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That ECM

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    Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences
    Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.

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  1. This was my post from Tuesday. As much as I took the Micky this morning with regards to the ecm, the far reaches of the gfs have shown heights in our area for the last couple of days. I have noticed before that if the output keeps churning out models with strong heights in "good/bad" areas in fi they may just be picking up a signal that the detail has yet to be agreed on. This has caught my eye over the last couple of days. The chart shown is the latest but if you look through the previous runs, gfs, recently you will see this on numerous occasions. Ecm may well have been on its own but is it playing with a signal for heights to build on around our part of the world? Today's commentary would be similar. There is a strong signal for heights in out part of the world. It's the detail of where it resides that will be important.
  2. Really cold here today, had to put a jumper on for golf!!!
  3. As much as I took the Micky this morning with regards to the ecm, the far reaches of the gfs have shown heights in our area for the last couple of days. I have noticed before that if the output keeps churning out models with strong heights in "good/bad" areas in fi they may just be picking up a signal that the detail has yet to be agreed on. This has caught my eye over the last couple of days. The chart shown is the latest but if you look through the previous runs, gfs, recently you will see this on numerous occasions. Ecm may well have been on its own but is it playing with a signal for heights to build on around our part of the world?
  4. Good agreement with ecm and gfs at t240!!!! Should be dry if only model output forecasting was as easy as weather fforecasting...........
  5. Isn't this quiet unusual for the upper air charts to flip so much in a short time period?
  6. Indeed. See you all later so we can discuss an obscure model showing snow out in the far reaches of FI because that's what we do.
  7. Sharper ridge in the Atlantic. Stronger heights over Russia on this run and looking more like the ecm from this morning. If the gfs strengthens the ridge as we get to t0 what could follow might be very interesting. With regards to nearer time and tracking of the low, I hope it goes south and weakens but we won't know for awhile yet.
  8. This maybe one of those occasions where fi for once is further out as all 3 are consistent upto t144, small variances but not dissimilar. The later output is showing interest and there are reasons to be hopeful. Watching the deep cold in US lift out being one imo. The chart attached says anything but our normal sw to ne feed.
  9. -8c 850's coming south of the m4 on this run
  10. Ecm, ukmo or gfs is cold wet and windy for most over the coming days. Some favoured areas will see snow but not for many. Gfs shows potential as it moves into fi. Potential and fi if I had a £.......
  11. This illustrates to me that more of the energy from the nw is being directed south as opposed to east and the block being modelled to be stronger than was first modelled.
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