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That ECM

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    Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.

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  1. When you see output that over our area of the world looks different from one run to another it’s difficult to have much faith in the outcome but if we are looking for themes then I would say look where the PV is and look at blocking been shown all be it in various locations. Detail is going to be impossible at this stage imo but certainly enough to keep us very interested.
  2. For me the run up to a potential cold spell and watching output showing great outcomes is nearly as much fun as the actual spell.
  3. And the other tip is touch the arrow in the original post and it disappears
  4. Thanks but I’ve got a “hunch” it might be mild brilliant post
  5. I think you should re read your last posts. You say thay 5/6 days is good for forecasting but beyond that pointless but your first post suggested that the whole of the winter was going to be wet, windy and mild. So what we going with 5/6 days or write off the next 100 days?
  6. I’m sure you are not alone in this thinking. You maybe proven correct, time will tell. However if you look at the longer term models and the strong suggestion of blocking in the NH there is more than enough to suggest that this could be an interesting winter from a cold perspective. We have seen some fi gfs runs which display a NH profile that we would welcome. ‘Worth remembering that we are 8 days from seeing the turn of the year on the ecm.
  7. Ukmo t96 shows what the t144 showed a couple of days ago. You then use ecm snow charts to back up that the ukmo has massively backtracked!!
  8. Usual caveats but I would like this as starting point. earlier in the run the ecm will be of interest to some in favoured locations.