Ravelin

As the weather cleared from grey murk to blue skies around Stirling on my drive home I decided to take the scenic route up the A93. It's slightly shorter distance wise, slightly slower, but prettier and avoids potential Dundee queues. Stopped at the summit at Glenshee for 5 mins to enjoy the view looking south as the sun was setting.... Looks like plenty of snow higher up, but I suspect it's not actually that deep. Ski slopes themselves looked poor unfortunately, hopefully they'll improve this week but I suspect they need quite a bit more snow. Temperature on the drive varied wildly, sure I noticed -7C near Spittal of Glenshee, and certainly widely -4C around Braemar and Deeside. The ski center was sitting around freezing despite the extra altitude. Some quite thick mist from Ballater through to past Tarland, and then again around Alford.

Wind direction doesn't directly follow the isobar contour lines, but blows at an angle to them. The winds around a low pressure travel in an anticlockwise direction, but at an angle towards the center of the low pressure system. Think of it, the centre of a depression has a lower pressure than the outside, the pressure is trying to equalise, so it's trying to get to the centre. High pressure systems are the opposite, winds travel clockwise, but at an angle away from the center. As we are on the western side of the low pressure coming from the N/NE then the wind will come from more of a NWerly direction despite the isobars showing a straight Northerly. I'm in the central belt this morning where it's 1 to 2C, very grey, and with a chilly breeze. Driving back up to Aberdeenshire this afternoon to make sure I get my cm or two of snow on Sunday. Warnings out for northern parts already, but not sure currently forecast amounts are really going to cause any problems.

The above has caused consternation in significant swathes of the MOD thread as you might expect. Solution? Move to live several hundred miles north, or nip across the channel and set up home in Northern France (must be plenty of spare dingies is storage in Kent somewhere). Alternatively, wait for the next model run as it'll all change again. Looking like a half decent chance for us north of the border of seeing snow, with the N & NE contingent maybe starting to see wintry showers from Sunday onwards. Except @Hairy Celtof course, as north of the central belt he appears to have chosen the least snowy place to live.

Which is why the bun fight in the MAD thread earlier this morning was so hilarious. It'll snow, no it won't, it'll be too far north, no it always ends up too far south, the ECM is more reliable, no the GFS deals with these situations better. I know we all want to see snow but get a grip, it's at least 3 days away, absolute minimum, so no forecasts for snow are accurate at that range. Thats even if all the models were agreeing, when in reality they are flopping around like a recently landed fish at the moment.

But that's a disaster, it's all green south of Manchester.

In line with others in the surrounding area we have had a dusting of snow here this evening. Temp stubbornly sat a few tenths of a degree above freezing. To illustrate the point @lorenzowas making, here's Monday's charts from the main 4 models... Can you spot the odd one out? UKMO probably the best, with the most direct northerly, then ECM as the lower heighrs (blues) aren't as far south, GEM next as again it's all further north and a bit west. GFS has lower hrighrs encroaching on Greenland and then later in the run becomes a real mess. Doesn't mean it's wrong though, and it's been doing something similar firca few runs.

Can't see much evidence of this outside just now, phantom snow?

I suspect the latest ECM run might have calmed the nerves at least a little. Yeah, and foreign snow is much more exciting and exotic than plain old Scottish snow.

You've all confirmed what I knew after looking at the last GFS runs, NOT to visit the MOD thread this evening. UKMO is looking good though, and we'll see how ECM fares soon too. I'm convinced we'll be cold next week in Scotland either way, still to be convinced that many of us will see more than an odd snowflake though. Commute this morning was largely done in -3C temps, with car being a bit easier to defrost. Commute home it hovered around freezing or -1C most of the way. Difficult to tell in the dark but the Vale of Alford looked like it had retained/built frost all day. Local weather station to me says min - 3.5C, max 0.3C, but I'm sure some others in the area will have recorded an ice day.

Temperature here was varying between -4c and -6C on my morning commute, and the main problem for me was getting the car ready to drive. There was a thick frost on it, and even turning on the engine for 10mins before I went back out made little difference. De-icer, scraper and cloths were then deployed on both the frozen outside and inside windows. Took about 20mins before I could see out enough to move. More damp and misty on the way home, temp 0C to -1C. Roads in either direction weren't too bad, just a couple of icy patches where water was still running off fields. Currently sat just above freezing, which is just about the max for the day so far.

Better hurry up then as tonight's pub run is predicting a Day After Tomorrow scenario for the Highlands mid month... Brutal. Be nice if that happens, but I'm not betting on it.

Glad to say the wife, dog and I survived a pleasant 1hr30 walk in 'brutal cold' this afternoon then, around Loch Kinnord (which involved a bit of puddle jumping and fence hopping to avoid flooded bits of the path, as the water level is very high). A bit cloudy here, max of 3.5C but only for an hour or so in the afternoon, mostly cooler with frost and ice lingering. Looks like most of the rest of the week will also be 'brutally cold', and if that's the case I hate to think how they'd term what might happen up here the following week.

Slight frost this morning, calm again, some broken mid level cloud currently hiding the sun after a decent sunrise, temp sitting around 1 or 2C. Week ahead looks cool, a sunnier cool earlier in the week then more cloud the second half. Next weekend onwards is still a bit uncertain, models are wobbly and inconsistent. I think it's odds on it'll be cold again at the start of next week, 15th, especially for us north of the borde. Quite how cold, for how long and whether it'll snow is still far from certain.

Sorry, just jinxed winter as I've ordered new tyres to be fitted on Thursday, so it's almost certain it'll not snow now. Had to take a run into ARI in Aberdeen for a routine appointment this morning. On the way in the car was showing 1C around 10:30 , backed up by the slightly sleety rain rattling off the windscreen. Strangely it was dry from around Westhill on, and stayed so until after Dyce on the way back as I detoured via shops in Inverurie. Pelting it down in Inverurie between approx 1pm and 2pm, but sky cleared from the SW as I got back to Alford, so subsequent dog walk was thankfully dry, but chilly. Max of 3.5C around 3pm, dropped to around 0C now so likely icy in the morning. Edit: Just in time for most schools starting thier prelims @lorenzo, wonderful timing to cause maximum chaos, if it happens.

It's a chart of the temperate of the air higher up above Scotland according to forecasts from the GFS model. What it shows is that after around the 14th Jan the upper air temp drops markedly for at least a week, cold enough for snow. It's still only a forecast, but despite half of the posters on the MOD thread having the wobbles this morning it's still looking likely that we'll be going markedly colder after next weekend. Edit: As illustrated by the end of the latest ECM run...

Been keeping an eye on this too and I think it's about time I finally pull the trigger and get a new set of all seasons on the car. The current ones are sitting around 3mm front, 4mm back, so easily legal for a while yet, but likely not as effective in deep snow as they will have been the last 2 winters. Pretty benign day here today, temp between 3.8 and 5.2C, dry, reasonably bright at times, not too windy.

Drove back from my folks in the central belt early afternoon. It was miserable pretty much all of the way, but the stretch from just north of Dundee all the way back to Alford was horrible. Not quite flooded, except for a few big puddles, but loads of surface water, misty and rain of various intensities. Looking at the fields either side of the A90 and A947 we really, really need a decent period of dry weather, and/or anything falling from above to at least be of the frozen variety. It'll be interesting if the forecasts come to fruition, if so there are going to be a lot of natural ice rinks around.

I've pretty much stopping watching the TV news as its just so depressing and infuriating. The inaction from one country in particular in relation to Gaza, who by just condemning BOTH sides could probably reduce the number of innocent deaths massively, is galling. I also work with a couple of Ukrainian refugee kids at school, who are lovely, but who knows what and who they have left behind in the search for safety. Anyway, weather, yes I'm sure we could all do with some dry weather. It's been so wet overall in recent weeks that now even moderate rainfall is causing flooding problems, as there is zero capacity left for the ground to cope. In the absence of snow I'll take cool/cold and sunny please. Models seem to be showing high pressure situated over or around the UK next week, but a lot of variation on where exactly it is positioned. Finally, Happy New Year to everyone. Hope you all have a great year. This will be the year we get the last of the three kids out of school. There might be other big changes coming along too, but more on that later if it happens.

Straight to cold rain here, 2.5C and rattling off the windows. On to the next search, second week of Jan perhaps for something decent maybe? Just in time for the schools going back, and prelims starting soon after for many.

Not started to snow/rain here so far today,but got out with the dog in advance just in case. Don't mind walking in snow, but rain or sleet, no thanks. Picture is from the 'middle' route of my normal dog walks up the hill from the house, 350m asl or thereabouts. Still plenty of crunchy, refrozen snow along the track, icy in places. It was quite dull and misty.

0.7C here, calm and very grey. Just been outside and I can't tell if it's snowing very lightly, raining very lightly, or just a touch of mist in the air. Last night's dusting still lying, but will it be added to before it gets washed away? Forecasts suggest straight to rain as warming up before front gets here.

A rather unremarkable couple of days here Thu and Fri, hence no comments from me. There was still quite a bit of snow at the top of the hill on Thu when I walked the dog, but icy where it'd been compacted and soggy where it hadn't been. Avoided going anywhere near it today, opting to walk along a just slightly icy quiet road instead. Got a surprise 10mins ago when I threw the dog out for the last time before bed, there's a slight covering of snow lying that wasn't there ealier. Must have caught an isolated shower as nothing was forecast. Temperature has been sat around 2C most of the day I suppose, currently 0.7C Wife got to her parents safely on Thu but said the drive was far too wet and windy to be enjoyable. We're meeting up again at my folks in the central belt on Hogmanay, guess what day we were planning on coming back north again from the latest GFS forecast....

It's been 'stuck' on that picture from early afternoon yesterday, currently still timestamped 27th 13:22 on website. I'm sure the ones from the ski centre are outdated too, as are most for Glenshee. Likely connectivity or power issues. We'll yesterday's snow turned back to rainin the afternoon and there's little evidence left of it around the house this morning. Wife left earlier for the trip to NW England. Glad she postponed it, and well done to those who managed to make journeys yesterday through that weather. Still stunned that it wasn't an Amber warning for at least some of the country.

I take that back, beginning to stick to the grass and driveway now. Out of interest MetO forecast for now says 2C and rain, XC Weather says 0C and snow, Yr.No 1C and a sleety mix. Weather station up the road says 0.5C and window says snow.

Can't see out of any of the front windows now. Proper snow now but struggling to settle. So what do you do when your off work and weather is like this... pot of turkey broth is on the go, along with fresh bread.