NoTraction

Evening All South Eastern Snow Friends from South Wales. Despite it forecasting a good event and the radar returns showing quite decent signals, its been snowing off and on for about 8 hours and ive got about 5mm.... mostly snizzle Those who are missing out, you are not alone! Sometimes things dont quite go as hoped. Just thought id have a look in and see how things are going on the East Side Massive

OK so its now just gone 10 pm and lets see where we are compared to forecast.....see charts above for 10 pm forecast. Latest Radar 21.55 models for 1.00 am 18z gfs 1.00 am 12z gfsp 1.00 am 12z Arpege 1.00 am 18z Hirlam 1.00 am Not looking such a fail after all.. just less intense than we were hoping for. Front is filling in south west areas and i can con firm it is snowing here but light. some legs in it... Notice the 18z runs show it a bit more intense at 1.00 am than the 12z with newer data. Couldnt use all 18z as haven't all updated yet

Well.... Yesterday mornings model runs were epic and thing seem to have lost intensity since then for Wales. 11 am today the Met had my location down for 3 hours of heavy snow and then 3 or 4 hours of light to moderate, so far weve had 10 minutes of heavy snow and some snizzle...... This afternoons 12z runs: gfs for 7 pm gfsp for 7 pm Hirlam 7 pm Arpege 7 pm current radar image 18.55: Big fail there over Wales so far.... lets see what they show for 10pm: gfs 10 pm gfsp 10 pm Hirlam 10 pm Arpege 10 pm Lets see how it goes but all are from todays 12z so.............. Arpege seems closest ignore bottom 2 images cant delete

Turned back from sleet to light rain in Carmarthen

Just started to rain here in carmarthen. 5 minutes later it is now sleet

Every weather event goes down to the wire no matter your preference. Someone posted in the MAD thread yesterday i think, that 1 in 10 channel lows verify. Personally I think 1 in 10 snow events verify anything like modelled. But... there is nothing better than just when your expectations are low and your fed up with all the hype and down it comes sticking like sh#t to a blanket and covers everything for miles around. Trainers or shoes wont do, need to find the wellies and it keeps snowing. So white and so clean, like a picture perfect postcard and its silent. Some of us are going to get this inside the next 24 hours

My best guess Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Cardiganshire, and south of M4 yellow warning 3 to 10cm Further east you are so Cardiff area more chance of being in the amber zone Valleys and Mid Wales up to about Builth Wells, Amber Warning 10 to 20 cm may update to red in the morning if still taking similar track as it will be disruptive in evening rush hour and therefore dangerous for those on the roads trying to get home Further north remain in yellow warning as uncertainty of northern extent.and less intensity. However these are based on computer Algorithms and are just a good guess/ forecast.... so as long as you are in a warning area dont be surprised to get more or less as the frontal system will do as it wants not what its told..... further north, further south, east, west, pivot, stall, intensify, fizzle out in parts etc you get my drift... who knows? Nobody!!!! looking great at the minute for tomorrow

Icon - Welshpool Arpege - Welshpool. Hirlam - Liverpool Gfs - Liverpool Gfsp - Chester Also to add possibly coldest night this winter tonight so ground will be hard cold which is what we want

Icon 06z also a great run for us tomorrow keeping things further south which means less marginal at the coast. Gfs 06z slightly further north Cardif still all snow... It then goes on to build a scandi high by Tuesday putting us in an easterly flow Hirlam 06z good run 12+ hours of snow Arpege 06z good run 11+ hours of snow more marginal for Pembrokeshire Carmarthenshire on the coast but is out weighed by the rest of the suites Will definitely be Amber warnings out for south wales based on that lot

Different setup this time. Last time it was ene winds with bands of precip coming from the east. This time ese winds with a system moving up from the SW. I think West facing and South facing hills will be hit hardest.... And to answer some concerns Yes it is still on! 06z Gfsp is a stonking run for mid and south wales...... north wales still sees snow just less intense

The latest Harlem run shows all snow for the south coming in to the south west at 12pm and snowing for 13+ hours..... Here's Hoping!

I think Thursday could turn out similar if the shape of the low is not favourable for us down south as to much warm air will be pulled up in front of the system. I am hoping it does not do that!!! Just trying to keep grounded at the min and it has shown this option on some runs.

One of Thee best snow events i can remember was 2009 i think! Got up for work 6am straight to the window, gutted, it was raining heavy. Left at 7am drove into Carmarthen through the rain and on the top of the last hill it was a bit sleety and then back to rain...... I was depressed...... At about 9am it turned to sleet, then snow. I thought what a waste it wont stick now there were streams of water running down the road and everywhere was soaked. To my surprise it started to stick, the streams quickly turned to streams of snow! Within a few hours it was chaos! The gritters were out but had little effect. The main A40 dual carriageway which is essentially the M4 was gridlocked, lorry's got stuck then cars. hundreds of vehicles were abandoned on many roads. The police and ambulance hired/commandeered plain 4x4's otherwise they couldn't get anywhere. By about 2pm we had about 6 to 8 inches everywhere of the non melting / very slippery white gold!!!! After that year I have never worried about rain preceding snow and am much more relaxed to let nature do what nature does!!! Magical times! Good luck to all! Looking promising this week with the updated warnings!

A lot of posters claim the ECM to be the current top dog of the models and when checking the verification stats it does indeed mostly come out on top..... Now the BBC have switched from METO to ECM their forecast is now poor apparently!........What????

To early to tell about Tuesday, not even the pro's know the answer to that sorry. It is easy to forecast that there will be rain but to forecast snow in systems moving from way out at sea is more a case of following where these systems end up heading and what the conditions are like when they arrive in to our patch.

12z runs are mostly looking superb for the week ahead gfsp, meto, ecm, icon all look good for cold weather fans. Snow will be a shorter term thing to look out for but i'm happy with where we stand now!!!!

Not sure if its been posted, ECM still going for cold Feb, although signal is not as strong towards the end. week 1 28/1 to 03/2 week 2 04/2 to 10/2 week 3 11/2 to 17/2 week 4 18/2 to 24/2 https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

Yes 06z gfsp is an upgrade for Tuesday night and probably the whole country on the back edge of the low will see rain turn to snow.........BUT it is on its own at the minute with the snow potential. Still time for other models to come on board!!!

I was hoping for upgrades overnight but I don't see them. I think down south, away from high ground we will struggle to see snow never mind settling......... and a sleety mix for heads of the valley's north Lets hope for upgrades through the day today!

Yes gfsp 18z possibly the best run of the winter so far for us in Wales. And the cold arrives in 36 hours.... Feet firmly on the ground though. lets look for support to build from other models on the 0z runs with regards to duration of cold. Long range models are all going for cold February so i am expecting(hoping) to see a shift soon towards this sort of outcome...

Mid and North Wales looks the best! Get In There!!!!! Oh,,,,,, i just remember'd i'm down South..... lol. Well here's hoping we get in on some White Action right down to the coast. Snow line will change up an down with each model run. Good Luck everyone!!!!

Not disputing the fact its a great chart but i get confused what shade of blue is -8. I take it that its showing between -6 to -8 over the whole country and not -8 to -10?..... also it will change as we progress, hopefully for the better! Tia

If i'm reading it right, is that not countrywide -6 with tiny pockets of -8?

However there have been many ups and downs on this Roller Coaster.... Lets hope its not the top of a medium sized loop only to invert upside down and back down we go. It reminds me of the old Black Hole in Alton Towers where you couldn't see where you were going....... I would like to get off as I feel a bit sick, but you cant halfway round, we are all on it till the end! HOLD ON TIGHT!!!!!

I don't understand all the negativity and depression in here! Anybody who didn't know would think that we had been aware of very good background signals for weeks and that the METO were predicting cold and that even the models may have been showing winter wonderland charts or an easterly or something in the semi reliable.............