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BLAST FROM THE PAST

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BLAST FROM THE PAST last won the day on January 26 2013

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About BLAST FROM THE PAST

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    BFTP

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Redhill, Surrey
  • Interests
    Weather, rugby and countless other sports
  • Weather Preferences
    Strong winds and cold. 24c and fairweather cloud

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  1. Well I think it is more on the money so it may not be just for fun. As we have seen many times this winter two big models at odds with each other. Maybe some blending or maybe more strengthening of either scenario dragging the other model in the right direction. Seeing as the big differences are 5-7 days down the line then I think we won’t see which for a few days yet. BFTP
  2. I’m very interested in the ECM view of the next ten days as it continues it’s idea from yesterday morning. It definitely thinks GFS is headed the wrong way like I do. Indeed with deep low/( potential PV displacement) over us at day ten with potential N, NE and possibly E winds to follow into beginning of Feb is still in my view the way to look. Colder air never far away on the ECM flirting and ready to pounce at the backend.....UKMO again agreeing with squeezing the HP SW. very interesting week ahead.....and it is snowing in Redhill albeit no chance of settling... BFTP
  3. A model saying......where do I go? BFTP
  4. GFS now showing signs of the HP control being the potential wrong direction. UKMO showing further squeeze south. So what I look for is deep depression / displaced PV coming in from Atlantic on fair south trajectory crossing the UK as we go through last week of the month and into Feb. I am encouraged by what may be developing on the models. I was interested yesterday on the Beeb forecast when they said Sat had gone backwards due to the failure of the front to push through NE. Made think...is this the start of the adjustments BFTP
  5. strange for you Catacol......not for me. When one sets out the plan..the idea is the plan verifies and as one progresses the verification gets better and better....and that nothing should override in a big way what is forecast. It isn’t a criticism but that what Ian relied on was misread or was overridden.....something experienced by all BFTP
  6. It’s transitory on all models and that doesn’t show the High winning out as there is strong westerly flow, so the high Fails to build in. What is interesting to note is that UKMO and more so ECM as it goes further, is that there is a shift south of the LP coming in and after the High is squeezed south. I think we could see some more deep depression activity come in and the further south the more wintry for some. For me tentative signs for the end of month turnaround to coldest spell of winter. I think GFS is headed the wrong way BFTP
  7. Not a good update Ian.....why should it change using your method? Indeed that becomes the fate of all of us and we try to see why BFTP
  8. No scientific links to post but all the info is out there eg spaceweather etc as most are besotted by AGW science. Folk normally round up on us as crack pots who think that solar/lunar effects have any control over our weather BFTP
  9. Yes definitely upgrades coming, don’t discount my ‘big solar wind hitting Earth affecting the jetstream’ musings. What we are seeing is pleasing, probably more tweaking yet. I mentioned re watching models for momentum or glitch.....I’m thinking that it was glitch re horror show.... BFTP
  10. ECM keeps it interesting.....and I’d support that. Really like the idea it has at t240 as well. I’ll be looking for upgrades re the pM punchiness and longevity rather than any Azores Ridging spoiler. Back in Swansea (to deal with business end of stuff) and it’ll be rollercoaster enough to match my emotions ;-) BFTP
  11. So deteriorating Synoptics on 00z runs for any prolonged cold pattern. We are currently travelling through strong solar wind burst from coronal and thus I anticipate a ramping/ certainly consolidation of rough Atlantic affect mid week....not that it isn’t showing lively enough currently. Track of that ‘runner’ and how it develops sure one to watch ( sun is blank again)....so changes are imo still up for grabs re jetstream movement and track of the lp. Down the line still no reason for me to not still forecast another displaced PV movement over us to usher in main event during the last week of Jan into Feb. However, on my above basis my view is that we will be Atlantic driven over coming 2 weeks, but hopefully continuation of cold pM air. However, the model movement today needs to be watched for momentum or being a glitch. BFTP
  12. ECM has reload of Displaced PV attack from 23rd...after this initial assault i’m Of opinion that more of the same will follow. So much to watch for....next week will be wild.... def...... especially towards back end of the week....beware too early easterly blast BFTP
  13. Willetts said that!?......Ice age has arrived....knew it BFTP
  14. This Atlantic thrust has come earlier than expected as in it’s penetration through us. The fact there’s signs of it getting disrupted I’m not entirely surprised as I anticipate another displaced PV chunk to hit us towards last week of the month. So for me what is initially coming is a bonus....let’s see what develops onwards....but any break in cold Synoptics is only resetting for main surge. BFTP
  15. Wet hey.....been lurking and waiting for this. Back to Swansea on Sunday to take care of business side of things..,gonna be a long week for more than one reason. I’m ok gang, waves come over then calm. Like the weather. This initial assault looking far more penetrative than thought and what I anticipated for last week of Jan....ECM possibly showing re-load to another bash. Uppers are very low for usual Atlantic uppers no doubt BFTP
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