That ECM

Dry zonal please.

Let’s be fair. Not what he said. He said into February possibly back end. No mention of winter done from him.

The first chart T120 ecm. If ever there was one that shows why anything past T120 is JFF then this is it. Met did their piece on track of low and what was likely and then the two less likely. None of their deep dive had it tracking this far south. second chart T48 ecm we’ve been watching this pattern come nearer for ages. Some said let’s get this in to the reliable and see what happens. Unfortunately for many it looks like snow will affect some but not as many as hoped. final point. The skilled imo people who can look at background drivers and give an idea of a general pattern have been spot on. Do not judge on the basis that you haven’t got snow in your back yard. Looking forward, it is suggested by the same people that a blocking set up may well be evident in the near future. Now I for one am pleased about this and will continue to look at the output to see. If blocking shows up in late gfs output and ecm then I will again only be looking at T120 plus JFF even if the met do another video. Anyone who claims they knew the details of this week awhile go is talking rubbish.

Missed

Missed

@tight isobar translate please.

Yeah, much better to look at this where there’s no garden path, no potential no interest no will it won’t no very cold week with bits of snow about. Thanks gfs for this chart. Miles better.

Track still not decided as expected.

Can’t keep up on here let alone going on any other sites so not sure what has been said or not, genuinely. I of course could be completely wrong and we end up there. Jeez I hope not.

Save this one and see if resembles reality. I honestly don’t think it will. Time will tell.

I wouldn’t call from 24th onwards. Too much going on in the output to be confident in anything. With the nhp as is a few tweaks good or bad would look very different later. FWIW I’m encouraged by what ukmo shows and how gfs is moving to it.

I think Tamara described the gfs as going straight through the wall, I would suggest that gfs is starting to workout that actually it’s better to go around it. Look at the early frames on this run. i know many will be looking at track of the low for obvious reasons.

He was using it to show track of low on this run.

You are going to awaken someone. Is there a name for it?

Each run it edges more to the ukmo.

Let’s see if it is even more of a straight northerly .

Plus ukmoPeople keep looking at later gfs. The same model that had the low entering Cornwall and departing via Newcastle not many runs ago.

Agree and because ukmo doesn’t go past T168 it’s often overlooked. wrt to fax chart above, I think it will look quite different when they draw the next one after the overnight output.

We agree. until T144 is on a similar page. Milder maybe. Very different to mild.

Maybe but as they have cloudless skies at the same time as this, they have different view on how we get there.

T168

T144. Confidently can say it will be cold. Other than that? Atlantic barrelling through?

T120. Greenland can not be agreed on. Next weekend Atlantic barrelling in?