Barry Reynolds

Thanks SS.

When is the EC Monthly due out? I thought it was today, but not seen any mention of it.

I hardly ever post on here, but suffice to say I would be very happy with this evolution. The further into December for cold the better, November won't bring anything meaningful for us Southerners, no matter how good the synoptics.

I agree. The charts look stellar, but until the Met Office are confident enough to shout about it, I'm taking it all with a huge pinch of salt.

I rarely post on here, but I think the frequency of snowless winters varies greatly across the country. May be rare in Scotland, but not so rare in Devon away from the hills! We have been spoilt the last few years. Anyway, that aside, I've noticed recent tweets about a possible SSW event in 15 days or so. Does anyone remember if the SSW last year was forecast correctly by the GFS? Sorry if this has already been covered....

I know it's been sunny today, but why am I seeing so many people in t-shirts? Are they mad?

So what is everyone expecting, snow potential wise, next week when it does appear to get very cold here too? I know it's a long way off......

From someone who spent the first 30 years of his life in Exeter, and the last 11 in Bristol, it can be said that Bristol definitely has more snow events. However, Exeter had about 7 inches of snow in December 2010 compared with Bristol's inch at best. There must have been 3 or 4 occasions in the last 3 or 4 years when Bristol received about 3 or 4 inches, and Exeter none or considerably less, this January included. Which is preferable, one BIG snow event, or several smaller ones? I'm still hoping for a repeat of February 18 1978, when Exeter had 13 inches, but in Bristol as well of course!

Time for a moan. Looks like could be snow in Bristol on Friday, but I think rain would be likely after a few hours. And then, according to many models, us South Westerners will again be in the position of watching everyone else have snow while we remain cold and wet. One day, we'll have a blizzard similar to 1978 or 1982, and I'll visit the others regional threads and gloat. Hee hee!

No snow forecast for Bristol as usual. We had none last year, and about an inch in December 2010, despite being encircled by the stuff. I don't think the Gods like me! Great thread this. If we get more than a mm of slush I'll he surprised. Rant over.

Thanks bluearmy. But what is the Control Run, as in how does it differ from the operational and ensemble runs? It's name implies some kind of safety run.....?

Changing subject, can someone tell me what the Control Run is on the GFS ensembles? Also, the 850 mbar temp ensemble 'spaghetti runs' I see now and then, is there an ECM equivalent? Thanks.

Good point. I'll take a look at the 18z now then. And thank you for the welcome!

I would just like to say, as my first ever post on here, that the weather still looks far from boring over the next few weeks. Potentially some quite stormy weather from next weekend, some vigorous shower activity behind the frontal bands, and if you believe the GFS 18Z, possibly cold again from the 23rd. Far from days of warm sector drizzle or anticyclonic gloomy.