Davey80

...but the ECM is worse than last night.

Azores high is really trying it's hardest for link to Greenland .

I think they'll be some upgrades in the next few days and I'd expect the 240hr chart to be shown a few days earlier

You never know, all that incredibly cold air in the arctic that has been bottled up for so long could now give us a really severe spell. The cold that was released into North America certainly was!

I may be wrong but doesn't the warming need to be north or northwest of us to have an effect?

Just remember in 1947 a strong southerly airflow very quickly turned into an easterly within a few short days. I doubt the models then predicted that! We need northern Europe as cold as possible first so tbh I couldn't care less that the easterly failed for next week as it would have been a let down at this stage anyway!

Just been looking through the archives for 1947 around 20th Jan and the set-up is very very similar. Just need lows to back west and to dig more SE into Iberia and heights to strengthen over Greenland. Hopefully we will see that on future runs.The key for this evening is that anything is possible from that moment.

interested to see the last chart of ECM - Atlantic HP wants to connect to Greenland at 192 Sorry, 216h

mmmmm just need the high to stretch into Greenland stronger, then perfection

ECM is turning into a classic tbh

It does always seem to be that when North America is freezing especially the NE that we are mild. I've been looking at various monthly forecasts in the US on Accuweather and it seems the brutal cold is retreating back towards the usual places in Canada in about 7 days time with temperatures returning to more average values across the US. I'd expect the models to start showing a much colder outlook for Europe in general now over the course of this week and as shown in the US any cold we do get this year in Europe could be brutal.

If ECM plays out like the 12z then the Weatheronline forecast issued a week ago may be bang on http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20131227

Any experts online that could give their opinion of the 18z and whether there have been any subtle moves towards ECM?

No

Does Joe B have his own secret model and knows something we don't or just a crystal ball? Lol