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About stodge

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  1. Morning all First, kudos to those who called the heat correctly. I didn't think it would get past 25c in London let alone to near 29c and for all this we can think the SSW and the Beast from the East. A moment - northern blocking and, more importantly, the trough to the south of the British Isles or over Europe meant warm air funnelled from Africa up over Eastern Europe so the Balkans got an early spring with 22c in Belgrade as early as March 12th. When the set up returned over Easter another warm plume moved up over south eastern and eastern Europe (24c in Belgrade on March 30th). That meant when the synoptics enabled sir to be sourced from the SE said air was unusually warm and with the minimum fetch over the cool North Sea and aided by the strengthening sunshine, we got the record temperatures we have seen. Without the modification of the Atlantic, more continental-type climactic events are possible and in many of these the transition from winter to spring can, in temperature terms, be rapid. Look at what happens in North America and Siberia as winter eases - huge contrasts in temperature can be experienced even on a daily basis. Worth thinking about IF the Atlantic becomes less influential in our weather and climate. Back then to the models and some thoughts on where we will be at the end of the month based on the morning output so it's Monday April 30th and starting with ECM 00Z at T+240: Back to a more normal pattern from next week with our weather coming off the Atlantic. LP to the NW and HP to the SW and by T+240 a broad ridge from the (slightly displaced) Azores HP hints at decent conditions for most while LP is gathering to the west of Iceland and may become more influential as May starts. GEM 00Z at the same time: A more unsettled evolution. GEM re-orients the Azores HP more to the west and north and that allows the trough to drop SE over the British isles so we end up in a very unsettled pattern with slow-moving LP bringing plenty of rain or showers. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Once again GFS teases with an E'ly but it wouldn't take much for the GEM evolution to reach a similar point or even the ECM evolution. GFS has LP to the south west and heights build to the NW from the Azores using the "up and over" approach with the ridge inclining toward Scandinavia. A warm pattern given the air source with showers or perhaps storms for the south but fine further north. Further into FI the easterly pattern continues for southern and eastern parts but then shifts to a NE'ly and introduces a brief much colder air flow. GFS 00Z Control at the same time: A chilly northerly as the trough edges east and heights try to build in from the west. A more progressive version of the GEM evolution in my view. Further into FI, however, things turn much drier and warmer as a large HP builds over Scandinavia and ridges back SW across southern parts. The GEFS for 00Z at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 A really mixed bag. Fans of heat can go straight to P10 which would rival if not surpass the current warm spell while fans of cold can go to P11 for their daily fix and while there doesn't appear to be a lot of spread the truth is for our tiny island slight changes in position and orientation of large weather systems can have huge impacts. The only trend I see is no trend. Mean puts LP close by and that's well supported and you can't go far wrong with that as a forecast but I'm struggling to see a clear message even at this range. In summary, the fine spell is a memory by Monday and next week looks to be more "normal" with a westerly pattern off the Atlantic. From there, the evolutions are varied - both GEM and GFS push LP close to the British Isles, the former has it over us and the latter to the south pulling in a prolonged spell of easterly winds. ECM keeps heights closer but you wonder if the trough at T+240 might not swing SE from its position west of Iceland.
  2. Afternoon all I'm not a fan of summer in all honesty but I don't begrudge people a little bit of warmth now and then and especially after such a long winter and slow spring. The turn round has been remarkable and it looks as though tomorrow will be the height of the warm snap. Looking further ahead, clear signs of a return to something more normal next week. GEM has a very contrasting view to next Wednesday from today: ECM at a similar place: GFS 06Z OP as well: Further into FI 06Z OP pulls out something nice for early May: Once the cool NW'ly goes by next week things get much more uncertain. Perhaps a hint of LP close to or just to the south of the British Isles but far too early to be clear.
  3. Morning all While some quibble over whether it'll be 22, 23, 25 or 27c on Thursday (and for those of us stuck in an office and unable to take part in the seemingly obligatory BBQ it's immaterial) the weather moves on its merry way oblivious to our wants, needs, hopes and desires. Yesterday the post-heat breakdown was looking quite messy but let's see if anything approaching clarity has arrived as I look at the output for Friday April 27th and start with the 00Z ECM at T+240: To be fair, ECM keeps the fine spell going through the weekend and into next week by a new push of heights to the north and then the east of the British isles but the break down is only postponed and by T+240 a fresh W'ly regime is in place with LP to the north and HP to the south west so always drier and warmer to the south with rain or showers further north. GEM 00Z at the same time: GEM breaks down the fine spell much more quickly than ECM (it's gone by Monday on the former) and from then on it's a WNW'ly with broad if reasonably shallow areas of LP on a slight negative tilt moving from the area south of Iceland crossing Scotland and into Europe. HP is suppressed to the south so it's a cool and changeable outlook with periods of rain or showers for many but the rain always lighter to the south. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Slightly different but the overall evolution is similar to GEM. The fine spell is replaced over the weekend by a cooler W'ly form and there's a NW'ly by T+240 as the trough migrates to Scandinavia pulling in cooler air. Signs perhaps of a pressure rise in mid Atlantic behind and while it doesn't happen at once the Greenland HP re-asserts and the trough sinks close to the British Isles further into FI. The resulting air flow is sourced from Scandinavia so won't be warm. GFS Control at the same time: Very unsettled with rain or showers for most. Further into FI, a ridge builds north from the Azores and across northern Britain into Scandinavia bringing a return of some warmer air. The 00Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 The 850s tell a clear tail with most having negative values across the British Isles by this time. The OP representative of the suite in my view with the majority suggesting a cool NW'ly flow - one or two go further and have a N'ly. Only a couple of members keep a warmer S'ly component by this time so it looks all over for the fine spell by this time. Further into FI and easterlies are appearing as is the Greenland HP but that's by no means a done deal by this time. We often see a colder interlude in late April or early May and this year looks set to be no exception. In summary, some fine warm and sunny days in the near future but the breakdown is clear and into next week it looks like a deteriorating situation with more changeable and cooler conditions encroaching from the north and west. From there, it's still unclear but the end of April and beginning of May are often colder and more unsettled and this may again be the case with the possibility of the Greenland HP building down and introducing something more N'ly in nature. As ever, more runs are needed.
  4. Morning all A new week but very different weather coming for large parts of the British Isles as a large LP stalls in mid-Atlantic and a plume of much warmer air moves from the SW leading to the formation of HP to the east and the importing of even warmer SE'ly air midweek. Some are claiming we could exceed 25c by Thursday - I'm sceptical - but certainly a spell of temperatures more akin to June than April seems on the cards with London experiencing several days with day time maxima above 20c. Will it last ? The medium term analysis this morning takes us to Thursday April 26th and starts as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: After the initial HP has declined, a ridge builds in from the Azores to promise a continuation of fine weather through the weekend but early next week the writing looks on the wall as LP moves down from the north and by T+240 the trough extends from Scandinavia through the far north of the British Isles with a cooler WNW'ly airflow in place. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: Slightly more complex. GEM hurries the breakdown and the NW'ly is in place by next Monday. However, weak heights remain to the south but with slack troughs too in quite a messy synoptic evolution. By T+240 basically settled and especially so for central areas. Perhaps an increasing risk of showers for south-western areas and the far north west under an Atlantic influence with a threat of rain or drizzle. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Recognisably close to ECM though does have the messier evolution to the south of GEM. Cooler than in the coming week with a noticeable WNW'ly airflow and rain or showers especially for northern areas. The south perhaps hanging on to some better weather but nowhere near as warm as it will be in the coming week. Further into FI it all looks very average with attempted ridging from the Azores flattened by Atlantic LP systems and continued weakness to the south, especially over Iberia, as we often see as summer approaches, threatening more disturbed weather for southern parts. GFS 00Z Control at the same time: Not too different to the OP in all honesty. Further into FI very average with a W'ly flow. The 00Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 OP and Control following the Mean which you always like to see for verification and a strong cluster supporting that evolution. Just one Member keeping HP to the east but a few also interested in building Greenland heights once again though I would be sceptical. Further into FI no clear signal to end the month and start May. As you've all been well behaved, here's a treat with the 06Z OP at T+234: Make of that what you will. However, FI gets much more interesting with the trough to the SW deepening into a serious LP area and with heights building to the north and NW we get an E'ly !! Rain (and possibly plenty of it) for southern and south western parts but fine for the north but cool with a hint of NE in the air flow. In summary, a fine summer like spell of weather starts tomorrow or Wednesday (depends on your definition of summer I suppose) and the south should squeeze five or six decent days out of it, perhaps less so for northern areas. By early next week, all the models are indicating a breakdown to a more traditional Atlantic-dominated pattern but not because of a raging Atlantic by any means. Slack areas of LP and weak areas of HP proliferate and it's all quite messy for the last week of the month but temperatures will return to where they should be for most. No signs in far FI of anything too hot, too cold, too wet or too dry to be honest and for those following the old weather maxim of April going out "like a lamb" you may well be right.
  5. Afternoon all Plenty of people salivating at the prospect of some warm, sunny weather which is understandable after a long winter and one of the slowest starts to spring I can remember. From some of the talk, it seems however we will miss spring and go straight to summer. Not much sign of spring, it has to be said, in my part of the world this week. Never mind, let's see where we may be on St George's Day, Monday April 23rd and let's kick off with what seems to be everybody's favourite model at the moment for some reason, the ECM, the 00Z at T+240: Not hard to see why this should be so popular. ECM has been the most bullish about a short-lived warm spell for some day and is now bringing back renewed HP from the SW so fine and dry weather for most though perhaps not quite as warm as it's due to be next midweek with the air coming off the Atlantic but nonetheless very pleasant. The far NW still at risk from Atlantic systems and some drizzle perhaps and note the LP over North Africa helping to prop up the new HP push. GEM 00Z at T+240: A rather different evolution. By this time next midweek's HP has declined to the SE but while there's a weak LP over Biscay winds are light over the British Isles in a col. There's a weak ridge pushing north and a sense that heights could well be developing to the north of the British Isles with the Atlantic moribund but we'll see. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Closer to ECM than GEM but with a different evolution again. Heights to the east eventually break down as a deep LP comes in to northern Scandinavia. This enables a height rise over the British Isles but the trough is still over Iberia so the HP is inflated to the north. Further into FI, Atlantic LP comes back into control and the run ends quite unsettled and much cooler with a NW'ly flow. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: More like the morning's ECM with a renewed push of HP from the Azores. Further into FI and the pattern of heights to the north and the trough to the south re-asserts so a messy evolution with occasional E'ly interludes but always more unsettled to the south. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: Something very different. Heights to the NW, a large tough over Scandinavia and a slack N'ly driving out the warmer air and returning colder conditions for all. Further into FI and a NE'ly interlude before a new LP develops near Iceland and disrupts SE over the British Isles. The 06Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 In my view, the Control solution has far more support than the OP and indeed fans of warmth should look at P19 if they want to choke on their lunch. Others raise heights to the NE and offer a NE'ly flow while the OP's desire to remove heights to the south of the British Isles isn't widely supported in the ENS at this time. The path beyond is much less certain but northern blocking is well represented as well as the tough sitting over the British Isles with warm, settled conditions in the minority. To conclude, a fine and warm snap lasting 2-3 days next week looks certain but the breakdown of the HP to the east and what follows is far from clear. Fans of warmth will draw heart from ECM and the GFS 06Z OP while GEM and GFS 00Z both pointed to an alternative which kept LP to the south and seemed to suggest new heights to the north. The GFS 06Z Control has thrown a spanner in the works with an evolution which is not without support in the ENS and raises heights to the NW. An intriguing evolution beyond the warmth of next week and as we often see at this time of year, with a generally moribund Atlantic, the position and orientation of HP becomes of more significance.
  6. Morning all Continued excitement at the prospect of two or three days of very warm weather next week and certainly 21-22c next Thursday will be much higher than the 12c currently on offer. Let's see where the end of next week finds us so today the medium term takes us to Sunday April 22nd. Starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: The orientation of heights changes from the east to the SW of the British Isles but it remains fine for many albeit probably a shade cooler with air sourced off the Atlantic. It's likely northern and western areas will turn more unsettled as the LP approaches. GEM 00Z at T+240: The principal difference between GEM and ECM is ECM removes the trough to the south of the British Isles while GEM keeps it. The presence of the trough means heights are pushed further north so there is a light residual E'ly across southern areas while northern and north western parts keep fine conditions with little or no Atlantic influence. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: GFS breaks down the warm spell slightly more slowly but slightly more completely with LP spreading up from the SW to cover the British Isles bringing in rain or showers for many by this time. No sign of an Azores ridge at this time but a strong ridge holds around Greenland and this dominates the weather into FI as the trough drops into Scandinavia and across the British Isles bringing much colder and more unsettled conditions for all. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: A cooler NE'ly flow as HP has retrogressed toward Greenland but still fine for most. Further into FI heights remain to the North or North West and in time the wind becomes more N'ly introducing much cooler air. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: HP to the NW and keeping things settled for most. Heights remain close to or to the NW of the British isles further into FI but with signs of a more N'ly incursion later. The 06Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Broadly anticyclonic though the position and orientation of the HP far from resolved though the majority keeping the centre to the north of the British Isles. Further into FI a signal for the heights to move more to the NW and the trough to drop into Scandinavia so much cooler conditions with a N'ly component to the sourced air flow. In conclusion, if you want spring/summer to continue, ECM is the form horse as it looks to rebuild heights from the south. GEM goes a similar route but keeps residual LP to the south so tempering things a bit but if you want something else, head for GFS. The 00Z OP is a real slap in the face for warm fans and while the 06Z keeps things settled for longer, the signal for a change to a colder more unsettled outlook with heights retreating NW and the trough dropping into Scandinavia is clear but far from certain at this time.
  7. Afternoon all Lots of people getting excited about next week's brief warm up which is understandable after the long winter we've experienced. However, the weather doesn't care what we want or don't want and goes on its merry way. Today I'll take the medium term analysis out to Saturday April 21st and start as always with ECM 00Z OP for T+240: The evolution is different to yesterday's 00Z and more closely resembles the GFS 00Z from yesterday. The HP is basically an extension of HP over western Russia which shifts west as the Atlantic LP stalls but the warm snap isn't going to last as the HP quickly declines South or South East and a new trough develops to the SW of the British Isles developing into LP and frontal rain coming NE. The SE is likely to see only light rain but Ireland would get more noticeable rain. GEM 00Z at T+240: Something different from GEM as pressure rises NE from the Azores and the trough shifts north so a generally fine and dry prospect but with the wind shifting from the SE to a west or NW'ly temperatures would ease back from their midweek highs. The far NW would see rain or drizzle from Atlantic systems. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Different again. The Scandinavian HP which was at one point a large and intense HP is declining but in situ so the SE'ly flow across the British Isles remains but the LP is now well into south western areas bringing rain and heavy showers to an increasing area while the north and east hangs on to something drier. Further into FI and the evolution remains messy but with heights to the west and later the north west it's a drier but cooler prospect. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: Well now, is that a retrogressing HP I see ? It's an interesting new development which I've not seen to now. The ridge keeps northern and eastern areas largely fine and warm but the LP is approaching the SW hinting at something less settled in terms of showers. Further into FI heights remain dominant to the north with the air flow over the British Isles ranging from a cool NE'ly to a warmer E'ly as we approach the end of the month. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: Heights rising to the NW and more of an ENE'ly flow as pressure drops over Scandinavia. The LP is still well to the SW over NW Spain so the weather remains fair for most away from the east coast. Further into FI and signs of a return of Atlantic influence as LP develops to the west of Iceland and promotes a broad SW'ly flow over the British Isles. The 06Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Plenty of warmth and/or northern blocking. The orientation and position of the HP varies considerably across the suite and has a huge impact on the air flow reaching the British Isles (don't look at P6 if you're a warmie). I'd say more uncertainty than the past couple of days and the eventual "breakdown" of the midweek warm snap still hard to call with retrogression a clear option based on the OP. Further into FI and the clusters are heading down two distinct routes - one favours a return of Atlantic influence while the other keeps northern blocking but more toward Greenland with a trough either over Scandinavia or closet to the British isles with a risk of a cold N'ly or NE'ly outbreak toward the end of the month. In summary, next week's 2-3 day warm snap will be welcome by many but it doesn't look as though it will hold until the weekend. As the HP declines, LP encroaches from the SW bringing an increased risk of rain or showers from the SW. From there, the Atlantic might return or blocking could continue with more of an emphasis on Greenland or the NW in general which opens the door to something colder (potentially) but we are a long way from resolution on that as you'd expect.
  8. Morning all Plenty of signs for something drier and much warmer next week though for now the painfully slow transition from winter to spring continues in lowland East London. This morning the medium term analysis takes us up to Friday April 20th: Starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: The trough close to or over the south of the British Isles dominates the rest of this week but next week an LP stalling and deepening to the west forces heights in front of and to the NE over the British Isles which becomes a new centre of HP over Denmark but it's not going to last according to ECM as the above chart shows the HP declining as a new LP developing to the west of the British Isles moves in. The trough is negatively tilted so will it dive SE or will it brush through Ireland ? Fine and warm weather for much of the east and south under a SE'ly flow but signs of more unsettled conditions coming into Ireland. GEM 00Z OP at T+240: Something very different from GEM this morning. Heights develop not to the NE but to the SE over Europe which is something we've not seen for a fair while. The flow is still a mild or warm SW'ly with the best weather for southern and eastern parts but the HP though broad is quite shallow while the LP is stationery to the west of Ireland so you'd think more unsettled the further west you are. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: After being on its own yesterday, GFS joins the ECM party with HP to the NE but the evolution couldn't be more different. ECM inflates the HP from the Azores with heights from the SW while GFS brings heights westward from Russia into Scandinavia. The HP starts sinking south from central Scandinavia to Denmark and tilts to orient NW-SE and this allows energy from the Atlantic to start to edge SE into south western parts of the British Isles so while it's a warm and increasingly breezy and fine picture for many the south west will start to see increasingly unsettled conditions with showers. Further into FI the trough eventually settles SE just to the south of the British Isles with heights to the north but at the very edge of FI the flow shifts more SE and much colder air starts to encroach from Scandinavia. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: The Scandinavian HP starting to decline but the Atlantic energy split both north and south. The British Isles remains warm and fine under a benign SE'ly flow. Further into FI that doesn't last and it turns very much colder as heights build from the NW and a NE'ly flow sets up over the British Isles. A real temperature contrast would be on offer if this verified. The GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Strong agreement on heights to the east or NE of the British Isles and a warm SE'ly flow. Some divergence over the exact position and orientation of the HP which is to be expected this far out but the overarching message is the same. Further into FI and all I'll say is fans of cold may yet have one last shot with plenty of Members showing heights to the NW and a NE or a variant of that setting up. We'll see.
  9. Late morning all A damp and disappointing start to the week in London but some signs yesterday of a hint of something better around or just after mid-month. This morning takes us to Thursday April 19th and we kick off as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: A strongly anticyclonic with plenty of dry and warm weather from an HP centred over Denmark. The easterly this week fades by Friday but the Atlantic disrupts north and south as the LP approaches western Europe with heights rising to the east and LP deflected north and south. GEM 00Z OP at T+240: Similar to the ECM and the evolution not too different. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: A very different evolution with persistent heights east from Greenland preventing the Atlantic KLP disrupting north so the whole LP moves SE keeping the weather unsettled especially over southern and western parts. Further into FI and the LP persists close to the British Isles even as the Azores HP tries to ridge in from the SW. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: A more definite ridge south from heights well to the north of the British Isles means a light ESE'ly for most and decent weather with the LP kept well to the SW. Further into FI and a brief flirtation with warmth is replaced by cooler conditions as heights end up to the NE with LP to the SW and SE meaning a broadly northerly flow over the British Isles but the coldest air always well to the east. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: More akin to the GEM and ECM than the OP and a more defined SE'ly flow. Further into FI as the LP approaches from the south, the flow shifts more east and eventually north east as the HP retrogresses to Greenland. The GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 A very strong signal for heights to the east or north east of the British Isles with OP and Control not far apart and leading the majority cluster. One or two Members have the LP a little closer but the net effect t is more wind from the SE rather than anything else. Further on and plenty of uncertainty as you'd expect but with no strong signal for any particular pattern. In summary, plenty of agreement this morning on heights building to the east or north east next week. Whether these develop from a disrupting LP to the west or from Greenland is less clear but the net effect is the same. HP to the east brings SE'ly winds so warmer and drier conditions for all. Southern and South-western areas would still be at risk from rain or showers if the 00Z OP verified. GEM and ECM break up the LP and send energy both north and south while GFS moves everything to the south or south east. Quite possible we'd see 20c from the GFS Control, the GEM or the ECM but the east coast would still be at risk from fog.
  10. Wouldn't it be fun to get that nice blue blob a few hundred miles further west ?
  11. Looking at the GFS 06Z OP illustrates the problem: If the Scandinavian HP moves too far east, the warm plume of air from the SE passes to the east and north east of the British Isles and instead the trough returns to southern areas bringing back a risk of rain or showers and re-enforcing the slack flow off the North Sea.
  12. Morning all No time for the detailed analysis this morning - back tomorrow - but some consistency starting to appear in medium term. The coming week's easterly now looks to be more short-lived than had been envisaged in earlier output but the incursion from the Atlantic also gets watered down and there's a strong signal for a re-emergence of heights to the NE by T+240: GEM 00Z OP: ECM 00Z: GFS 00Z OP: GFS perhaps a shade less progressive than the others. However, persistent as the signal for heights to the NE is, so is the signal for the trough over or just to the south of the British Isles so the Scandinavian HP keeps things fine for the north and west while the south and east are always under threat from rain or showers. Not sure we're going to get the sun-kissed spring nirvana some on here seem anxious to forecast.
  13. To provide some balance, the GFS 12Z OP doesn't really go in for a warm snap or spell. Things start to get more interesting at the very end: Anyone fancy an Arctic blast to end April ?
  14. Do you think the large inland figures could be from convection in the form of showers or storms ? The wind blows on to the east coast and meets the warm air rising off the land forming heavy and possibly thundery showers. I though the far NW of Scotland would do better but as you say the influence of HP and positioning of the trough aren't resolved yet. IF the trough stays close to the south, then more rain is the only call but ease that south and have the HP closer to the north and it would be more settled.
  15. Strange how some only want to comment on one model for some reason but that's their prerogative. Across the model suite, the easterly now seems confirmed: Nothing cold about that but unsettled especially for southern areas with rain or showers likely from the LP in Biscay - could there be a storm or two in that mix ? Maybe as there is some warmer air to the east the moisture could engage - one to note.