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That ECM

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    Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.

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  1. It’s still fascinating to watch this unfold. Still to close to call at this stage in terms of who may see some snow. Ukmo has stuck to its guns but is still suggesting some will unfortunately not the majority. I think we we all know he’s not referring to winter. Considering the detailed posts he often puts up we should allow a short emotional post? Newbies should imo look through the output and see why it’s not as good as it once looked. Compare ukmo and ecm and gfs to help learning. It’s less stressful than just hanging on everyone’s words without being able to form your own opinion. fwiw imo some will be going to the voting booths with snow underfoot.
  2. I made a similar observation this morning and the ukmo is giving me the hump, sat in the corner at party sipping Horlicks. Ecm and gfs have put “Tramps Disco inferno” on and are up giving it large. Ukmo needs to get up and join in
  3. Ukmo ecm and gfs at t144. Ukmo is the odd one out but until all three agree anything past this is just makes interesting viewing.
  4. Ukmo at t144 is different to gfs. Not hugely but different. Now would ukmo go on to be like gfs? I don’t think so due to the angle of low but I’ll let @Steve Murr and others comment.
  5. As fun as that run is, we need to view it as JFF.
  6. If and its it’s a big IF this were to happen, somewhere would get a lot of snow
  7. I like these examples of where we maybe heading. Gfs quicker than ecm but going down a similar route. IF we can get near to this then some fun down line but can we get to this point? Or something similar. Output at the start of this winter has been and is fascinating. Beautiful crisp morning.
  8. Not sure why sl4 post is there still think fi is at t120 plus
  9. It would suggest that coldest day between now and the 17th is today and tomorrow, for that area.
  10. T192 gfs and ecm. Fi begins at t120-t144. Edit t240 ecm may answer your question.
  11. T240 gefs. I think the mean on this occasion is ok as guide.
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