[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

15 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Anyone pulling an all-nighter to watch cloud lol

Nope no point, nothing reaches anywhere near here till tomorrow,  if it makes it here, waiting up for us is silly.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

28 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Were you outside Monday last week lol? We got pasted for a couple of hours.

18z Arpege ensemble gives a much improved snow chance on the 06z.

Imagine if this perturbation came off 

 

No thanks that explains why mine turns to rain on some models.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now, snowray said:

Has anyone noticed that the PPN on the radar looks is a lot further north? 

It is almost hitting Cornwall, don't worry if it's rain, over there, we'll have east winds by the time it gets here.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

10 minutes ago, Donna3397 said:

Well that’s a turn up for the books, snow snow snow snow snow snow snow snow snow goodness netweather

Mines not so good lol

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

5 minutes ago, Swave Snow said:

Seems also Rain too in Northern France 

Yep, will be freezing rain, some areas gonna get snow freezing rain snow. Very bad weather system for them.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just checked this sites generated forecast, I have heavy snow for 12 till 4, then sleet, at 5, then rain at 6,7,8,9 how far north is it going.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, Marie said:

When I left for work this morning it was -4.5 , it is now currently 3.6 thought it was going to be colder if I’m honest

I've still got frost on cars here, don't know temp, but also what looks like under developed shower cloud moving west to east.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 hours ago, PiscesStar said:

Alexis do you think Kent will see anything? 

I don't know but it's almost touching Cornwall now, think it might be further north, or perhaps follow the coast, I'm hoping for the former.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now, Ben M said:

Me later when the precip all heads through the channel and France even though that's what the forecast has been for days:

Yep think we'll all be the same.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

9 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Try. Not. To. Giggle

It will soon be touching Brest lol, moving north quickly.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Main front can now be seen on radar below Brest. We can now watch where it goes, fingers crossed time.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Was that the same year that one or two NW peeps got it right, too? I've been right three times over the years. . . 1979, '86 and '87 were very helpful in that regard! 

Yep I believe it was, and they used proper forecasting, especially the one who the got employment and couldn't post any more.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 hours ago, snowray said:

Maybe not such a bright idea.

You can imagine the headlines..

"Thousands stranded as Eurostar cancelled due to blizzards hitting northern France".

Thing is anyone that went over specifically for snow would probably expect that and not complain, it'll be the normal tourists doing that 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 hours ago, throwoff said:

He gets an insane amount of media attention considering he has never been right.

He was right once, and then things took off for him and his weird forecast method that probably only coincidentally worked that once.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 hours ago, snowblind said:

A bit too much cloud around for a really cold night here. Only down to -3.1 in the end.

Obviously the cloud isn't thick enough to produce any snow just thick enough to stop the temperature falling too far.

You must be unlucky, someone in the model thread mentioned snow in Chelmsford, so the cloud had something in it for some.

Sorry, didn't finish typing and somehow it posted it's self, must have pressed submit by accident somehow.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

3 minutes ago, Donna3397 said:

I haven’t been on here for a day, does anyone have a clue about Wednesday, keep hearing different stories, my weather apps are saying snow, then not and then back again

No one know yet, but watching radar to.orrow to see where it actually tracks.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

There something off the coast in the sw now, looks like heavy showers, don't know which way they are moving though, probably along the channel

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

That’s a runner LP and would be more violent than it appears due to the sharp pressure differential.

So basically ecm does agree with the storm on gfs

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, sunnijim said:

I think we started like this in October before the Storm corrected South on future runs and effected Channel Isles and Northern France.

Depends on any belt of high pressure over the continent as to Sothward shifts.

GEM and ECM not interested so still an outlier solution anyway.

 

To be fair it does look similar, however that doesn't leave this area out of the woods.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

12 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

We got that in 1990 burns day storm in the south west, we also had some strong storms during winter I think in 2013 that were severe but not as severe as 1990.

I have noticed that gfs does tend to over blow these lows several days out but occasionally they get it right. Some exciting weather none the less hopefully. A cosy day indoors I think 

It has support from the 0z meto, so I will keep an eye on this now.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

7 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Would be incredibly ironic if this hits wouldn't it? 

Can I just say no thank you, look at the winds over east Kent yuk.

[General Volcanic Activity Thread!]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Perhaps Teidi will go up for you.

Now either the GPS stations aren't updating or the eruption hasn't released enough Magma as majority of stations aren't showing any deflation after the eruption. If they are updating that means another eruption is very likely pretty soon.  It will be worth having another look tomorrow. I think it just a case of the data not being uploaded for some reason.

 

Probably some are damaged.

[Model discussion highlights]

Don't know if anyone rates these probably not, but it's an ensemble that shows all 4 of today's runs together, looks a bit of a mess obviously, but I'm only interested in the mean, all this is useful for really

Shows small chance of snow on Wednesday and a warm up Saturday evening for the extreme SE corner.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5012536

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Don't know if anyone rates these probably not, but it's an ensemble that shows all 4 of today's runs together, looks a bit of a mess obviously, but I'm only interested in the mean, all this is useful for really

Shows small chance of snow on Wednesday and a warm up Saturday evening for the extreme SE corner.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 hour ago, easton888 said:

Still find the way wednesday's low is modelled a little strange. It starts barreling towards the nederlands and then suddendly flattens out as if to squeeze through the channel like it's a pipe. Still think it will correct further north

It's the low in the north sending a front south, it sort of squeezes it away, that comes down slower, low will be slightly further north, all depends on the low up north.