Ali1977

Be I retesting to see where this GFS goes, I’m putting money on it going back to showing a decent 2-4 day cold spell from the north, METO are on board and they are usually spot on in the medium range!!

Back with a boom, not talking deep FI neither. I’ll give it another 2 days before getting too exited though!! Check out those windchill temps!! ?

That famous ‘south’ of the M4 snow Line !! ? This would help with some of those snow starved this year!!

Well, after a little break I have to admit it’s looking a little bleak for the foreseeable, I’m not a fan of late Feb/March freezes as slush becomes an issue in the sun - this year I would still love to see that though and we still have chances that could pop up earlier in Feb !! Not writing off this year, but next year looks far better with E QBO and coming out of Solar minimum. Happily write off this winter if next is going to be epic !! ?

That’s worth a little boom, A big one If it wasn’t at day 10.

Overnight control run is a belter with -12c uppers, there are a few others that have interest too. Yep, it’s FI but maybe a glimmer of hope. Control, make that -16c uppers into north Scotland

The GFS makes more of it, with colder 850s. Doesn’t make a diff to any snow in the U.K. though!!

Ian F mentioned the clusters show a broadly S/SE flow out at 384 , the CFS has this directional flow and look where that high is. You never know, next few runs may start throwing lots of peachy FIs in the mix !!

The ECM again flatter than GFS at day 4, the GFS seems to struggle even at this range lately, I’m sticking to the FIM from now on - a proper weather computer!!

A few decent NH profiles in FI. Still all on schedule for a 1947 type spell over similar dates ??

ECM is dire, EURO HP looks relentless. Prob one of those times to have a break from model watching for a week - as if people actually do that!! ?

This year is far from done, but was always going to be a struggle Dec/Jan with varying factors against us - if all ends in tears come April then I’m pretty sure the next few years coming out of a big solar minimum may bring the U.K. some proper freezes!! Long way to go yet, Feb could still be a blinder!! ?

An awful EC indeed, not an ounce of hope for the next 2 weeks should this be true. It was a big mild outlier on the 00z ENS, let’s hope so again although is it an outlier or the only one correctly mapping the next 10 days!! The earlier 06z GFS dropping the JET looks like it was way off the mark now!!

Yeah, I was hoping for a bit of support but nothing!! The Op is more powerful than the ENS though, so could lead the change