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Tamara

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Status Updates posted by Tamara

  1. Sending this here, so as not to clog up the MOD thread further but still available to read for anyone who might be interested. The lag pertains to the timeline period of the effects of the MJO wave and is reflected by an increase in angular momentum tendency which responds in real time to the progression and amplitude of the convection wave . Its possible to have a rapid rise in tendency within a total windflow budget in the atmospheric circulation which has a relatively low total angular momentum base. Hence there is something of an atmospheric disconnect to the ocean base state

    The plots may be concurrent but they are two separate measures of what is happening in the atmosphere.

    Its typical to have wax and wane periods in ENSO phases, and tropical convection is the engine for changes in atmospheric angular momentum tendency through torque mechanisms that propagate from the tropics to the extra tropics and, sometimes poleward to affect the stratospheric profile (if the extra tropical MT is strong enough). The lag times of frictional >mountain torques can account for the wavelength of life of the total process - this can be up to 21 days or more.

     


     

     

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  2. Lots of children/young people at that concert are going to need a lot of support as the reality of last nights dreadful atrocities sink in. Hearts go out to the families of those who had their lives taken away so needlessly in this mindless act of murder.

    1. Show previous comments  2 more
    2. Tamara

      Tamara

       

      Indeed, there isn't any parent who will ever get over something like that Daniel.   How does the very best intelligence and security expertise deal with random brain-duped and twisted suicide bombers? Its very much a hindsight thing where the past history of these people show unstable and/or fanatical traits - but only after they have taken their own lives in the name of the crudest and most sadistic of terrorism and the worst of damage has been done.. How does one anticipate such extreme behaviour and pick out such an isolated individual from society before they have acted and its too late? 

    3. Woollymummy

      Woollymummy

      It is sickening and so sad. I don't know how people can ever prevent such madness.

    4. Tamara

      Tamara

       

      Two girls talking so bravely just now who were there last night and saw some dreadful things after the explosion. I think of all the events I went to when I was their age and never gave a thought that anything like this would happen. Simply because they didn't. What the hell has gone wrong...

  3.  

    @geoffw  Long range NWP to be watched closely for trend through second half of May in tropical convection and associated response in extra tropics for direction of travel in both atmospheric angular momentum tendency and global total atmospheric angular momentum. Steady eastward progress and increased amplitude of MJO through the Indian Ocean towards Maritimes and Western Europe engaging positive frictional and mountain torques will add swathes of westerly wind inertia to the atmosphere and should pave the way for a downstream rossby wave pattern response that favours an Atlantic trough and West European Branstrator ridges into the turn of the new month and the start summer. 

    A potentially sustained warm pattern as it can be taken as continued willingness of the atmospheric circulation to embrace the warming trend in the Pacific and a move towards a weak El Nino though the summer and into the autumn.

    Continued negative tanking of the SOI is a good broadscale atmospheric indicator that this process is well supported, as it indicates increased cloudiness close to the dateline in the Pacific and willingness for convection spikes over warming SST's to sustain westerly global wind flows - and support downstream ridge amplification across Europe.

    Alternatively any faltering of tropical and extra tropical signals will signify unwillingness of atmosphere to couple with ocean signal, restricting uptick in atmospheric angular momentum and result in a more Nina-ish global pattern with anomalous ridges in both Pacific and Atlantic with downstream trough over UK and Scandinavia. A cool and rather unsettled pattern.

    Keep checking the Global Wind Oscillation for progress. This is a key measure of total global wind-flows through the tropics and extra tropics and will help anticipate NWP evolution.

  4. Very sensible METO update today

  5. A very well set out forecast with sensibly weighted probablilies attached. Good luck to chiono and Lorenzo

    1. Mokidugway

      Mokidugway

      I use the same philosophy on a 2 grand bet on the horses :0..

    2. gottolovethisweather

      gottolovethisweather

      only 2 grand at a time?

    3. Mokidugway

      Mokidugway

      Yep, had to cut back since I sort of retired ..

  6. Time to fill the kitchen with the aroma of freshly baked buttermilk scones

    1. Mokidugway

      Mokidugway

      Can't beat a bit of home baking :)..

    2. knocker

      knocker

      And Cornish cream of course.

  7. Halogen street lights replaced today on my road. Perfect brilliant white to show the smallest flake. They know that the lamp post season will soon be arriving ;)

    1. Show previous comments  9 more
    2. Lettucing Gutted

      Lettucing Gutted

      lets hope it's way better than the last 2 "winters".

    3. Beverley Lass

      Beverley Lass

      In my county we're changing to L.E.D. street lighting. Wonder if that's unusual then.

    4. Dorsetbred

      Dorsetbred

      waiting for ours over the next 12months

  8. Summer weather perspective :)

  9. Football without ego and histrionics. Englands girls of course! ;)

    1. cheeky_monkey

      cheeky_monkey

      but with horrendous goal keepers..well done though to the girls.

    2. Daniel*

      Daniel*

      cant help having a short stature?

  10. Some things never change, regardless of the time of year...

    1. Show previous comments  3 more
    2. Reefseeker

      Reefseeker

      You know I always look out for your posts Tamara, always keep them up:)

    3. ANYWEATHER

      ANYWEATHER

      Yes,The clear sky is almost always blue!

    4. Tamara

      Tamara

      Thanks folks - there are plenty of others with lots to offer too :)

  11. A small lunchtime storm today with half the sky being blue

  12. Storms means shopping

    1. Show previous comments  1 more
    2. Dancerwithwings

      Dancerwithwings

      Shopping!!! lightning fast me.

    3. cheese

      cheese

      Sorry Tamara, I know you don't like storms. :-(

    4. Tamara

      Tamara

      I'm going to take pics of the clouds though !! :D

  13. Its welcoming to have Paul Shermans input on the SE regional thread. These convection related synoptics suit his experience even though they are not directly storm related

    1. Show previous comments  1 more
    2. Tamara

      Tamara

      Yes exactly Paul. I mentioned you because you don't post in there that often. Nick F always provides great information as well as many others of course. The last times I saw Thundersnow was in 2010 despite a few streamer events since then Alas won't be expecting it tomorrow though! Away from home at the moment so we are intending to go on a snow chase tomorrow to Capel-le-Ferne which is not far away. Hopefully that elevation will help further with seeing a covering! ;)

    3. chrisbell-nottheweatherman

      chrisbell-nottheweatherman

      Must be the best regional forum on the site!

    4. Tamara

      Tamara

      A few sferics close to De Haan on the Belgian coast. A thundery wintry mix. Closest we will get to the real thing this time. Still, at least all the marginality is removed during tomorrow before it all fades away aferwards

  14. Light snow dusting. Looking forward to heavier snow showers by late Tuesday and especially Wednesday :)

    1. Show previous comments  6 more
    2. Tamara

      Tamara

      Thanks Eugene - fingers crossed!

    3. SE Blizzards

      SE Blizzards

      Yeyy! Glad you've had some snow Tamara :) Fingers crossed for next week when the winds turn more NE'ly.

    4. Tamara

      Tamara

      Yes - you too! :)

  15. Happiness!! Snow showers have provided a light covering - the winter drought is at least broken

    1. Show previous comments  3 more
    2. lassie23

      lassie23

      had mine, blinked and missed it.:-(

    3. Mokidugway

      Mokidugway

      Proged for snow though I don't think it will happen !!.

    4. Reefseeker

      Reefseeker

      Excellent, so glad some people in the south-east got some flakes. Starting to lose the faith a bit and worry that this will be our second snowflake-less winter in Surbiton:(

  16. *Applause* First snowflakes of the winter seen late this evening - and first snowflakes since the snowstorm of March 2013 :)

    1. Show previous comments  1 more
    2. lassie23

      lassie23

      i want you to get snow daniel, you deserve it because you appreciate it

    3. lorenzo

      lorenzo

      Good stuff Tamara :)

    4. Dorsetbred

      Dorsetbred

      Right, who's turn isit next? Mine?

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