[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

...but the ECM is worse than last night.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Azores high is really trying it's hardest for link to Greenland .

[Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards]

I think they'll be some upgrades in the next few days and I'd expect the 240hr chart to be shown a few days earlier 

[Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards]

You never know, all that incredibly cold air in the arctic that has been bottled up for so long could now give us a really severe spell. The cold that was released into North America certainly was!

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014]

I may be wrong but doesn't the warming need to be north or northwest of us to have an effect?

[Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards]

Just remember in 1947 a strong southerly airflow very quickly turned into an easterly within a few short days. I doubt the models then predicted that! We need northern Europe as cold as possible first so tbh I couldn't care less that the easterly failed for next week as it would have been a let down at this stage anyway! 

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

Just been looking through the archives for 1947 around 20th Jan and the set-up is very very similar. Just need lows to back west and to dig more SE into Iberia and heights to strengthen over Greenland. Hopefully we will see that on future runs.The key for this evening is that anything is possible from that moment. 

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

interested to see the last chart of ECM - Atlantic HP wants to connect to Greenland at 192

Sorry, 216h

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

mmmmm just need the high to stretch into Greenland stronger, then perfection

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

ECM is turning into a classic tbh

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

It does always seem to be that when North America is freezing especially the NE that we are mild. 

 

I've been looking at various monthly forecasts in the US on Accuweather and it seems the brutal cold is retreating back towards the usual places in Canada in about 7 days time with temperatures returning to more average values across the US. 

 

I'd expect the models to start showing a much colder outlook for Europe in general now over the course of this week and as shown in the US any cold we do get this year in Europe could be brutal.

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

If ECM plays out like the 12z then the Weatheronline forecast issued a week ago may be bang on

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20131227

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

Any experts online that could give their opinion of the 18z and whether there have been any subtle moves towards ECM?

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Any sign of northern blocking on any models today?

No

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

Does Joe B have his own secret model and knows something we don't or just a crystal ball? Lol

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

I'm here in Budapest, Austria and Prague till next Sunday so hopefully I'll be guaranteed some snow somewhere either here or the UK.

[South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13]

Was very gusty here on the Wharf late this afternoon but now just a gentle breeze and the temp has fallen quite a bit too!

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.]

Would be nice to see some more snow before the end of the winter as this could be the last I see of it here before moving to Ontario, Canada at the end of this year.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.]

I go to Latvia on the 24th so this cold spell is guaranteed as I'll miss it!

[London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards]

5cm here already in the last 2 hrs

Was only supposed to get 2cm.

Think they got it a bit wrong!!

[South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 22/01/13 00z------------->]

Moderate snow in Basingstoke. Dry until now.

[South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 20/01/13 10z------------->]

What are your thoughts Ian for Tues? Potential to be anything like the Jan 2010 event?

[South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 20/01/13 10z------------->]

Anyone thinking Tues event could be more widespread and intense across sw and cse than the forecasts have predicted. Its only 42 he's away and no warnings

[South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 20/01/13 10z------------->]

The NAE on Tues looks like a repeat of January 2010 for Hampshire. A constant snow stream heading north from the channel into CSE. Its either going to weaken tomorrow, move west or south but if it stays as per the NAE on the projected path then there could be some large totals from this. The FAX shows the disturbance in the channel too. Could start to become an event by this time tomorrow in the forecasts!

The NAE on Tues looks like a repeat of January 2010 for Hampshire. A constant snow stream heading north from the channel into CSE. Its either going to weaken tomorrow, move west or south but if it stays as per the NAE on the projected path then there could be some large totals from this. The FAX shows the disturbance in the channel too. Could start to become an event by this time tomorrow in the forecasts!

I feel this is probably our last chance though for this cold spell.

[South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 20/01/13 10z------------->]

Both

Both

I'm in the Central North Hampshire snow desert! . Would this snow cover here too?