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About stodge

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    Mr Stodge

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    East Ham, London

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  1. Fairly predictable early autumn fare as others have said but broad signals for a rise in pressure into November with the HP ridging through the British Isles so a period of settled conditions lasting 7-10 days looks likely in the early part of next month.
  2. The key player seems to be Hurricane Epsilon which is an intense beast which may cause Bermuda some problems but mercifully is nowhere near any other land. It keeps a fair strength as it transitions to an extra-tropical feature and is absorbed into and causes severe deepening in a run-of-the-mill North Atlantic LP. This tropically-enhanced storm becomes a significant feature introducing plenty of energy and throwing the HP forward into Europe. The central pressure seems to be around 950MB (ECM, GEM) or 945 MB (GFS OP) but that strength of storm generates secondary features which can
  3. Not quite sure what to make of the evening output. A lot seems to depend on an ex-hurricane finally allowing the Azores HP to ridge into Europe and re-aligning the trough positively toward month end and off goes the Atlantic express powered, as is often the case at this time of year, by energy from ex-tropical features.
  4. The temperature profiles "suggest" a strong block over western Russia feeding S'ly winds through eastern Europe into Scandinavia leaving north-west Europe on the cold side of the trough so more N'ly or NE'ly winds and that explains the increased probability of colder and wetter (snowier on the highest ground) outbreaks. I have to say I've seen more unsettled GFS 12Z runs but not that many - a dismal rest of the month with a lot more rain and only the briefest of drier interludes. GEM plays a different set of cards as it did last night with the HP bloc moving further north into the fa
  5. Have to say the ECM evolution from T+216 to T+240 stretches credibility for me a wee bit. 12Z GFS OP and Control restore a much more traditional autumn pattern in far FI - the first cold plunge down the east coast of North America fires up a very deep LP and the jet and off we jolly well go...
  6. Evening all 🙂 It seems certainty has gone out for the evening and left confusion in charge. Relative unanimity among the models yesterday evening has been replaced by disagreement. GEM has completely abandoned the LP to the SW and the warm S'ly scenario: What happens is the main LP moves too far SW - past the Azores - and the link to the northern LP breaks and the latter slips down across the British Isles. ECM at the same time still on-board with the warm S'ly albeit, as we saw yesterday, the infusion of sub-tropical air from the south invigorates and deep
  7. And the price for that infusion of sub-tropical air:
  8. Early indications of a more settled spell by the middle of the month but with the trough over Europe, HP doesn't set up in a place to bring warmth. Whether it's to the North or North-West, it looks as though the SE will be plagued by a chilly breeze and it could be a traditional autumn HP of fine sunny days and foggy, frosty nights.
  9. Evening all 🙂 Perhaps just a hint of the pattern easing in FI this evening but no clarity on the possible way forward. GFS 12Z OP builds HP to the north whereas ECM builds the HP through the British Isles. GEM also settles things down from the west.
  10. Afternoon all 🙂 The quieter period in the hurricane season isn't going to do us any favours in the near term. We rely on the infusion of energy from these ex-tropical features to shake the pattern and to (ideally) build the Azores HP over the British Isles. GFS FI charts (and outliers) notwithstanding, the pattern of strong heights over Eurasia wouldn't be a problem in and of itself but the orientation of the block toward Scandinavia and the Arctic forces the LP trough SE over NW Europe and the British Isles and keeps the Azores HP as an irrelevance to the far SW. The 06Z
  11. Yes, no real change in the overall pattern with the heights actually moving NW into the Arctic so we see the trough being squeezed fractionally to the SW - not a great help for the British Isles to be honest.
  12. Yes, the block is too far east to offer the possibility of the trough sitting out to the west of the British isles and allowing for a S'ly flow though GEM OP this evening keeps the HP a little closer to Scandinavia and is certainly the direction of travel you'd want to see if you fancy some autumnal warmth. Otherwise, it looks distinctly unsettled and often quite wet. GFS OP and Control in far FI try to re-set the pattern by having the LP dive south east through the British Isles allowing the Azores HP to build in between but that's too far off to be anything more than wishful thinking fo
  13. 12Z ECM at T+240 following the trend: The block over NW Russia forces the trough SE through NW Europe and down toward the Med. LP developing over Greenland and Iceland slide SE - unfortunately, the block is too far east for us to get a warmer S'ly flow which is what often happens in the European autumn as the LP digs south to the west of the British Isles. This year, the synoptics at least for late September/early October aren't so promising. If the block can build slightly more to the west and we advect a S'ly flow it's perfectly possible to see 25C in October but not from
  14. Evening all 🙂 12Z ECM still rolling out - 12Z GFS OP not much to look at if you are after more settled weather. The strength and persistence of heights over NW Russia leaves NW Europe in a difficult position as it becomes the home of the trough and negative alignment becomes the name of the game as successive LP come down SE from Iceland/Greenland. 12Z GFS Control is a little better as the LP are able to pull away NE and the alignment is positive so heights rise to the south keeping the air flow mainly TM. 12Z GEM isn't too far from GFS OP but the HP is over Scandinavia rather t
  15. Unfortunately, there's not much sign of anything settled in the FI period on the ECM 12Z. The exact timing and trajectory of the ex-Hurricane Teddy remains pivotal. The current path has it making a brief landfall in Nova Scotia before curving back NE but it's not clear if it will move to the west of Greenland which would cause heights to rise over eastern Greenland and bring the trough down over western Europe or whether it would phase into LP moving over southern Greenland thus giving the jet a brief kick. I've put up the T+240 Northern Hemispohere chart to show the large HP over N
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