[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

1 hour ago, Downburst said:

Reading the Model thread and I can't understand why my post was "hidden" earlier  (that means deleted) when I posted on the long term chances of a backloaded winter  Some of the superfluous one liners etc about Christmas dinners and all the rest on there, when some take their time to research and the mods just delete? But don't delete some posts that are very far removed from model discussion. I wonder why?

Probably got reported by many who still want the Christmas cold, as a wind up post.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

3 hours ago, baddie said:

Now, I would have to call March 2023 and April 2012 a "spring" month??? Absolutely not

Nope they were definitely winter months. As were march April and most of may this year down here.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

22 hours ago, Chasbrown said:

Just watched the BBC lunchtime forecast. No mention of a storm, just wet on Tuesday then mild and meh. 

Was talking about the model thread, it's still there on some models for Thursday, or was yesterday lol, not looked yet today.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

8 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

wet wet wet and very wet, and timed for day

Low is also more developed, hope it doesn't develop much more, or it'll move a bit further north again like it has since last fax chart, and be a bit windy down here too.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

8 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

updated FAX yuk, a worry? I think this is being downplayed

Looking at the charts, not by the met office, mid thread is to busy hunting for Christmas snow to notice, but they have flagged up a possible bug storm going down the north see, in a few models. Hopefully that moderates.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

10 hours ago, Sun Chaser said:

At least its not raining!

Actually it's been drizzeling here on and off most of the day.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

9 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

From memory I think Northwich is as far SE thundersnow has got from a NW’ly (from reports on here over the years).

Nope, I've had it in south east London many years ago though. First it was raining, with thunder, then I told my mum it snowing now, she was like nonsense it's thundering, couldn't say anything when she went out afterwards to a nice covering that lasted a few days.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

9 hours ago, Daniel* said:

The UKMO day 5 is really quite concerning thankfully I have not seen much support for a similar solution. This would be an impactful weather event a lobe of polar vortex experiencing explosive deepening to SE of Iceland and then pushing southeast down North Sea. I can’t say I’ve ever seen a strong storm take that NW>SE trajectory. I suppose it is possible otherwise it wouldn’t be shown!

It's happened, and caused major coastal flooding in the past, Thames barrier exists because if this. Was on GFS a few times the other day, was hoping it was a GFS over blow, if it starts showing else where, in reliable times, I'll start getting very worried.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

6 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

still dreading this for Staffs, Tues, I reckon amber warning to be issued, when a wave develops on the front, wettest setup for Staffs

Doesn't look nice for anywhere yuk.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

5 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m sure these things have been blamed in the past for scuppering cold spells, the actual weather, not just the model output!  There was one case a few years back, someone will know when it was?

That was a low that showed up in a slack flow, would have arrived at closer time scales cme or no cme in my view.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

5 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

Here's hoping it's our "we're over due for an X year" dividend for the next decade.

As long as x doesn't stand for storm of 87 I'm in, hopefully that x happened earlier this year and stayed south, and won't be coming back for another 20+ years.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

12 hours ago, AO- said:

Wind probability. Mostly west Southwest with the given EPS. 

Believe it or not, last year a sws at the bottom of the trough here in Dover, while UK was cold, was cold enough to get a covering, yep I was surprised too. Last December, however this set up does not look the same.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

17 hours ago, Snowangel-MK said:

Read all about it ️

…. bit of an exaggeration by the Mirror, according to the Express it’s only going to be a 473 mile long polar bomb..so that’s okay nothing to get excited about

 

 

Obviously talking about the possible wind storm in some models, it's too far ahead, GFS often over plays low at this distance. Hopefully it'll moderate when it gets closer. They normally do, but not always. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

7 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Mad Friday. That’ll stop a few going out. 

Not me, I've got a tourney on Friday night unless it's cancelled, I which case I won't go out lol it's only ten minutes down the road.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

8 hours ago, Daniel said:

Concerning gfs this morning in terms of wind speeds blizzards up north aswell 

Those would actually be blizzards, a lot of what people call blizzards here in the UK, don't have strong enough winds to qualify.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

4 hours ago, MAF said:

Last time i posted there i was shot down in flames for asking posters to elaborate a bit more and stop using abbreviations without explaining them. never again! 

I am quite a literate person, but some of the stuff posted in there is complete and utter tripe sometimes. 

It's met language not utter tripe lol, but yeah people do need to be mindful that not everyone will know what everything means. Most of the abbreviations once posted auto link to an explanation, but not all of them. Perhaps if it doesn't, they could edit and put an info link up.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

4 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

I’ve had 2 inches of snow fall here in December on a strongish NW’ly with uppers barely scraping -5. That’s at 55m elevation. 2011 I think.

Had snowfall here in Dover last cold spell.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

Any further East and it will miss us as per GEM12Z.

Yep definitely no thank you to that 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

6 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I may be missing something here, but the BOM plot seems to disagree with the ECM 46 plot about - the past, let alone the future.

I've thought this before, but I think it reversed, re southern hemisphere, that's how it makes more sense to me. But people said I was wrong about that.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

18 hours ago, al78 said:

After more delays on the trains this evening I found my cycle route home that normally goes over the river was now in the river. I didn't think there had been that much rain today but Horsham may have got hammered with more frequent heavy rain than London.

 

There was a big tail of showers with heavy bursts, though that storm in London was heavy, perhaps Thame big drainage system works better than people thought.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

18 hours ago, Freeze said:

Oh I realise that, what I mean is, last year there were practically no named storms anywhere even though there were quite a few vicious storms. This year they seemed to have lowered the bar required to name one. Maybe I'm wrong?

It always based on amber warnings, and in Ireland the storms were bad enough for that, it was Thier met agency that named both of these last two. We saw what cirain would have done had it been just a little north in the channel islands, although it did produce high winds here, it thankfully missed most of us so people though it shouldn't have been named, I disagree, as I was in the needed amber wind warnings, and it was mental here in Dover.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

On 11/12/2023 at 09:43, That ECM said:

Any cold was out in fi and still is tbh. If people are disappointed stick with ukmo up to T120. 
 

but where’s the fun in that? 
 

right, out to the far reaches of fi for signs of a potential cold spell for me.

Actually I prefer to stay in the reliable, myself.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

On 11/12/2023 at 08:44, Continental Climate said:

I think a lot of these posts stating "it's gonna be mild", "I told you so, we can write off December". " Don't trust the teleconnections, they aren't worth the paper they are written on", all these are just a thinly veiled attack on the people who do consider and study these teleconnections and the hard work they put into showing us their opinions and conclusions. Simply saying "I knew this cold spell was not going to happen all along", doesn't automatically make you a forecasting genius. Try putting as much effort into telling us why the cold spell didn't happen in the first place, instead of just saying " I knew it wouldn't happen. 

Also the time isn't here yet, so no one actually knows whether it'll happen or not yet.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

17 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Fair enough, zero consistency with these named storms is there.

They were always for Ireland and north England these two, I got rain, but wind wise, was never expecting much, and didn't get much. You alway have to check where the named storm is actually tracking, and not think, named storm, what storm. The storms happened, and did have bad effects where those effects were expected.

[Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards]

1 hour ago, Biggin said:

Yep same here in Beckenham...

It'll be the same one.