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Everything posted by Skin

  1. Doesn't last. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/mrf3.nh.shtml
  2. The reason behind the odd QBO locking in earlier this year was due to the strong el Nino event. That explains a lot, actually. In the ensemble with observed SSTs we find a strong and significant alignment of the ensemble members in the equatorial stratospheric winds in the 2 to 4 years after the strong ENSO event in 1997. This alignment also includes the observed QBO. No such alignment is found in the ensemble with climatological SSTs. These results indicate that strong warm ENSO events can lock the phase of the QBO. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070751/abst
  3. The Last 2 GFS runs are showing a full recovery of the +zonalwinds, Recretos, by the weekend.
  4. Can we really use this as a tool? r=.48 doesnt stand out to me as important. As much as I love solar weather ( I run Accuweather Astronomy Facebook page) I Would like to see higher r squared.
  5. Yes in the study I linked shows a 15 K above normal. section 2.2 paragraph [10]
  6. I wonder if this is a response from the USLM disurbance. would be right on cue if so.
  7. A USLM (Upper Strat/lower Meso) disturbance looks to be developing. From studies, this would indicate there is a 33% chance of major SSW within 14 days +/- 2 from this point. To read more about USLMs, check out this study. http://www.academia.edu/4056817/A_climatology_of_polar_winter_stratopause_warmings_and_associated_planetary_wave_breaking
  8. 0z GFS shows wave 2 pattern then giving way to a displaced wave 1 pattern at 30mb
  9. The positive anomaly begins already at the 1mb level. just noting the warming has begun to an extent :-)
  10. Zonal mean zonal winds also seem to be dying down too by Day 10. Good signs!
  11. Just to add to the thread, notice the NAM is pretty darn positive throughout all levels.
  12. Wave2 is on the increase. Maybe that's what the prolonged MT is stirring up as well.
  13. Thanks. Great analogy. helps me understand better. And about the 1Hpa warming is anything to watch? looks to be downwelling at a decent rate. but i assume this is fairly normal this time of year.
  14. How can wave1 reinforce vortex? i was under the impression it would help break it down. Also I noticed warming at 1.Hpa. is that indicative of a Canadian SSW?
  15. And I run Accuweather Astronomy Facebook page, I know a lot about the solar events taking place and right now Sunspot 1654 is decaying somewhat. if it does produce a decent flare and CME, it would be a direct hit. As far as its impact to the stratosphere, it would need to get through the other layers first with a southward Bz.
  16. From America here.. We been watching it like a hawk. I have connections to Accuweather and been giving them the best thoughts of this years SSW with the help of you guys. So my gratitude goes out to all of yall. And I can't wait for the arctic blast!
  17. So as somebody from the US (east coast to be exact), like myself, this is bad news if the cold air is going y'alls way? or do both sides get some cold air action from it?
  18. BTW can we use this graphic for a blog? How should we credit it if so?
  19. This is a displacement SSW right? just want to make sure I am getting this right.
  20. Once a warming is identified, no day within 20 days of the central date can be defined as an SSW. The length of the interval is chosen to approximately equal two radiative time scales at 10 hPa (Newman and Rosenfield 1997). This condition prevents the algorithm from counting the same SSW twice, as the zonal mean zonal winds might fluctuate between westerly and easterly values following the onset of the warming http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3996.1
  21. I have been following you guys since last week. Just starting to wrap my head around this phenomenon. I read some interesting studies regarding SSWs and the frequency of them occur during Neg QBO coupled with low solar activity (minimums) and Pos QBO coupled with higher activity (maximums) since we are technically nearing maximum, but a very low SSN cycle, I would dare to say we could agree the Neg QBO proxy would work in this case. My point is, As long as the QBO hangs east, we'll continue to have more SSWs which would make me think is the driver behind global cooling. But i guess that could
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