alexisj9
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Everything posted by alexisj9
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I'm not paying much attention to the GFS for now, keeps being a warm outlier, fingers crossed it's not a trend setter.
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That one looks more like the Thames needs a little nudge, it's an easterly, fingers crossed, but a long way out.
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GFS I believe, and that really was a dire run for long term cold.
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Where you are if they are strong enough to make it yes. But that can be a big if.
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I don't expect anything from there this far SE. If it happens I'll enjoy it though of course.
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Yep looks like a cold continetal flow for the south and a warm flow up north, not quite what most are looking for but, I feel the likely out come for now. There's always room for improvements while in this pattern though. Like if the low to the west decides to push east under the low instead of over. Not looking likely on this chart though. -
Sliders slid down the east side of a block, a low pressure heading south on the outside of another low pressure is not a slider. It's just a low heading south. Personally I don't mind though, both can produce snow in the right circumstances, it's just I don't think the 6z is on of those, just to warm.
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I'm sure that's being monitored, if there is a chance of a surge there will be warnings, just keep a look out for those.
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Mostly the NE or E but it's not unknown for snow to come from the north, it depends on disturbances in the flow. NW London can sometimes get hit from the NW through the Cheshire Gap streamer, but other than that normally stay's dry and sunny.
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Well I'm hoping for a Kent clipper streamer if the wind is direct north here, if there's any west in it the showers, if any, will be out at sea.
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I remember that here, although it didn't really do much damage. The sea was right up to the road but not on it, it flooded up the river a bit but didn't break the banks. Only flooding that I'm aware of was an underpass that goes under the main road but above the river, that flooded but only there it didn't break out of the entrances either side.
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Agreed, although it does look like the trend is for the pressure to drop, just not as far.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
alexisj9 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
lol keeps a circle of milder uppers over me most of the time. -
I doubt very much it will make it this far south though, rain from the NW always dissipates or ends up just drizzle by the time it gets here, so even if the cold is here I do not expect the ppn.
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The good thing at the moment is, there's still plenty of time for something at 150 to upgrade, especially if it's a new idea being toyed with. Something to watch perhaps. Let's see if the idea is still there in the 12z.
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Interesting weather forecast this morning, rain showers in the SE may turn to ice when they hit the ground because of below freezing ground temps. Don't know if that happened anywhere mind, stayed dry and would now be to warm. I'm guessing the uppers were to warm for it to fall as snow.
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I'm afraid I didn't notice it when falling so can't say whether it was rain sleet or snow here. Was surprised when I popped to the shop and noticed that everywhere was wet and something had fallen though.
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The air was very damp under the high with wet mists and DP's close to the temp. So it kept the ground quite wet but that doesn't make up for rainfall, the river here is low.
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Another nice frost this morning.
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Think the low looks like going under on both. Unless I'm seeing things wrong.
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That sounds like good news for cold.
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Nothing silly about your post, a very relevant look into the history of forecasting, and interesting to me, and I'm sure others as well.
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No as that was the day I had to walk up the school to pick up the kids, because all the buses where stuck on Brighton road. It looked like oxford st going towards south croydon. Then once I was on the way back, still in the same place, so for at least an hour although probably much longer, the traffic didn't move at all. Ok must be thinking of another day of snowfall in 2010, it was the streamer that happened after the 2009 one.
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Apparently I'm supposed to get 10 - 20, yeah right I haven't seen any laid snow at all in the three years I've lived here.
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I don't know just got in after karaoke and playing pool, plus talking to the land lady afterwards for about 2 and half hours, and we have yet another frost on the coast. I don't think ground temps will be a problem, may be upper temps too low. Look out for freezing rain if it stays cold down south before the rain comes.
