland but it's a warmer SE'ly over the UK by T+240 so much more pleasant. Taking the ECM and UKM evolutions, I'd have a look at the 00Z GFS Control and see if that's where ECM might be heading after T+240.
  14. Afternoon all I thought after the ECM 00Z we would like a general lifting of the threat of colder air for next week but the GFS 06Z OP and especially Control are superb output for cold weather fans not just in terms of severity but longevity with sub zero 850s lasting several days so cool, if not cold conditions and plenty of prospect for wintry convective activity. Looking through the 06Z ENS, some agreement for maintaining an E'ly sourced air flow right out to T+240 with only a couple of members trying to being back the Atlantic. Not all the runs are cold with some bringing in warmer 850s but that's a detail to be resolved. After T+240 much more scatter as you'd expect so we'll see but certainly a strong possibility after a slightly milder weekend of an increasingly chilly regime during next week.
  15. Yes this isn't January and we can all go on about we wish it was but it's not. However, for model watchers the synoptics are unusual though not unprecedented and temperatures well below normal (while not to everyone's taste) are as noteworthy as temperatures well above (which a lot of people enjoy a lot more). Oddly enough, it may be the strength of the chill next week which undermines the E'ly in terms of longevity. As the HP squeezes down from the north and forces the airflow to a colder NE'ly it causes the mid Atlantic LP to stall and that in turn raises heights further east turning the flow to a much warmer SE'ly direction. Watch the GEM evolution for an example of that. To keep the E'ly going you need to keep the Atlantic LP flowing ESE into Europe.
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