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TheBigFreeze

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Posts posted by TheBigFreeze

  1. 13 hours ago, Weathervane said:

    I live a few miles south of Cromer. I moved here last winter as a great place to live, but also hoping for some cold and snow. Use to live in the Chiltern hills where we always had a day or two of lying snow even in the mildest of winters. Here in two winters seen lying snow once for 12 hours overnight and the odd sleety mix.

    Now,  I know these two winters have been dire, but I am convinced there are very few situations that deliver snow to coastal locations in East Anglia. The first is a January 1987 with very low uppers and an easterly off the near continent. The charts for 12th January show it snowing at Coltishall at -9c. What I would give for that again.

    The second, which is probably a flight of fancy, is for a polar low to put down anchor in the Wash for a few hours and deliver a period of snow with westerly winds and so not mixed out by the warmer North Sea.

    Not pinning any great hopes on  either next week. Certainly not snow on the beach at Cromer which I think will have to wait for next year.:)

     

     

     

     

     

     

    I would have to agree with you there, I would imagine there being a lot of snow in the air doesn't help matters. But I am wondering if anyone can shed any light on the Norfolk weather triangle? It seems that whatever the weather type it splits as it nears the point of the triangle, albeit rain, snow, storms etc...countless times I have tracked weather on the radar, and it is on a direct path for my location until it reaches around the point of the triangle, where it splits. I don't know of any geographical features that can cause this, its very strange, and I am not talking about the odd occassion, it happens frequently. Even in Dec 2010 we really didn't see anywhere near the worst of it, where as friends not much outside of the triangle had it pretty bad. Annoying at best, consider I love weather watching and storm photography :(

    Norfolk Triangle.jpg

    • Like 1
  2. 17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I'd be interested to see if the AROME is any good here because its the first model that I've seen develop anything wintry ahead of the front. The slower the front moves through the better for locations currently behind the front as that would give more time for the undercut. At the moment any zero dew points still seem to be over Ireland or the far east/se.

    Its a shame the surface flow ahead isn't from the se because dew points in ne France are generally between -2 and -4c.

    On a separate note I can't find any proper support for the UKMO T144hrs solution in the GEFS. If the ECM was to back that solution then it would really lower confidence in what the GEFS is showing in terms of evolution going forward. The end point might still be similar in terms of low pressure diving se but the middle part might look different.

    Nick, I am bang in the middle of East Anglia, I shall now be radar watching and curtain twitching, and will post as it happens lol. Looking at the models the most I  was hoping to wake up to was some slush on the windscreen. I still think we will have a back loaded winter of the likes of 2013.

    • Like 1
  3. 1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

    Colder, as in relative to milder episodes (today becoming a case in point), with phases likely to fall slightly below average. As previously discussed, 'colder' should not be translated as 'very cold': quite different terminology! The 00z EC-ENS show the general shift towards chillier weather well (Reading shown, v model climatology).

    Screenshot_2016-01-31-08-41-44-1.png

    Thank you for the reply Ian, I wasn't taking the comments as anything other than, colder than what we are currently experiencing, I was more intrigued by the word "longer" in the statement "a little colder for a little longer". Was the reference hinting at a possible pattern change that some of the meto models we are not privy to suggesting/showing [I'm not expecting anyone, yourself included to nail their colours to the mast] or was it in reference to increased PM shots as the lows barrel away to our NE allowing, however briefly, but more frequently the cold air to sink south?

     

    Thanks Simon

  4. I very rarely post as I am still in the very early learning stages which is being hugely helped by some great posters on here, and for that I thank you.

    If I'm looking at things correctly, at the moment the jet is a little further south than normal and as Henry passes away to our NE it will allow colder air to, albeit briefly, sink South across the country before the jet repositions and another Atlantic low is upon us. Looking ahead I see some "potential optimism" from the meto for something colder for longer as we move into the 2nd week of Feb.  I am a little confused as where do they see this cold potential coming from? As already stated, if the Eastern USA goes into the freezer we as a result will usually get ambushed by deep Atlantic dart board lows  targeted at us as a result of cyclogenesis, thus preventing any chances of heights rising in the Atlantic to for some kind of block? Is "usually" the key word in that sentence, or is it depending on the depth and track of the lows, which will effect the chances of a block forming? Or do they see the cold potential coming from elsewhere?

     

    Sorry for so many what are probably really basic questions, but I am a total novice and even what I have written might be totally wrong, but you have to start somewhere I guess.

     

    Thanks :)

    • Like 4
  5. The weather will do what it will do but dartboard lows have been downgraded, as per usual. So I wouldn't be forecasting acopalypse personally.

     

    Hi Downpour,

     

    Yes it is nice to see the low slightly downgrading as normal, but as you and I know, this can change from run to run, and they don't always downgrade. I agree in that it would be wrong to forecast the apocalypse with so much uncertainty, but given the scenario I alluded to is not outside a realistic timeframe and most definitely a possible outcome, I would rather have people aware and more likely to pay attention to what is happening than to find out last minute once everything is firmed up.

     

    It looks as though GFS is keeping it a deep low although tracking more East than SE, this would still produce a storm surge down the North sea wouldn't it?

    gfs-0-108xsz2_mini.png

    • Like 1
  6. Hi TBF

     

    Your observations are all valid in my humble opinion.

    re track of low and amount of mixing etc, well that is the million dollar question but the general idea that snow to the North and west of the low as it sinks is correct as the warm sector is pushed South ahead and colder uppers filter back in behind on an Easterly flow.

     

    You are right about the track the UKMO currently shows, give or take, and yes a storm surge would definitely be a concern.

    I think we can expect to hear more about that from Ian Ferguson if things continue along these lines a bit nearer the time.

     

    Certainly a very interesting period of weather coming up one way or another.

     

    Hi Mucka, RJBW, John Holmes

     

    Thank you for replying to my post. I would have thought the path of this low would now be within the realistic timeframe for having a good handle on its likely track? When do you think the depth and track will be considered to be nailed on so that appropriate warnings [if needed] can be given? I understand that the models have been really flip flopping around lately and it was really good to see the BBC showing that there are two possible outcomes for the weekend, but given that one of them, should it pan out would likely see a strong storm surge push down the North sea in conjunction with some very big tides, might it not be an idea for some kind of warning [even if nothing comes of it] to be made? or at what point would they start to issue warnings? This would give people in those flood risk zones who might be travelling away for xmas the option to prepare for the worst. I know I would rather take some kind of preventative / damage limitation measures before going away and it being a false alarm, than to not have that option and come home to my house and belongings damaged and ruined by floods I knew nothing about until it was too late? I have been urging people to pay close attention to the weekends weather r.e the potential risk to flooding, and the majority of responses are quite lackadaisical. Fingers crossed in relation to a surge, the low will weaken or track differently.

     

    storm2014_zps30e9752e.jpg

     

    The reason for my concern is that during and leading up to last Decembers surge people were taking the eventual warnings with a pinch of salt probably due to having several flood warnings every year and nothing ever coming of them for god knows how many years. During the mornings high tide I was at the coast taking photographs as it was close to breaching and got talking to two wet behind the ears lads from the environment agency who were saying they were going to downgrade the flood alerts for the night time high tide!! I asked them if they were they joking as the gale force onshore wind was going to be holding that tide in preventing it from fully going out and with the winds not set to drop and the evening high tide no smaller it was going to breach 100% and they completely dismissed what I and some of the flood wardens were saying!! I knew it was going to flood and that sandbags would be needed and that most other people wouldn't realise until it was too late ,which is why myself and a load of friends went and bagged up sandbags for the elderly. People / families were walking up to river wall to look at the "higher than normal tide" hand in hand laughing and joking, then seeing it, realising, and literally started running back to put sandbags into their car. 

     

    p.s I am trying to find and view the charts from last years surge to draw comparisons, how / where do I do this? thanks 

    • Like 5
  7. Hi there, 

     

    Been watching the forum for a couple of years now and am only just starting to get a bit of an idea [i think / hope] with regards to some of the models, so please be kind! lol

     

    Am I right in thinking that the UKMO has the low running South/South East down the North Sea at 96-120 hours with the centre staying closer to the UK, although not as deep as GFS, which has the centre track more in the direction of Holland, and as the low sinks it is replacing warmer air with the 850 uppers only just reading -4/-6 ahead of the low any snow would be more likely to the North of the system where there has been more prolonged colder air, resulting in a wet/sleety scenario for most as opposed to a white one, or would the potential Easterlies [depending on the track of the low] bring in enough cold air to make it a snow event ? 

     

    Also, and for me and much more of a concern, wouldn't either of those tracks the low takes produce a storm surge down the North Sea. which is a little concerning at this would also coincide with a large tide, which could prove devastating for the East Anglian coastline which is very close to me and where I have family and friends who have not long recovered from last years surge?

     

    Apologies if I am way off of the mark, but am very new to looking at weather models, and please correct me if i am wrong.

    • Like 4
  8. Interesting to note that after a week or so of milder, wetter weather both the CFS monthly and 9 monthly are very keen to introduce some severe wintry episodes via stronger Greenland-Scandi blocking post the 300 hr mark.

    Really quite a signal for strong northern blocking and southerly tracking lows on the anomaly charts I've just looked at.

    are these more reliable in the time frame you are talking about or is it still to be considered FI??

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