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BLAST FROM THE PAST

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BLAST FROM THE PAST last won the day on January 26 2013

BLAST FROM THE PAST had the most liked content!

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About BLAST FROM THE PAST

  • Rank
    BFTP

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Redhill, Surrey
  • Interests
    Weather, rugby, golf, fishing
  • Weather Preferences
    Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm

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  1. BLAST FROM THE PAST

    The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    A great forecast layout by RJS with some tentative bullish comments in there. I’ve got a hunch that verification stats could be very positive come the end of the winter. BFTP
  2. BLAST FROM THE PAST

    Winter 2018/19

    Sounds like a winter of discontent to me BFTP
  3. Amen to that Steve....Winter of Discontent.....to start with ? BFTP
  4. BLAST FROM THE PAST

    Report Climate change ipcc

    Sea levels flooding islands, NYC under water, total ice free arctic, etc etc etc as catastrophically scaremongered....none of it is anywhere near happening....Or it’s put back decades....yawn BFTP
  5. BLAST FROM THE PAST

    Report Climate change ipcc

    It’s been 10-12 years for decades.....seriously questionable. BFTP
  6. BLAST FROM THE PAST

    Winter 2018/19

    I have held back but I like the idea. Who remembers the Winter of Discontent ....78/79.....Maybe this will be ‘The Denier Winter’ (allegedly can never happen again)...It is on the table at this early stage....imo. I think there could be a few surprises. BFTP
  7. I know which one I’m inclined to lean to BFTP
  8. Indeed Frosty, there is some good signal from the models for retrogression of our HP yo bring a northerly blast backend of the month. I think this will continue to fruition..and bring the first snows to Scotland and peaks of Northern England..... this to take us into Nov.....Looking forward to that BFTP BFTP
  9. BLAST FROM THE PAST

    Winter 2018/19

    Cheers Pete, I honestly believe this minima is the precipice .....so here we go BFTP
  10. BLAST FROM THE PAST

    Winter 2018/19

    So an early look at my LRF for winter 2018/19. Before I go into it I want to say I believe a winter to rival a 20th century great will occur within the next 3 winters. Let’s start with why I believe this. Following taken from Spaceweather in relation to sunspot count. 2018 total: 165 days (58%) 2017 total: 104 days (28%) 2016 total: 32 days (9%) 2015 total: 0 days (0%) 2014 total: 1 day (<1%) 2013 total: 0 days (0%) 2012 total: 0 days (0%) 2011 total: 2 days (<1%) 2010 total: 51 days (14%) 2009 total: 260 days (71%) 2008 total: 268 days (73%) 2007 total: 152 days (42%) 2006 total: 70 days (19%) I compare 2018 to 2007 = 11 year cycle going forward. We know the winter 09/10. Potentially we could get an 07/08type winter...but I think we are past that as one can see we have still got 2 1/2 months to go and we are 13 more spotless days already....I think 190 but 200 is not insurmountable. I am also not of opinion of Gavsvid updates that this year ‘could’ be solar minima. 19/20 imo more like it. And if it continues as last minima.....moving on from this year we could be in territory not seen for over 200 years. (Interesting RJS mentions 1819/22) El Niño (weak?) so not unfavourable Will the cold Atlantic to our West be of relevance? As already posted as snippets I think winter starts early. So overall theme I feel prevalence of northern blocking with Scandi Blocking likely to be a player with at times an active jet bringing in LP systems but ultimately failing to upset the rhythm of winter. December - colder than average. I won’t put too much meat on bones yet but after a wintry first half I suspect blocking to be in place approaching Xmas and then an Atlantic trying to push in against a cold block that won’t give way (period of note possible). I say it won’t give way as I anticipate January to continue with the colder than average winter. January - colder than average - 1st 10 days earmarked for potential coldest temps of winter with cold block established over (if anticipated) snowfields are widespread. I think mid and backend of January to be potentially very snowy with LPs attempting to take over the ‘general’ pattern as I think the blocking will be at it’s most vulnerable as we enter February February - Average overall but wet. I think the rhythm eases somewhat and we could see winter wane. There is a possibility that jetstream holds on southerly track and wintry conditions elongate but Atlantic vulnerability I’ll call it. A winter to match a 20th century great over next 3 winters?...means I am saying it could be this one. For sure imo we have entered a period going forward where we could be in the game for some serious synoptic patterns. Serious cold and long is still very achievable and imo going to become ever more achievable. As always, with blocking if in wrong place then is a blow out......and Greece etc are locked into an ice age and we are distinctly average, bland even a touch mild....but better to have prevalent northern blocking to put us in the game for cold. I’ll add more with what I identify as ‘periods of potential most impact’ in Nov..... BFTP
  11. We see how it develops, it wasn’t meant as instantaneous change, let’s see how it pans out regards BFTP
  12. Models seem to be edging now to a storm track edging further and further south latter half of Oct affecting more and more of our neck of the woods. Initially we see the swinging north as it hits the HP domination.....that’s going to change as we see a different animal for the latter half of Autumn. BFTP
  13. BLAST FROM THE PAST

    Autumn 2018

    why not? Just a POV re forecasting.....something in my water.....seasonal is just that...more like the norm...but I anticipate Nov to become generally ‘cold’ especially latter half. BFTP
  14. BLAST FROM THE PAST

    Autumn 2018

    Second half of autumn will be a different animal to first half.....much more seasonal BFTP
  15. BLAST FROM THE PAST

    E.N.S.O. Discussion

    It’s as if El Niño is a new phenomena that gets me..... BFTP
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