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stodge

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  1. If you want a dry April, the best way is to have lots of northern blocking with strong HP over Scandinavia keeping the jet far to the south and the LP over Europe. Some hints of that in tonight's 12Z CFS though the LP is never that far away from the south west.
  2. Evening all Far too early to be "calling" Easter - it looks as though we will get a brief N'ly next weekend as a transient mid-Atlantic ridge breaks the LP sequence and with a continuing signal for heights to the far north, the negative alignment of what looks a vigorous LP system coming out of North America looks a pre-cursor to potential trough disuption in the days immediately before Easter. A lot to be resolved on any energy distribution but those fearing an unsettled and potentially wet Easter weekend, especially for southern and western parts, may not be incorrect at this time but there's a very long way to go on this one just yet. The 10HPA charts suggest whatever zonal wind there is will be very light and the jet stream inclines to a more southerly track over western Europe.
  3. Evening all While those of us who enjoy looking at interesting synoptics may be more thrilled about T+240 charts than some, we all know they are beyond reliable and not to be taken too seriously. There is though more than a hint in this evening's output of "something" happening as we approach Easter. The first clue is the re-alignment of the trough, at the end of the week as heights start to develop south from the Pole and the PV sets up shop over Siberia. The LP dives SE into Scandinavia and we start to see a more WNW'ly airflow. In the week leading up to Easter, could we then see trough disruption to the south as heights continue to build to the north? Northern blocking in late March and early April - hardly unusual in all honesty. There are teases of a chilly E'ly but I suspect it won't be as dramatic but for those looking for a prolonged drier spell head north - the south is likely to remain susceptible to rain .
  4. Evening all To be fair, if you're interested in unusual synoptics or want a good spell of dry weather, there's not much for you in tonight's offerings at least in the short term. The next 10 days offer a bit of sun, a bit of rain, a bit of warmth but nothing to worry about too much. We might see a 16 or 17c over East Anglia next weekend if all goes well. The pattern which kicked in on January 22nd has broadly speaking been maintained, what I would describe as on the wet side of benign. Hints on some of the GFS members (including the OP) of a break in that pattern as the PV finally edges over to central northern Canada and we get heights and warmer air into Greenland which changes the pattern over us to a more traditional battleground of warmer vs colder airmasses and as we approach Easter the colder air wins temporarily but this is a long way from the reliable (the earliest hint, the PV starting to move west is at T+192) and only eye candy at present but it would be the law of sod to have a much colder regime come in for Easter.
  5. Evening all MJO forecast to enter Phase 7 at high amplitude early next week and then, as per usual, start to decline as it approaches Phase 8 in 10-12 days. Can anyone with the composites see if the current model output mirrors these composites? The rainfall patterns are consistent with a SW'ly flow so not good for the Lakes, North Wales or South West Scotland but much drier further south and east. Not much of a signal that I'm seeing tonight for a significant pattern change before Easter. On the stratosphere, what has surprised me this winter has been the rapid recovery from near reversals or, as now, more defined reversals. That would be consistent with a colder strat which is in turn one of the signals for climate change so the question for the future will be, even if a more turbulent and active atmosphere encourages more warming events, will they be strong enough to facilitate a strong enough SSW with strong enough downwelling to promote significant tropospheric impacts?
  6. Evening all The week's pattern - a long fetch TM airflow with an elongated trough positively aligned towards Scandinavia and heights over Iberia. Mild if not warm with above average early spring temperatures but unsettled away from eastern and southern areas with rain at times and I suspect considerable orographic rainfall for the usual suspects. By the weekend, hints the trough might start pushing east into Europe - obviously now we're outside reliable so just a few bits and pieces to watch. Heights over Greenland start to manifest but what pushes the jet south is the trough setting up just to the west of northern Scandinavia - that generates a cold N'ly which meets the warmer airflow to the south and generates LP which cross the British Isles so those hoping for a prolonged drier and warmer period look to be out of luck as we move into the final third of the month. 12Z GFS OP then brings in some quite cold air (-8 850s) with the trough over southern England while other models point to an unsettled and chilly approach to Easter. All conjecture at this point.
  7. Evening all A mild week once we get rid of the weekend's LP - a long trough aligned positively from mid Atlantic to Scandinavia feeds a flow of TM air from the south west so above average temperatures but rain for western and north western parts through the week. Hints next weekend heights from the north will elongate the trough more to the east as the jet is pushed south so the unsettled conditions spread to eastern and southern areas but beyond that far from clear. Obviously, 12Z GFS OP has plenty of interest but Control is more mundane so we'll have to see if it is an outlier or the start of a new trend to a pattern change. The ongoing SSW doesn't seem to have an immediate impact - my thought it might be a final warming not correct but the "recovery" in the jet from a reversal is nowhere that we saw in mid January - the zonal winds move back slightly westerly but it looks more like the proverbial dead cat bounce.
  8. Evening all The pattern for next week has resolved. The collapse of heights to the north east aided by residual energy in the Atlantic allows heights to rise over Iberia and consequently a long positively aligned trough ushers in a run of south west TM air. The one thing that won't bring is a prolonged dry spell - indeed, more soaking rain forecast over the next 7-10 days for the south west of England, Wales and especially the north west of England - the usual suspects. Beyond that, some idea the trough will finally clear through to the north east ushering in a colder spell with perhaps heights building to the west. The 10 HPA vortex temperature profile looks like final warming to me but little sign of a tropospheric impact in tonight's charts - again, as some have argued, the impacts of the SSW may be far from clear as yet. Longer range CFS charts play with northern blocking around Easter - nothing desperately unusual in that, April can be prone to E'ly or blocked evolutions.
  9. Evening all Starting to firm up the early part of next week and despite the main LP crossing northern France over the weekend, enough residual energy remains in the Atlantic to spawn new LP and keep a broadly unsettled theme going up to midweek. Those hoping for renewed cold look like being disappointed while those looking for early warmth likewise. A little respite for the south and east in terms of further rainfall but more soakings for western and especially north western parts. No sign of the SSW having a significant impact as yet but as it often the case in late March, northern blocking starts to show its hand to an extent. Hard to get the detail as yet but a southerly tracking jet obviously leaves southern Britain more vulnerable to further rainfall.
  10. Just glancing at the 12Z CFS - if northern blocking is your thing, you're going to enjoy April this year.
  11. Evening all A far from spring like weekend approaching with a fairly deep LP scheduled to be close to southern Britain by Friday and moving only slowly east into the early part of next week. The removal of heights from Scandinavia means there's nothing to stop the next LP aligning positively and with heights building back into the western Mediterranean it looks as though it will turn milder next week but not really settled with rain never too far away especially from western and southern areas. Signs of another trough disruption later in the month but little sign so far of a tropospheric response to the SSW. 12Z GFS Control is perhaps the most interesting in terms of keeping the PV over Siberia - other models try to feed the very cold air back across the Pole. I'm not sure the post-weekend evolution is anywhere near resolved as yet but the disruption of the trough to the south looks to be within the reliable.
  12. Evening all Without worrying too much about the medium term or FI this evening, the initia 96-120 hours seems to be falling into place with the Atlantic trough disrupting SE towards Iberia thus confirming some form of Easterly flow for the British Isles. Next weekend could be another washout for southern areas in particular. The heights to the NE don't look robust enough to hold and after a brief col, the Atlantic trundles in agsin but it's a very slow process commensurate with a very weak jet. Plenty to be resolved yet.
  13. Evening all Another fascinating batch of 12Z output. To be fair, far from all the models are in the "cold" camp - JMA being a good example. The key seems to be getting the Scandinavian HP to orient west and then north west to set up a more direct E'ly feed which in turn encourages the Atlantic trough to move into Europe and offer "interest" and "potential" to southern areas. We're a long way from getting the detail of next weekend resolved - we will have an LP close to the south west on Monday and the first manifestation of the strengthening Scandinavian block will be a shift to a SE'ly air flow (still mild) while the trough seeks a way under the evolving block from midweek onward. The risk comes if the trough fails to get into Europe before pressure rises over Iberia which would maintain the SW flow - it is a risk and not one to ignore.
  14. WYorksWeather That's not how it works though. If you have 10 of something at +10 and 10 of something at -10, the mean would be zero but there is no actual instance of zero. I look at those two diagrams and I see a lot of cold options balanced out by a lot of mild options. That doesn't mean "nothing to see here" - what it actually means is there are a number of warmer and colder evolutions in the mix as you would expect in March which is typically a time when warmer and colder airmasses meet and co-exist close to the British Isles. At the moment, the number ans strength of the former and the latter are roughly in balance. That means uncertainty and a lot to be resolved both in the near term and especially so in FI.
  15. IDO I'm much less convinced by "certainty" at Day 10 than I would be certainty at Day 4. This winter has been a fine example of the best laid plans of Day 10 forecasts not surviving to the "reliable". Let's see where we are this time next week.
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