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Weather Monkey

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    West London
  • Weather Preferences
    Winter : Cold, snow, frost, fog. Summer : Sunny N wind + clear skies

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  1. Wake them up at your peril! I was woken for snow at the same age and never went back to sleep l as I was to busy looking out the curtains every few minutes until I was let out to play in it. Several decades later I still do the same
  2. In model watching you need to view dispassionately - with the good and the bad. Many times over the decade I've watched, it's worth holding judgement a day or two, taking the John H approach, and having patience rather than knee jerking to every run. We get downgrades and upgrades that often flip as the models seek the solution but ultimately, what will be will be. Yet in the reliable timeframes there's chances in most places, more so in the North (which is usually, but not always, the way) and beyond that considering what the strat is doing anyone saying they know is being presumptuous. I've really enjoyed @Catacol's musings/ramping and I'm also excited for the same reasons. Historic events do happen to us - who would have thought Dec 2010, Mar 2013 and Feb/Mar 2018 were going to happen? but sometimes you spot the seeds sprouting, other times it's gone by the next morning. We could have a decent spell, an historic spell/event or a squib - I've seen so many naysayers be right and horribly wrong. We seriously don't know but like most here at this time of year we live and breathe for snow and ice because we don't live in Scandinavia or Canada. Even @mushymanrob has been perked up for something out of the ordinary! What I will say is the ens for Berks are surprisingly solid showing a steady cool down until the 6th - next Weds - when the scatter builds - it may tighten up or down or scatter further. Cold periods can wax and wane - or disappear, but 7 days of steady cooling with good agreement is not bad at all and chances may pop up (or not) but we're in the game before January has even started with a great stratospheric roll of the dice about to be thrown. I'll take it! My glass is anything but empty in what hemispherically and model wise is possibly the most interesting I have seen. At least this winter isn't boring
  3. At least it does seem to be more settled in the near term. First chart Suffolk for comparison then a snapshot down the spine; Berkshire, Leicestershire and Perth and Kinross. Very much as John said based on the 500mb anomaly charts: As it's peak hurricane season all subject to change.
  4. If the cold comes in anything like the runs are showing, I wouldn't worry about the detail as many a feature will pop up at short notice. Always a lottery where and when but fun to see churn out nonetheless. Long may it continue. Get that cold in!
  5. Although there have been changes, that wasn't a bad forecast from 3 weeks out.
  6. I'm just here for the weather...and I love it...mostly. Always enjoy an extreme as long as no one gets hurt.

    1. carinthian


      hI wm ,same here. I love snow and warm summer evenings. That's why I moved to Austria over 10 years ago but met my Austrian wife many years before ! Thanks for following.


    2. Weather Monkey

      Weather Monkey

      You're welcome. Always enjoy your updates all year. 

  7. Purga you showed a chart from +T196 then +T240? From what I see the potential (and it is just that) was +T96/120. Bit misleading then to show much later FI charts? Are we are talking about a transitory event on Tue/Weds 4/5 days away or 8-10 days? As I see the spreads fairly aligned until the ~10th this is (current) deep FI you are using to compare? What period do you mean?
  8. Deep breath then back to lurking and enjoying a very informative thread again this year :-) Overall pattern is promising rather than conclusive - dice in hand ready to roll - so let's just let it play out and enjoy whatever happens. Even if the UK misses out it will be instructive and fascinating for wherever in the Northern Hemisphere that benefits. I'm with the view a broad concensus of runs should be taken rather than hanging onto every run. Don't need the inter run drama of the mod thread here...please...this place is light relief by comparison ;-)
  9. Some lovely output, not unexpected, but I was reading this last week when things looked bright. From TWS (6th Jan 2013) "The GFS is all over the place at the moment, so I don't think too much should be read into it at this stage, but I retain a view that snow lovers should not get too excited, particularly as far as snowy easterlies or north-easterlies are concerned, unless they appear inside T+72." http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75464-winter-model-discussion-cold-hunting-12z-060113/page-6#entry2466592
  10. Agree. When you watch weather the extremes draw you. It does not mean as some seem to imply in response to you that we hope anyone is hurt but the raw power of mother nature is something to behold. Mark Vogan fesses his fascination started with the 87 storm (mine was an 83 snowstorm), which I recall well for putting the tree in my garden at 45 degrees (next doors tree grew at 22 deg after) and the multiple cars whacked I saw to the way to school (a half day). It does not mean we want anyone hurt nor facing big bills from damage (last years mild storms took out my fence, 06 another) but we do not live in benign climate. These storms are not that unusual despite the decade long gaps that may occur. It is also part of the natural order removing weaker trees etc (The Great British Year on the the beeb suggested trees developed the structure they have and in part shed leaves because of autumn storms). Prepare, be safe by all means but there is nothing wrong with enjoying the weather (we can hardly change it) - those lovely heatwaves so beloved of many on the model forum (and I say this passing no judgement) are killer indoors or out. We should put it in perspective as well - it's not exactly that much of deal when compared to those who deal annually with several intense tropical systems over the otherside of the Atlantic or the Pacific (poor Japan). I lived on the equator for many years and I have yet to see anything here (North excluded) that has come close matching the intensity of a passing squall (less wind but sheer volume of rain is something else). Believe me, having experienced weather in many places globally, we British have it very easy compared to many others around the globe. As Joe Bastardi says 'Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got.' Stay safe everyone.
  11. At this time of year I'd gladly take a toppler, something more sustained is better after solstice. Frosty has pulled up a few yoyo patterns so at least some interesting changeable weather could be in the offing. Long way to go but some short sharp colder shots *potentially* there. As ever more runs needed and with the uncertainty over Monday's low a long long way to go modelwise for further reaches.
  12. Before the SSW I read on here about three SsWs. 1) Is the current continued warming (going on the red highlight by weathermaster 25 Jan 2013) a new SSW or part of the same event moderating? 2) Are any further events showing? I have seen no red areas posted in recent charts posted recently as there were before the SSW. 3) Is it unusual to have more than one SSW per season and at what point does an SSW become standard warming (looking at the average the current rise looks normal rather than sudden). 4) Chio you mentioned the NWP would respond about now. It seems to be changing but is this what you expected and is more entrophy to come as the SSW propogates down. I see the cold sopell just gone as a bonus with the real effects to come. 5) Has the record snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere made any difference to the SSW or any further events going forward (i.e. a feedback) 6) GP/Chio, you mentioned the uptick in solar activity in Dec may have offset the cold potential. Has the recent Jan uptick, now finished, made any difference in how this period has been affected? You seem to have this period of warmth nailed well but I wonder if anything has thrown a curveball (which may have the same end result but increased uncertainty). As an aside from my reading Dec was a potential bonus which never came to pass cold as it briefly was. 7) (sorry for being greedy) how does wave activity relate to solar effects - or does it? I can't see the link but I understand the effects on UV higher up - is this like bouncing a ball passing through a more/less viscous membrane or wind sheer throwing off the trajectory? The mountain torque has thrown me as I thought solar effects would be polar regions (sorry for the basic view and I understand I could be wide off the mark so hope I make some sense). Can I also say thank you for this thread. I've found it of more use than FI trends and fascinating. To think I mostly ignored the strat last year. Thank you and keep up this valuable work. Sorry when I said 3 SSWs I meant potential. No fait accomplit.
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