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Ali1977

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Everything posted by Ali1977

  1. Ali1977
    Ok I think I’m going to discount the Arpege completely, the METO really insist it’s rain south of Birmingham on their latest forecast video and they will have the best info!! Chase on again
  2. Ali1977
    I just can’t believe how the Arpege can be 100 miles wrong at T48 - normally it’s a very good model as we get close!! I just can’t see it being right looking at the GFS and UKMO
  3. Ali1977
    Lukesluckybunch hoping the ENS have some members showing snow south of the M4
  4. Ali1977
    Battleground Snow awesome - surely we will see a southerly movement now on the others Actually even further south on the Arpege
  5. Ali1977
    Drifter I think that earlier Arpege kept us in the hunt, some deeper snow levels and it stayed colder - can’t see it happening on the 12zs (especially with warnings moving north) but you never know!! And the arome
  6. Ali1977
    METO délayed their deep dive video till 1639, I wonder if they need to see those 12z first
  7. Ali1977
    carinthian Birmingham to Peterborough would suggest a southward movement compared to what the UKMO/GFS/ECM are showing - maybe the Arpege and arome 06z are onto something
  8. Ali1977
    How should we rate the ARPEGE and AROME at T48 ?
  9. Ali1977
    sheikhy and fir cherry picking P29 looks good for Thurs onwards too - in fact it’s pretty awesome Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS) WWW.METEOCIEL.FR meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...
  10. Ali1977
    sheikhy add the AROME to the ARPEGE moving the snow south
  11. Ali1977
    Arpege Way further south , 15-20 cm in my neck of the woods and much of the midlands - clearly that’s wrong!!
  12. Ali1977
    METO gets rid of midlands warning but GFS still showing some frontal snow but it quickly moves north
  13. Ali1977
    Fax charts have kept the front further south fir Friday too Looks good
  14. Ali1977
    MattStoke bugger, good for your location though I’ll just have to hope the Arpege has it Fax looks a little better
  15. Ali1977
    Upgrade from Arpege, and snow line back south UKV also south again and it doesn’t send the system north introducing the warm air, midlands primed
  16. Ali1977
    Mcconnor8 typical
  17. Ali1977
    Pub run - come on, big correction south then awesome day 8 and beyond please
  18. Ali1977
    Tim Bland agree, might see some very wet snow for 30 mins then sleet to rain - if I’m lucky!! Not all that fussed for that!
  19. Ali1977
    northwestsnow thanks - in reality I think you’re in the best spot - especially in your new pad it’ll certainly be interesting to see how it plays out - marginal sometimes being the best thing for big falls ️ Chased a decent fall for years on here , I do feel I deserve one as many others do cost a fortune buying in this hill
  20. Ali1977
    Just looking at the EC ensembles for Thursday and still have the sub 0c 850s around the M4 at lunchtime - something tells me there’s still chance for some southern correction with this - maybe I’m hopecasting for my area - but as many know, these fronts often move south nearer the time.
  21. Ali1977
    MJB yeah I’m clinging on, but it’s all a bit disappointing - again !! We have very little time for it to swing back the other way - probably way passed that chance to be fair
  22. Ali1977
    EC
  23. Ali1977
    I’ll hang on to these images from the latest METO forecast - hopefully the ECM follows that
  24. Ali1977
    Lukesluckybunch there’s still time, probably enough time that it can miss us all into France knowing our luck
  25. Ali1977
    MattStoke still a fair shift south on the UKMO compared to others - I guess it’ll be another 24 hours of adjustments - but the midlands up to Manchester area certainly looks a good bet right now!!
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