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Everything posted by DanDorsetUK
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Think this has to go down as one of the biggest expectation fails ever this week in fact this whole winter so far since December! Im not even finding it that cold out to be honest. Anything can happen though 5 days away! Heat, Cold, Storms, you name it! Patterns change so much in that short space of time anything after that needs to be kept at very low confidence with low expectations. The moment i see 0z Runs showing something interesting roughly 5 days out i take more notice, as a web developer myself it is clear to see there is an algorithm being used on every model run. A lesser impact algorithm for 0z to the greater risk on the 18z its clear to see its programmed that way. But you only really notice the algorithm after 5 days when it becomes FI. The moment 0z looks good for cold is when to sit up and take more notice around the day 5 mark. I might actually look more at the models this summer and see how it behaves, ive never really looked at 0z and compare 18z through summer months so it might be interesting to see how algorithms perform during Summer months. Anyway 2 more weeks of Feb to go anything possible yet!
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Nice to have the light dusting, but all the fantasy cold charts have now gone, just a steady warm up now. For me I cant wait for some spring warmth and sunshine, really struggled this winter with the gloomy days, I need some positivity back in life and nice days out walking with a nice beer in a pub garden after. Really hope we get some lovely hot weather this year so I can get out on the boat and get some much needed sun top ups followed by a massive electric storm.
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Winds just picked up quite considerably along the South now. I think that main band will grow to the east of it also. I'm pretty sure it will reach down here just unsure how intense it will be by the time it gets here. Could actually still pick up yet given its only just gone 1pm and sun strength involved.
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Looking at radar development's I'd say there are quite a few in with a shout. Intensity is most definitely increasing even south east of the main flow which will brings the likes of eastern and Southern Dorset and IOW in with more of a chance of at least seeing some more flakes than seen so far. Need closely watching as intensity was forecast to pick up even more this evening.