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BLAST FROM THE PAST

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BLAST FROM THE PAST last won the day on December 10 2023

BLAST FROM THE PAST had the most liked content!

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    Redhill, Surrey
  • Interests
    Weather, rugby, golf, fishing
  • Weather Preferences
    Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm

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  1. I think we are now seeing an escalation again…..I thought the hemispheric cold pattern would be setting up now for a cold/to very cold last 1/3rd of month, doesn’t seem so. I think last 1/3rd is still on…..maybe a very quick switch? Still holding out for something notable and lengthy….. BFTP
  2. blizzard81 I agree and an awful lot of the GFS ensemble runs do too. Far from a done deal at this stage. I love run 26…..if only BFTP
  3. could be an extraordinary end to 18z. LP over Iceland to drop SSE, Atlantic ridging to Greenland and linking to arctic HP? BFTP
  4. TEITS made me laugh when I read it Dave. Going forward as the 06z shows I think a quick switch will occur and models generally aren’t picking up on it yet. The difference between 0z and 06z is shining example….vastly different BFTP
  5. SSW incoming, QTR incoming, ECM signalling this…..keep watching, don’t give up the ghost….not yet BFTP
  6. daz_4 you are ‘expecting’ a now scenario. It isn’t now….10-14 for cold set up to develop….last 1/3rd of Feb into early March….I think ‘potential’ wallop. Of cse North UK in for ‘early fun’ BFTP
  7. Shenanigans. GFS earlier was on Diazepam. We now see the creep/shift back to the ‘anticipated’ scenario. Stick with it, don’t take each run as gospel…no matter what it shows. Watch the 24hr run for run, for me winter is still returning BFTP
  8. bluearmy indeed Nick there is complete agreement on this week! BFTP
  9. E17boy I think be prepared/of mindset we miss out, but if the LP does slide E/ SE as I anticipate then there is a chance the snow will shift southwards as it clears. BFTP
  10. I’m liking the synoptic development of the 06z a lot….and as crazy as it sounds it’s a run that is pretty much on my money. Timings look pretty good too. Icon and 06z GFS sliding the LP into near continent is how I saw and still see it. Then where the GFS heads to in deep FI….yep I like it and ‘generally’ how I think it will pan out. HP moving north/ NW settling there with troughing to our E /SE = cold to very cold with chances of snow aplenty…..Our winter is arriving it would seem. BFTP
  11. northwestsnow they won’t be conclusive no matter how ‘improved’ or worse they look BFTP
  12. mountain shadow which shows the lack of confidence at such short range and further chances of more adjustments . In their update they even quote that details could well change over coming days. I agree with @damianslaw that it could take up to at least Wednesday before it’s settled BFTP
  13. So my take on it. ECM and UKMO more on the money (and quite a few GFS ensemble runs). Snow moving S S/E after striking Midlands, Mid Wales Notrth etc as the LP slides into Low Countries. Cold HP to move over the UK from West (cold nights particularly). Then I’m ‘really’ keeping my eye on the developments after that….potentially where even more wintry set up develops. Lots to watch and wait for…but I’m with the UKMO and ECM direction with the shift S of the LP after it hits our shores. BFTP
  14. Personally I’m focused beyond Friday, ie from 10-14 Feb inwards….but am watching with interest the developments. Living in the SE I’m not anticipating anything next week, but if my suspicions are correct, there’s some potential serious winter weather to come. Don’t discount that strong anomaly signal for HP to our NW BFTP
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