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Neiller22

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    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    45 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Mar 2019 to Wednesday 20 Mar 2019:

    Into early March there are signals for Atlantic fronts to cross the whole of the UK, bringing a mixture of wet and windy weather to many parts, but also intermittent drier spells. Snow remains possible over higher ground in the north. There are weaker signals for snow to lower levels elsewhere should a cold easterly develop; this remains a small possibility. However, milder conditions remain more likely, with occasional overnight frosts.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

    . Are they going to say there could be an easterly all the way through summer months as well. They may as well as they have been saying this since December. Utterly comical. 

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Neiller22

    14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I don't expect these forecasts to be 100% correct, not even 70 or 80% correct, but kind of point us in a direction of travel, I certainly don't expect them to be soooo monumentally  wrong though, especially at a 2 to 3 week timeframe. I mean, this forecast compared to the actual outcome points to a complete an utter failure of whatever prediction methods they use.

    Back to the drawing board.

    Well whatever they are using it ain’t to good but yes, their accuracy should be better than what was  currently on offer this year. 

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

    With temperatures today touching 16 degrees above freezing, just a reminder of what the Meto long ranger was on the 26th January------>>>

    ----------------------------------------------------------

    Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

    Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

    -----------------------------------------------------------

    Horrendously wrong.

    Spot on. I certainly won’t pay any attention to the meto long ranger or background signals next year. Been woeful 

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Good Post drl, and I agree with most of what your saying, what I can't fathom is some on here who are claiming those looking for  cold to devolop, as the thread suggests are indeed phantasists, even the met mention the possibility of blocking and colder with snow risks devoloping later this month, so they to must be seeing something that is not there.

    Met office have being seeing things since mid December! 

    • Like 2

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, Don said:

    I don’t think they have been crap.  It’s been a very complex winter regarding background signals and most forecasters have struggled recently.

    They have been abysmal and there is no other way to describe it. Utterly pointless waste of time even putting them to print

    • Like 1

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Yep terrible update but to be fair they have been pretty rubbish these forecasts since December. So it could still change ??. Let’s just face facts we can forecast up to 5/7 days after that it’s anyones guess . It’s ok when your in a normal west to east set up but anything other than that the models and forecasters struggle . 

    Spot on. Just said the same about an hr ago in 30 day outlook page. Couldn’t agree more c

    • Like 1

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Why don’t they just say “sometime within the next ten years there may be an easterly”! Honestly there is no point in these forecasts as they change with the wind. I’m afraid to say it but I think this winter is petering out to a whimper. Note to all in future is to ignore background signals until there is a greater understanding of it which could take years. No more than 7 days for me from now on. 

    • Like 2

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Neiller22

    Sorry their LRF has been very poor. No better than the good old folk who read the models in here. People have been saying in here all week that they cannot see were they are getting this forecast as the models are not really showing it, however they must have better info than us clearly etc etc etc etc. But alas they have now backtracked so for me their long range has been shocking. 

    • Like 3

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Neiller22

    4 minutes ago, Baltic Regions said:

    Completely agree with this sensible statement. This is not how you phrased it though.

    And……...

    These comments are just inflammatory. Say something like the first quote. Its less defamatory to the hard working professionals who do their job to the best of their abilities.

     

    This was two days ago!! Of note is the way you phrase things so no matter what happens you can either enjoy the high along with everyone or state how right you were in predicting the downgrade. You're quids in. This is not the only example.

     

    A measured response to your lambasting of the SSW (where you provide no data to back it). Try it. It earns respect and helps the conversation to develop.

     

    And just over the halfway mark? There are loads of worse winters in the past. Including ones were there has been no snow at all. 

     

    Honestly Neiller, go and read this thread from page one. While some of your comments are quite positive you are a bit of a mood hoover. I have been part of this forum since the regional communities were established. Even Frosty didn't rip my knittin any where near as much as you do. Im not the only one who appears frustrated by you. Your negativity and unsubstantiated drivel has ruined this group for me. I find little pleasure in here anymore because its just the Neiller show interspersed with the respectable comments from knowledgeable members I and im certain, we all want to hear from. 

    I appreciate this cant be pleasant to read and Im more than annoyed at myself for letting this get to me so much. I apologise in advance for any offence that no doubt will be taken. I hope you can read this in the manner it is intended and take some points on board.

    Tomorrow is my 14th Anniversary of being in this community but due to how things have been lately I no longer feel able to be part of this community and so I will leave the forum and delete my profile. I will of course leave the profile up until midnight as I have no doubt you will want to come back at me. You are of course entitled to your views and you do like to air them.

    Please think about how you handle yourself in this room and come across to others. I always took pride in here that we remained level headed regardless of what the output provided and often joked about the dummies being spat out of the pram. Your input is moving us down the same road. 

     

    Too much for me. Better things to do with my time than wade through such drivel to find the nuggets of good knowledge.

     

    Cheers folks but its Adios from me.

     

    Can’t even be bothered to comment on this post. Clearly just ignore my posts. Hit the ignore button. Ta.

    And on that note after thinking over I will continue to read the thread but will no longer post. As Baltic is speaking for everybody as he states and I’m annoying others etc I am happy to do that. Hope u all get the snow crave and hope the rest of the winter is good for you all. Njoy the snow and hopefully the thread will now be more enjoyable for you going forward. Take care all 

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Neiller22

    58 minutes ago, Baltic Regions said:

    On re-reading your message Neiller I get what you're trying to say. 

    At first glance it looks like you are saying 'they (people) are a waste of time'. 

    I assume for clarity sake you mean the snow depth charts? 

     

     

    A few days ago people in here were calling winter over and using over very descriptive terms to describe this season. Its certainly not been cold so far this winter but we have seen this many times before and will likely see it more prevalent as we see climate change unfold. Our normal winters are not snowmagedons  by any use of the imagination.

     

    A little prespective and focus will help to keep the bipolar views more realistic and help the lows to be less of a bump. We can all ride the highs when they come.

     

    Also not liking when MetOffice staff who are professionals at what they do and have access to better models and data than we do get slagged off here for their failure to predict things or constantly changing outlooks, particularly when those who make these statements are amateurs. Knowledgeable amateurs for sure but amateurs nonetheless.

     

    P.S. Mountain Shadow: Keep your posts coming my friend. I learn more from the likes of yourself and others here. I'm no expert in weather just an interest. The pitch and level of the posts in this room in general are very educational.

     

    Of course I’m talking about the snow chart maps. Why would I call people a  “waste of time” so just making that point clear before you try and twist my comment for some reason. Secondly I am perfectly entitled to make the the comment that their outlook constantly changes because “ it does”, but that again is in by no means me slagging them off for their profession or for the hard job they do.  I’m merely  pointing out that even professionals struggle to forecast the weather in our micro climate of an island. Apart from that I agree with everything else you said which is basically ur last paragraph. Peace to all

     

     

     

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Neiller22

    24 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    If we do get snow early next week, it should stick around as we start to get colder and colder but mainly dry at this stage.

    I think nearer the time that mainly dry will change especially for east coast if there is an easterly. 

    However do not look at the snow total maps as u will get depressed. Sadly our little island gets very little indeed and half the island gets nothing compared to what they get over the Irish Sea. They would be snowed in! Thankfully they are a waste of time. 

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, ronan said:

    I reckon some of you are jumping the gun regarding this. Its not nailed yet. Anything can happen in these setups. In my opinion I think we will all be in the freezer soon. Have a feeling at some stage we will be looking at the Atlantic for our snow! (SLIDERSSSSSS) Lets see what the next few runs bring. Don't forget that this morning dummies were being spat out because there was no Easterly!!

    Yep I think it could easily slip back in our favour. There will def be more ups and downs 

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Neiller22

    8 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

     An easterly first after a brief PM... That just doesn't cut the mustard. Good but not good enough anymore the bar has heightened these last few days . Fingers crossed we get a Greenie high first that will at wish move to Scandinavia or the other way around . 

     

     

    Very Imby ofcourse but IMBY would sum up the model thread at mo.

    Aye not great for the NW of our wee county but looking quite good indeed for the east of it. As you it’s all going to be IMBY I’m afraid. Great for some crap for others. 

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