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BLAST FROM THE PAST last won the day on November 4 2018

BLAST FROM THE PAST had the most liked content!

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  • Location
    Redhill, Surrey
  • Interests
    Weather, rugby, golf, fishing
  • Weather Preferences
    Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm

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  1. Looking at this morning’s ECM, that is a great example of my concerns this coming winter......the dramatic temp differences between north and south BFTP
  2. There you go again ..she didn’t even try to answer the question that is just plain fact. And why? Because the answer would expose her, because all she’s spouting out against telling people not to do, she does herself and has at home. BFTP
  3. My early overview....posted some early ideas elsewhere. For me rpM, pM and at times arctic maritime airmasses. No major HLB blocking having any ‘direct’ lengthy influence.....AZH playing its part if it retracts W/SW enough. In this sort of set up with Northerlies we need a lot of luck for snow of significance to affect the Midlands southwards. (Scotland far north England and NI could do very well). However, I believe there are some very strong energy peaks this winter and the best chance of widespread winter to strike is Dec (potential notable disruption) and same Bee Year into very early Jan.....but we will need a lot of pieces to fall right.....as Roger says track of LPs crucial, and how far south cold air has sunk.....high risk / reward scenario which means it could just be very wet. The theme of N/S split to be more pronounced in second half Jan and Feb generally. Very cold March with HLB Re Dec I hope to see early decent brief shots of winter in Nov, the way it shapes re southward penetration of cold could be a good indicator. BFTP
  4. Northerly regime for December, Deep storm activity for Christmas.....70/30 Scotland / NI....40% for Midlands / South my early guestimate BFTP
  5. Her total refusal to answer a simple question and utter arrogance was incredibly irritating. Talk about hypocrisy BFTP
  6. I’ll be doing my LRF early this year as I believe Nov has a chance of being classed as a winter month. But the issue I’m dwelling on is that I believe we’ll be relying on pM air turning into arctic maritime shots with HP to our W/SW playing it’s part (and with pronounced energy peaks could be very tasty)and I’m not wavering from that POV. Scotland, NI and Northern England to definitely benefit but what about the rest....it needs the type of GFS set ups in deep FI we are seeing to come to fruition. BFTP
  7. Yes it won’t be long lasting, I anticipate a ‘lively’ early Nov and not too mild either BFTP
  8. Could be a nice end of the month. HP centred to our E, mild by day chilly frosty evenings/nights. Have get this LP that’s going to/is controlling the weather out of the way first. Looks promising to me though BFTP
  9. Early thoughts from me, we’ll be pM air dominated with N’ly outbreaks and sub LPs coming into the colder air. I believe Scotland/NI and North E England will get early winter with potential potent northerlies if we get the displaced PV set up to E/NE. I think at times the South will join in late Nov into Dec with some big peak energy periods to coincide but with a N’ly regime we need a potent airmass for the south. HLB of any bite....late into season imo ..... BFTP
  10. I’m liking what’s now showing on models. I mentioned an aggressive cool/cold pattern is emerging. I think as we approach mid month there’ll be notable early wintriness for our hills. I think we are possibly staring down the barrel of the ‘theme’ of Autumn and early winter, cold pM shots aplenty with added bite. I’m gonna plunge in early this year...just like I think winter will. BFTP
  11. Those worried about lack of early cold pooling to our NE and Russia need not worry this year......interesting autumn coming methinks BFTP
  12. 120mm and I’ll go 9.7c with a view of adjusting. Well below average for most of the month but with wild swings a mild blip anticipated after mid month to have an effect before Cold again backend. BFTP
  13. I’m of the opinion yes. Indeed I think an aggressive cool pattern for autumn is setting up......leading to stints of well below average temps for both Oct and Nov. Big Steve Murr makes imo a very good point though re themes of extremes either way impacting on seasonal CET. BFTP
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