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stodge

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About stodge

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    Mr Stodge

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  1. Evening all I've long been of the view mid-February and later are when the synoptic charts will become more interesting so no surprise that isn't reflected within the current reliable or even semi-reliable. I'm watching strat developments with the thought late February could be interesting but it's all speculation. In the immediate an unsettled and chillier week last week gives way to a more anticyclonic spell into February as the trough digs down to the Azores and throws the HP ridge in front of it over western Europe from Iberia to the southern British Isles. The 240s from the 12Z output across the models all tell a very similar tale. The interest from the extended GFS OP is the LP sets up down near the Azores which pushes the anticyclonic cell up over the British Isles - the 850s are nothing unusual but I do wonder if we could see a fair amount of fog and frost IF we get a clearer circulation. Control ends on quite a tantalising note with a much quieter Atlantic and perhaps a ridge stretching south from a large HP in the high Arctic.
  2. Afternoon all As we await the all-important ECM 12Z run, I'm left with the impression the mostly benign start to February is being replaced by a more mobile and unsettled Atlantic profile. The 12Z OP 10 HPA strat chart continues to intrigue in FI but we'll see if that takes us anywhere in terms of a sting in the tail wintry spell for late February or early March.
  3. Yes, next week;s 24-48 hour chillier NW'ly spell still present across the models and of course plenty of detail to firm up in the coming days. It does seem as though the HP-dominated benign spell will return for the start of February and the early part of the month looks between the more unsettled and active Atlantic and the HP regime to the south and south east so mild air for us all for most of the time. The signal for a break in that pattern towards the end of February remains and I suspect March in particular will be very different to this month and next month.
  4. Evening all Obviously, it's been a very disappointing winter for most on here though today was glorious in the south if you like your winter days crisp and bright. Whether it was the strength of the IOD or some other factors a mild winter was called by most LRFs way back so we can't really be surprised. I'm cautiously optimistic March will be a wintry month this year and possibly April too and even in London snow can fall and settle in late March and early April. Given all snow in the UK is transient (apart from the odd Scottish crag), I'll take a couple of transient spring snowfalls. As an aside, I assume the Tropospheric Polar Vortex has existed for millennia - I also presume it has tended to the same locations or have there been periods in history when it was further west or stronger over Siberia?
  5. I live in lowland East London. I've had snow fall and settle in March and even late March. I know everyone wants feet of snow lasting for weeks but this is the UK not Northern Scandinavia or Canada. If snow in March doesn't float your boat, fine, but the chance of snow falling and settling is still there.
  6. Morning all Very downbeat in here this morning - not sure why. I'm still of the view we will have a very late winter and indeed March may turn out more interesting from a winter perspective than February. The big change for me overnight in the models is whereas yesterday most were showing the HP relaxing SW into the Atlantic, GFS and ECM are now showing the HP easing away south or south east with pressure falling over the Atlantic especially the Azores. The European HP isn't well positioned for us for cold in the short term but GFS 00z OP tried to shift it back towards the British Isles. The 00Z Control FI wasn't too bad either
  7. Evening all Well, the 12Z ECM OP has awakened some interest on here and no surprise. The way it handles the weekend HP is very different from GFS 12Z OP which builds a strong HP but then has it retreat fairly quickly SW before moving ESE into Europe and keeping the UK in a mild flow. With ECM the HP hangs on and then splits at T+192 with part going SE into Europe and part SW into the Atlantic. Neither remaining cell is strong enough to resist the trough sinking south into the UK with the colder air following. Worth noting UKMO has a much more intense LP over the south of Iberia than ECM or GFS.
  8. Afternoon all Midway through the winter cycle today (my birthday) and, as has been the case for most of my years on this Earth, wet and windy rather than cold and snowy is the outcome. Looking forward, an impressive build of HP from Sunday from the Azores but, slightly surprisingly, it only lasts 3-4 days before declining back SW and allowing a more mobile and unsettled pattern to return. Yes, we may see some frosts and perhaps some fog which will be a shade of winter albeit not what many on here want to see. The problem with the 06Z OP FI is the HP then heads back into Europe and we're back in a mild SW'ly pattern. A number of the GEFS Members handle that evolution differently with some taking the HP further west and allowing a quite potent N'ly to develop (coinciding with the MJO move into 7-8 I would think). Other drop the HP south or SE. If you want some real eye candy, the current CFS monthly run for mid-February would please many. How might we get there? Interestingly, the repeated builds of HP do have a cumulative effect in terms of amplifying and slowing the Atlantic - I also note signs of a new warming on the GFS OP for later in the month which might, with all the caveats at my command and given the lag time, suggest mid-February onward (as others have suggested in their LRFs) will be the start of a wintry phase. Of course, so much can and probably will go wrong.
  9. It would also depend on whether a) the Siberian lobe was stronger than the Canadian and whether b) the Canadian lobe set up far enough west to encourage ridging into Scandinavia.
  10. Afternoon all The 06Z OP tantalises with a small level warming from the North American side which weakens the TPV, sends a lobe over to Siberia and that in turn encourages height rises to the NE. It might be our way out of the current mild and benign rut but we need a lot to drop right and for some consistency as we approach mid month. I'm fractionally less pessimistic than I was yesterday.
  11. I agree there's nothing much for the actual winter period on offer - the best we can hope for is a well-positioned MLB which could advect some colder air into southern areas. I do think March and April will be much more interesting and exciting - I think from mid-March onwards we could be looking at some really interesting synoptics as the PV starts to break down.
  12. So the question then becomes when and how this intense TPV gets shifted or distorted? I suspect even an SSW won't achieve a full split now so we're looking beyond the confines of winter to March and April. I suspect the annual battle between colder and warmer air masses will be more interesting in 2020.
  13. Evening all Just back from two and a half weeks (including Christmas) on Tenerife in the Canary Islands. You might think the weather in the Canary Islands is pretty uninteresting but you'd be wrong - there's a lot going on and it's not always straightforward. The principal influence for the Islands is the Sub-Tropical HP (we call it "The Azores HP") which is normally, and not surprisingly, near the Azores. To the SE of the HP cell and especially if the HP is ridging toward the British Isles, there is a fetch of NE winds (known as the "trades"). These bring cool maritime air across the islands and prevent them being as hot as you might expect given their latitude (28 degrees North). It's not always that straight forward of course - when we arrived on Thursday December 12th and for several days after, the jet tracking well to the south of the British Isles and the suppression of the Azores HP further south-west left the islands vulnerable to a NW flow and occasional showers especially for the north facing coasts. The winds were often quite gusty though nothing like the storm force gusts over Galicia and Asturias in the week leading up to Christmas. Despite the cooler breeze, daytime maxima were still 21-23C with largely clear skies with occasional cloud coming over the mountains from the north of the island. Another way the status quo can be disrupted is if the Azores HP transfers into southern Europe. This occurred just before Christmas and introduced a feed of E'ly winds from Africa. This was a clear flow on Christmas Eve allowing temperatures to hit 29c but much cloudier (more like a dust haze) on Christmas Day though still warm. It didn't happen on this visit but if the Azores HP displaces far enough east or NE, pressure can fall over the Islands either with an LP forming near the Azores (possibly as the Atlantic trough digs south and creates a cut-off feature) or an equatorial LP moving up the African coast. Both can bring rain or showers and much cooler temperatures to the Canaries. It's a wonderful winter location for northern Europeans but 29c on Christmas Eve just didn't seem right.
  14. Evening all A bit early for me to get interested in the winter modelling but it looks an increasingly disturbed outlook through mid month with the jet close to or just to the south of the British isles and a strong flow out of North America. The main LP centres won't be the problem but embedded secondary features which would enhance rain/showers/wind as they zip from west to east across southern areas. In terms of accumulations, the usual suspects to the north and north west catching the bulk of the rain as you'd expect with the south and east not faring too badly. The question then becomes how we break out of the pattern - not immediately would be my thought. The signal for height rises to the east remains in a number of the GEFS members and the scenario of a "battleground" isn't wholly far-fetched but whether it would be SE'ly winds and slider LPs or a more conventional S'ly flow with deep LP moving NNE to the west of Ireland remains to be seen.
  15. Evening all I try to learn without bothering the experts but this one is puzzling me - the "warming" being shown at the 10 HPA level on the GFS/FV3 charts I understand but it seems within the belt of warmer stratospheric temperatures is an increase in wind speed. First, the wind speed chart: The contrasting temperature chart: It looks to me as though the warming strat relates in some way to a corresponding wind speed increase so as the block displaces it strengthens. Therefore a warming from the Eurasian side leads to the block re-forming on the Canadian side but with a stronger if smaller core. This temperature chart is from the Control at the same time and is, I think, much more interesting: Not suggesting any of this will verify but the Control almost splits the warming and leaves the PV much weaker than the OP run.
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