Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

Nick i have said this time and time again.That Russian High is absolutely awful news for UK cold.Even when it does retrogress far enough west to benefit the UK it very rarely sticks around long enough to bring long term cold.Im aware its the favoured option for the South East for obvious reasons but if it doesnt get far enough west its disasterous and nearly always ends up eating away large chunks of winter with the UK stuck in no mans land at the mercy of the slow moving Atlantic systems .FWIW I ALWAYS watch for the emergence of a russian anticyclone as a MAJOR negative as we approach the winter months.Give me a strong Greenland high any day of the week.The pattern for the next 10 days MINIMUM is set and its a wet one. Im going to stick with my theory of a very cold spring again this year with masses of blocking across Greenland as we head into mid march/April,it doesnt cut the mustard for me though and im sure many others. Thats my last post for the most vile winter i have EVER known,and im 40! No idea what summer will bring this year but my god we are long overdue some drier weather at some point... Good luck to all the NW members for the rest of the year we'll all be back in November,hopefully the weather gods will not put us through ANYTHING like what we have endured this time round,for a long time...

Yes if you keep throwing a dart at the board you will eventually hit the bull zzzz

I'm afraid I'm joining the growing list of ship jumpers.if I were to describe what I think of our weather since Nov I think I would break the swear. Filter. What a shame

Just watched the beeb week ahead and to say im underwheled is an understatement! No suprise the models pretty much bore out what the presenter said. Coldest all week 3 deg on thurs before the wind and rain roll in.tue and wed where 6deg and 5 deg. Cant see much of a winterwonderland this week with those kind of temps,what an utter disappointment. Hacked off...

Looking more like game set and match to the Atlantic by Friday. Hate to say it but the evidence is overwhelming now. All an all its disappointing... The pink blob from hell just sitting between Canada and Greenland as it has pretty much all winter.

Hmmm-longer range modelling (GFS/ECM)continue with the poor profile to the north west as far as the eye can see...

Great posts this morning,nice to see that horrid PV getting shredded-the burning question is how long do the experts think the lag will be before we see changes in NH profile? The clock is certainly beginning to tock now Feb is only 5 days away...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.html Thursday remains the best option for snow this week in my opinion. Moreso the further north and east you go. Before that im not sure the uppers are low enough for snow as opposed to wintry showers, Obviously i hope the ECM is wrong with its evolution thereafter but the growing consensus seems to be an Atlantic breakthrough,whether its a damp squib or something more interesting remains to be seen...

GEFS 12z are not bad-but i think we can forget any easterly of substance/duration now. That UKMO 144 really is so bad its laughable. I guess the FAX charts will look very different to last night....

When you sit back and think about it you just couldnt make our luck up- The number of times down the years i have seen fabtastic cold charts from GFS/ECM at 144h and the UKMO saying no and nearly EVERY time the UKMO has been correct-i might be wrong but it might of even been 120h a couple of times.. The ONE time i can remember the UKMO showing cold heaven at 144h and the ECM/GFS not agreeing the UKMO goes and completely backs off. I had a full head of brown hair when i joined this (great) forum,is it any wonder i look in the mirror and see tele savalas

Yes ecm nowhere near as bad as ukmo thats for sure

LOL A one day Easterly! 144 shows the cold uppers getting shunted off east.

GEM is sublime this morning UKMO is very very nice. ecm/gfs not so nice. The models are clueless-so am i...

Unfortunately nick i agree with you. Its pretty apparent now UKMO DET runs today are/were leading us up the garden path. That said,i'd take my chances with the 12z ecm

HUGE ammount of northern blocking on that chart. The million dollar question is can we get the limpet rough far enough south...

Not liking this run at all. Az high much less favourabley placed.

not so sure about that cc

I think im correct(someone will if im wrong) but the midlands has seen some great snowfalls from sliders in the past... Im with you karl,its concerning me. TBH SO many times in the past we have sat here crowing over the cold synoptics at 144h and the meto have refused to ramp,9 times out of 10 when t0 arrives im wearing wellies and carrying an umbrella.. Im Praying for a change tomorrow

IMHO The Midlands could be the jackpot winners later next week.Esp parts with altitude like Buxton for example.

All i can say is he and others seem to be discounting the UKMO det.Typical,when we want the UKMO to be wrong its usually right,when we want it to be right.....

Dont know what to think now. Never straight forward is it. The meto update today had me worried-the ECM just compounds that worry. At this time though our thoughts have to be with those poor folk who have seen flooding and look to be staring down the barrel of more wind and rain.

HALF decent? hahahaha,think its a tad better than HALF decent.

SUBLIME GFS12z with the Atlantic disrupting against the huge block to the NE in the relaibale timeframe-snowfest...

Yes i think we are aware that you would LOVE it to go pear shaped bobby...

Thats not a great update from the meto is it? I really was expecting a more wintry update than that!