Ali1977

That’s is really impressive, main point you mention is the timing, if we do benefit I’m not sure there is a more perfect timing - long nights, slightly warmer sea temps than Feb/March which helps convection and a sun that won’t melt lying snow when hovering around freezing . All fingers crossed, keep an eye on that METO medium and long range for guidance .

What have we here GFS, very different to the 18z by day 8- in a good way hopefully. Just need that small low to break down and we could be on a winner.

Day 15 ECM ENS looks pretty good, HP just to our North

Better than zonal meh, and he has a good point. Might look like sinking but it also may be a new trend that may amplify on future runs.

Time will tell but even at T114 there looks to be better heights towards Greenland , could it follow the ICON and give us some new straws !!!

It can take 1 or 2 weeks following a SSW for it to take effect lower down, so we are talking about 1st or second week of January we should see some impact at our latitude (not necessarily the UK ), so let’s not get too worried about FI charts - they are rubbish at the best of times so trying to forecast the fallout of SSW is impossible at this range. What we can expect to see is a typical borefest of UK winter charts, then Around XMAS a possible flip to something special hopefully. As long as this SSW happens, the UK has a good chance of “big freeze”, the METO are forecasting and monitoring it so let’s stay with that. Also, I think GLOSEA was seeing a big warming (SSW) in Jan a few weeks back, is this still the case I wonder - and is this warming next week just a precursor- if so 2 back to back SSWs could have some serious potential.

Vortex getting more organised just in time to generate some real cold to our north ready to be ejected out with the SSW

Nope unfortunately, but the fact the METO have jumped on the cold bandwagon after this makes me think it wasn’t a one off run, or is maybe even stronger.

Glosea predicting a really strong SSW early Jan

No point worrying about FI charts being boring etc, the Stratosperic picture won’t be seen on any models yet - and although I’d love the UK to have a white Xmas I think any big freeze due to a possible SSW won’t be till New Year or just after. Just some normal winter type stuff till then, although today some will get lucky up North and at altitude!! I would hope to see some better looking FI charts by late this next week if all goes in our favour

The potential for significant cold is there in FI, although it would still be very cold over Xmas - setting up a possible beast!!

Great chart, there would be lots of happy people at Xmas should this happen

All this talk of zonal rubbish, this is the UKs typical winter weather and it’s just a case of waiting and hoping for something to happen. There are lots to be positive about as we move through Winter according to many professionals and premium models, and a possible SSW late Dec that is slowly gaining both strength and coming into a more reliable time frame . If the SSW impacts us then expect quick flips in Models in the next week or so - I’m a believer that the best time to have the perfect beast type Synoptics is Jan , and that’s looking a distinct possibility at the minute.

That is a cracking NH profile , hopefully something special brewing for Late Dec or Jan to coincide with the longest nights of the year. Stratosphere is primed with the SSW , and we don’t have to worry about it being late Feb /March as per some of the last few years

Not sure if this has been posted , some very good warming in FI on the GFS(P). I think that’s the best I’ve seen so far.