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Tamara

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Tamara last won the day on September 5 2018

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    Female
  • Location
    Hastings - relocating to Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences
    Warmth & sunshine = wellbeing

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  1. Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations. The macro scale wind-flow inertia pattern between the tropic and extra tropics waxes and wanes according to the "mini ENSO cycle" which accounts for high frequency tropical convection patterns equally waxing and waning - and at least temporarily, altering the low frequency walker cell circulation from time to time . In this way, so re-configurating the hemispheric synoptic pattern from the default pattern - as these
  2. A lot of analysis went into this theme over the summer, and it has been a case of being thankful to two spells where the atmosphere was co-operative and disconnected from the La Nina-esque tropical>extra tropical feedbacks which have amplified the upstream pattern and set a trough close to this vicinity.. One of those occasions, as we know, was in August, and the other one was that most wonderful welcome extension of summer during the second and third weeks of September. The previous analysis in mid September suggested that further Indian Summer prospects were predicated, and dependant
  3. Posted August 29 (edited) What of the change of month and the previous suggestions of improved warmer weather once again ? Still on cue whatever numerical operational model vicissitudes appear to indicate - albeit as per the theme of the beginning of this post, never a straightforward process at this junction of the Northern Hemisphere. As was the case in late July and early this month, the high frequency MJO signal has growing confidence to embark on another eastward progression across the topics, much as discussed in detail in previous posts. The cue to promote attempts at furth
  4. Yes indeed - very much so. Back towards making more sense, set against the direction of travel of forcing within the tropics>extra tropics 🙂 The suggestion was made last week that the progress back to fine, warm spells on a more widespread basis would not be seamless in terms of how NWP handled it - with the tendency to try to shift rossby wave amplification back upstream and push troughs south east across NW Europe. Customary modelling difficulties evident with the high frequency tropical convection wave negotiating the passage of the terrain of the Maritime Continent as it propagates
  5. The whole of this quoted extract is wholly relevant - but captured in essence within the bolded parts🙂 There remains some capping on the extent to which NWP is unanimously switching shoaling in mid stream, at this time - but EPS is most emphatically leading the way here. The persistent very strong upstream amplification as discussed in this previous post a few days back, harboured suspicions over the extrapolation of this signal. So the switches that are now starting to occur make complete sense as far as I am concerned within the context of momentum changes to come. I continue
  6. This is not true for everybody. What of the Septembers pattern for those who are still interested ? A lot of caution remains heading through this month with the upstream amplification pattern - based on the progress of another high frequency MJO signal across the tropics and an associated fresh jump in angular momentum tendency that may well bring about further curveballs with time. Whilst it looks like yet another La Nina-esque influenced autumn - and these have been numerous over the last decade overall, that doesn't mean that the atmospheric circulation does not wax and wane within
  7. So, deposit paid, and "escritura" scheduled to be signed (by a POA representative near Lisbon) during September to be the owner of new property in destination Portugal. Summer blazes on there, regardless of technical change of season☀️. Back here, as ever not so straightforward - with airmasses from polar and sub tropical origins doing their usual act of vying for supremacy at this crossroads and higher latitude to where I ultimately will reside at 39N. Current momentum budgets underpin why this neck of the woods is, at present, on the "wrong side" of an Atlantic ridge, unlike south
  8. ...And so the "worst" of the pattern switch is duly very much focussed within this last week of August and with an underwhelmingly cool introduction to the Bank Holiday. However, the renewed stranglehold of the low frequency tropical signal across Africa and the Indian Ocean, which has re-set set this unwelcome pattern wavelength, faces a further interruption as September progresses. NWP is still a bit tentative with this, but then as stated in last weeks post this is to be expected based on how strongly they congregate around such a default signal - until the flag is really waved that s
  9. The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the Indian Ocean. Cue the drop back in angular momentum in progress as this signal re-emerges c/o steeply -ve trending global torques across mountain ranges scrubbing out the recent surge of westerly inertia (the +AAM anomalies that created our downstream heat ridge) within the atmospheric circulation - - and hence the programmed re-amplified Pacific and flatter downstream pa
  10. Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms. The GWO has smashed its way through the El Nino attractor phases through into a weak amplitude Phase 5, based on the two day two consolidated lag. A reversal of the standing wave pattern between June and July and a resounding blueprint for the anomalous European and Scandinavian ridging presently in evidence. With that switch in mind, NWP has been suggesting, up to now, a
  11. Its hard to not write extensively about this because I am very much inclined to agree with you.. So that is what I will have to do. Advice would be to bypass this post, those who participate and/or read this thread and who are not interested in detailed perspective analysis that comes from a diagnostic and proactive point of view, rather than reactive to NWP operational.. Assessing wind-flow inertia, and how it influences angular momentum tendency, across the hemisphere is very useful guide as to jet stream pattern behaviour when used objectively and with no preconceived agendas. H
  12. You are welcome 🙂 Subtle changes often happen within a given ocean>atmosphere paradigm which, as we are currently seeing, can have quite dramatic changes to the macro scale pattern for a time - and on this occasion has certainly changed fortunes for this part of NW Europe. It is simply the superimposition of high frequency MJO forcing over the "default" (long term) standing wave across Africa and the Indian ocean. This, rather any shift within the long term standing wave feedback Later in August the tropical signal will be re-coupled, that is, meaning that the underlying strength
  13. @Tamara I wonder if you might answer a couple of questions I have about this. - You note the inevitability of the low frequency tropical signal returning (which you have previously described as "default") and promoting upstream amplification etc. - You also later refer to the default pattern and seasonal wavelength changes in August. I wonder if you could flesh this out a little more. Firstly I'm interested in what you mean by the default pattern. Do you mean on a global basis, or are you specifically referring to default patterns for a UK summer, because there seems to be an im
  14. Self evidently this is yet more nonsense excessive hyperbole. Ultimately, and it seems ridiculous to have to keep mentioning it on the basis of the weather to come in the days ahead for many - the low frequency tropical signal will return and that implies upstream amplification also returning with the effect of the downstream ridge re-configuring westwards at the same time as pressure falls across NW Europe. But that emphatically ignores several days (at least) of some highly interesting and potentially exciting weather variety - with a distinctly sub tropical theme developing. The
  15. It gets a bit of a "boys own" scrum on here. Computer models being assessed like they are competing engines being road tested for performance. Temperatures being frantically compared from one computer model to another as if there is a prize for the winning number cruncher. l take the usual precaution of looking at numerical models before casting any glance over the posting on here, and, being totally detached by the highest temperature analysis and contest, remain quite satisfied with the outlook. That probably makes me the "outlier" in MOD thread parlance. As stated yesterday, pro
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