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About stodge

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    Mr Stodge

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  1. Afternoon all After the interest of the next 48-72 hours it looks increasingly as though we will be entering a milder Atlantic dominated phase lasting 10-14 days. With pressure high to the south quantities of rain for southern areas look low after the weekend . Doubtless many will be disheartened, downbeat and dejected. Perhaps but I'd point out we're barely half way through winter and there's the small matter of February to come. I'd also point out the route to very cold often starts from very mild so a spell of milder weather may not be the curse it seems. I'd also mention that March is perfectly capable of delivering snow even for lowland areas.
  2. Afternoon all Some early comment on the 12Z suite. ICON shows a milder spell for the south into next week with 2m temperatures rising into the teens from Monday until a sharp cool down on Thursday. More of a blink and you'll miss it affair further north. Looks like the 06Z GFS Control to be honest. GFS OP much the same - a new storm forming to the south of Greenland tomorrow and Saturday meanders toward Iceland before heading east early in the week and deepening. Looks as though it will pass well to the north of the British Isles - over the Faeroes perhaps - while the Azores HP moves in to Southern France bringing a spell of mild SW'ly winds (in truth not really had a blowtorch spell this winter so far). GEM develops a large European HP area into early next week with the Atlantic LP much weaker than GFS and displaced further west so once again mild or very mild across southern areas through next Tuesday. GFS 12Z OP Northern Hemisphere Profile for T+144: UKMO 12Z NH Profile at the same time:
  3. Just to review the precipitation numbers over the next week: The NW facing coasts and hills are set to take a pounding with some worrying rainfall (snowfall) numbers yet much less further east and south.
  4. Afternoon all An interesting week coming it would seem with fresh to strong WNW'ly winds and frequent showers, no doubt primarily of rain for the south and lower ground but the possibility of snow to lower levels in the north and to altitude almost anywhere with the "fun and games" of a vigorous secondary LP crossing the south on Wednesday/Thursday bringing a potentially disruptive spell of rain and strong winds. By the end of the week the trough is moving out to the east and south east and a northerly brings in some very cold air with the likelihood of a couple of frigid nights and especially where any snow has remained. Where do we go from there ? ECM 12Z OP at T+240: If you want a definition of a messy chart, there you go. The Atlantic looks weak, the Azores HP is suppressed well to the south but there's little evidence of northern blocking either. GEM 00Z OP at T+240: The Atlantic wins through albeit without much power. The differences in NH profile with ECM are considerable so no surprise it's a different evolution. GFS 06Z OP at T+240: The Atlantic in charge to a degree but still some hint of a negative tilt to the trough so you'd think the LP would head SE rather than NE. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: Takes this to another extent as the LP deepens sharply and slides SE into France but the HP builds back strongly behind it. Picking the bones out of the METO 30-day summary there's an argument for an MLB to set up near the British isles and then sinking south allowing milder Atlantic air to return into February. The GEFS show the Azores HP becoming more influential with time but its orientation and position still very much up for grabs. It COULD ridge in strongly toward the UK sending the jet back north but it could inflate in the mid Atlantic keeping the N'ly or NW/'ly flow going. Nowhere near resolved yet.
  5. The question from that becomes what any rise in pressure would look like and where any resulting HP would sit and be oriented. The 12Z GEFS out in far FI are a mixed bunch as you would expect but I would value a pretty large cluster try to raise pressure across the British Isles. Some have quoted the EC46 as a source for the Azores building in argument but the Control for instance builds pressure from the NE while another option might be to see pressure build from both north and south with an MLB set up close to or over the British Isles. I have no idea and the models are playing with all kinds of solutions at this point. Just had a look at the GEM Ensembles however and a strong cluster sending the Azores HP NE toward the south west approaches with the blow torch hot (as it were) on its heels.
  6. Evening all Not expecting any lying snow in lowland East London but will I see any falling snow ? Perhaps but I do think I will see plenty of rain and perhaps some hail and sleet as next week goes on. Overall precipitation quantities of interest: A lot of rain (and presumably snow) to western and north western areas but much less further east. Where do we go from there ? ECM 12Z OP at T+240: GFS 12Z OP at T+240: GEM 12Z OP at T+240: To be honest, all these and the GEFS at the same time tell me there are no strong signals as yet for the evolution into the last third of January. The GFS 00Z and 12Z Control both offered something of interest but until the exit of the trough next week has been sorted out it's going to be hard to have any confidence in the evolution beyond that point.
  7. Indeed, the charts for January 15th have been consistent for days in general terms: GFS 12Z OP on January 5th for T+240: Tonight: GEM at the same time: Tonight: Yes. some subtle changes in detail as expected but the general thrust for the British Isles remarkably accurate at longish range.
  8. Moving on from my birthday, how are we looking further down the line ? GFS 12 Z OP at T+240: A cold or very cold day with temperatures close to freezing over higher ground and in the north. Further wintry weather likely though fading as the main LP moves away over Europe. A sharp frost from a transient ridge before the next LP approaches. ECM 12Z at T+240: More progressive than GFS. The ridge has arrived and it's a fine cold day for all but winds already backing SW over Ireland. Worth comparing the NH profiles - the GFS has a very strong HP over NW Russia and the obvious question is whether this can build toward the Pole. GEM 12Z OP at T+240: An interesting blend. Yes, we have the transient ridge but a nose of LP heading in - will it go SE into France or across the British Isles. There's warmer air wrapped in it which looks to move up against some colder air still over the British Isles. Very interesting to see what happens one the LP and trough drop into Europe at the end of the next week and certainly very far from any resolution.
  9. Evening all Birthday watch for tonight - down to T+96 so you'd expect broad agreement: UKMO: ECM: GFS OP: GEM: NAVGEM: JMA: Still some nuances to be resolved - the NW of earlier days has become a WNW or even a W'ly with consequently warmer uppers. The Azores HP is perhaps closer and more influential and the delayed collapse of the Scandinavian HP into Europe has perhaps left less option for a SE'ly move of the LP than was the case a few days ago.
  10. Today's update from METO: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-10 Fairly ambiguous in the extended forecast. Suspect there's no clear signal for anything as yet later in the month.
  11. Afternoon all It's all gone quiet... The 06Z GEFS are an interesting bunch: The majority (I would contend) weaken or lift the PV out of Canada completely by T+288. Here's Control (which oddly enough retains a chunk of PV in its usual habitat): So it begins - first hints in the ENS followed by appearances in the OP and some stellar output at T+168 and T+144 only for the whole thing to be watered down from then. Maybe, maybe not.
  12. Morning all Birthday watch got delayed last night which may have been no bad thing. We're well into high-res for next Monday's chart so you'd think the models would be firming up in agreement: So let's see: GFS 06Z OP for T+126: Control at the same time: GEM 00Z OP at T+132: NAVGEM 06Z at T+126: Finally, ICON 00Z at T+126: ICON stands out as a slight exception (though ECM isn't far removed from it) otherwise we're pretty much in agreement. A vigorous extremely powerful LP storm develops the day before off the south east coast of Greenland as a lobe of PV energy is ejected SE and this deepens sharply to 935-945MB before starting to move ESE for most - at present, most models are taking the storm as a weakening feature ESE into Europe though there are a number of complex iterations within that. The resilient HP block over Scandinavia has "slowed down" this development - the models from five days ago were showing the LP across the British Isles on the 15th but that has been put back 2-3 days because, I would argue, the block has intervened. What it does show for model forecasting purposes, is that, irrespective of whether the block directly impacts the UK weather, it has considerable upstream implications if it proves to be more resilient. Here's a thought - the California storm modelled on the GFS 00Z OP at T+54 (so Saturday's output): The same storm four days earlier (00Z OP output for 3/1/18 at T+150) Still out in the Pacific - I don't know but has the behaviour of the block and the weakness of the Atlantic over here had ramifications in terms of the progress of the Pacific storm systems or is there no causal relationship at all ?
  13. Evening all That time of day again - yes, birthday watch and we're down to T+168: Tonight's charts from the respective 12Z OPs: ECM: GEM: GFS: JMA: NAVGEM: Broad agreement on the generalities but disagreement on the specifics. The movement NW to SE of the trough looks settled but the core of LP remains to be resolved - it moves in to be just west of the British isles by next Monday before moving in and over us for early in the week. Rain or showers for all would be the forecast to this observer but perhaps not too windy.
  14. Evening all Yes, it's Birthday Watch time as I count down the charts to my big day on January 15th. Starting with ECM - taking the 12Z OP charts for (respectively), T+240 on the 5th, T+216 yesterday and T+192 today: While not as vigorous as the T+240 chart, tonight's chart looks quite similar and has the main LP diving SE across northern England so a pretty unsettled day with rain or showers and perhaps something more wintry for the far NE of Scotland and the Northern Isles. GFS - some rules apply: A gradual shift north in the past two days. At T+240 the core of the LP was south of Iceland, now it is just west but a fraction deeper. Showers and a chilly PM flow look on the cards. GEM: As with the GFS less sense of the core of LP diving SE but still fairly chilly PM air over the British Isles for my birthday. Both GFS and ECM much less keen on northern and north-eastern heights than ECM at this stage. I'll add some more output in the next post.
  15. Evening all It's my new favourite time of the day (though probably not anyone else's). Birthday watch - charts for January 15th taken from the main 12Z OP runs now at T+216: ECM: - today's 216 and yesterday's T+240: GFS - today's 216 and yesterday's 240: GEM: - same again Fascinating to see the story develop - ECM and noticeably GFS "slower" to bring the large LP down through the British Isles but GEM a little different with orientation. I'd also note the height profiles to the north - ECM looks the cleanest today with as usual GFS hinting at conveying more energy to the north east. Let's see where we are tomorrow.