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Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

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Status Updates posted by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

  1. really poor beeb forecast just now looks a washout for many over the next few days :(

    1. Show previous comments  1 more
    2. lassie23

      lassie23

      Thought summer was around the corner!

    3. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
    4. karyo

      karyo

      It looks settled for Manchester and the northwest england in general

  2. Some very useable weather coming up in the reliable timeframe if 12z gfs is to be believed with temps in the low to mid 20's for many out until middle of next week,loverly :D

  3. LOVELY GFS 12Z today with some very warm dry sunny weather on offer over the coming 7 days,places in the south must look very parched by now i would imagine a house pipe ban will be on the cards if the superb start to summer doent break soon..?

    1. Show previous comments  14 more
    2. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Hmmm thursday looks poor across the spine of england going off that beeb forecast i just watched,fri looks showery but warm with 23 and 24 deg widely.

    3. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Spoke to soon ecm in fi is awful lol

    4. shedhead

      shedhead

      Lol Cec, shortest ramp I've heard for a while.

  4. some very warm air arriving this week from the continent :)

    1. Show previous comments  11 more
    2. lassie23

      lassie23

      Same here! As long as it's snowing then I'm happy, all other weather is blah!

    3. Mapantz

      Mapantz

      You wouldn't want to live here then.. It takes some special synoptics to get proper snow here now. If it does snow, say a few inches.. It melts within a few hours of falling :3

    4. lassie23

      lassie23

      Sounds like you live near hell!

  5. Improved 12z runs but i for one am not going to get carried away,far to much volatility in the models at present,June was good for many and july looks reasonable at the moment,no 2003 and certainly no 2012,kind of average really with the south having the better of it,as one would expect.

    1. Show previous comments  1 more
    2. shedhead

      shedhead

      Still think ejecting the trough far enough E next week will be difficult and a painfully slow process. Ireland and the the far south and west of UK look reasonable, but elsewhere it will be rather miserable at times, especially close to the N Sea coast.

    3. shedhead

      shedhead

      Nothing in the overnight model suite to suggest a return to fine, warm weather, indeed with winds predominating from a westerly quarter things look very ordinary.

    4. shedhead

      shedhead

      06 GFS again highlights the difficulties in ejecting next week's troughing, which certainly has the potential at least to bring some pretty dire weather for July, especially across eastern parts of the country.

  6. Not a great outlook if ecm is to be believed,never to worry im off to IBIZA in 2 weeks :D

    1. Show previous comments  3 more
    2. Summer Sun

      Summer Sun

      The rain in Ibiza is just a blip lots of sunshine from tomorrow with highs around 26c

    3. shedhead

      shedhead

      The weekend and next week shaping up pretty much as expected now, with little or no sign on any protracted nationwide warmth, let alone heat across the 1st half of July at least.

    4. Summer Sun
  7. Not so sure the unsettled slot into the weekend is going to be as brief as i was hoping,that trough looks set to setup shop somewhere in the north sea and could be extremely annoying and do a good job of preventing the azores high from moving across the BI.

    1. Show previous comments  6 more
    2. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      ECM if fine,but far too much undertainty regarding the limpet trough and how quickly it ejects,not liking the sight of that west Russian wedge of high pressure.

    3. Richard2901

      Richard2901

      Thank god I'm off to Croatia for a fortnight next week. This summer is shaping up to be another extremely poor one. Today was the first time out in the garden for almost a fortnight.

    4. mulzy

      mulzy

      Decent summer so far in London / SE.

  8. Another lovely ecm this morning with a very warm working week away from the far NW before a brief couple of unsettled days before the azores high makes its move.GFS not as good.

    1. shedhead

      shedhead

      My take is reasonable for most Mon-Thu, rather cool and unsettled Fri-Mon with rain or showers at times for all. Slowly improving next week, but how quickly and to what degree remind unclear, with an NW/SE likely to develop.

  9. Noticeable differnces between GFS and UKMO as ealy as 96hrs this morning! Half way house would leave a very dry and warm week for majority of England and wales,that will finish off a very useable June indeed.

    1. Show previous comments  10 more
    2. shedhead

      shedhead

      Meant beyond Fri.

    3. Mapantz

      Mapantz

      Nothing particularly crap. I sense a north/south split. After the winter's deluge (despite enjoying it) the synoptics being churned out aren't too shabby.

    4. shedhead

      shedhead

      Looks like very average fayre to me, which is not how Cecil has been trying to portray it over the last couple of days.

  10. GFS12Z is to good to be true with a brief couple of unsettled days then a highpressurefest! Unfortunately the meto update today doesn't sound anywhere near as inspiring although not a washout by any means.No sign of a dreaded 2012 setupanytime soon though :)

    1. Show previous comments  4 more
    2. Milhouse

      Milhouse

      Big upgrade in the warmth and downgrade in the low pressure. Good to see

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Give it a rest shedhead, I'm getting deja vu from last summer- all you did was predict gloom and misery then too!

    4. Captain Shortwave

      Captain Shortwave

      First 30C chart in the "semi-reliable" timeframe from the pub run.

  11. Very pleasing 0z runs this morning withGFS and ECM both showing mainly dry warm weather for the majority away from the far NW.

    1. Show previous comments  9 more
    2. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      many thanks CS and scorcher for your sensible (agenda-less)posts :)

    3. Tim M

      Tim M

      Confused. BBC for my area says max of 18 and showers every day after midweek. My area (Mansfield) is hardly the north west?

    4. Tim M

      Tim M

      Then again, yesterday we were forecast by the BBC for some sun this afternoon. Currently that dark the lights are on!

  12. LOL ECM is sublime,awaiting the comments from the DM's with interest :D

    1. Show previous comments  2 more
    2. lassie23

      lassie23

      Well it made me laugh! I heard that the weather is going to go pear shaped next week too!

    3. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      I think on reflection its very complicated,in other words ive no idea lol.

    4. karyo

      karyo

      Pears are tasty!

  13. 12Z RUNS 1-0 DOOM MONGERS,thats all :D

    1. Milhouse

      Milhouse

      They will just look into FI and pluck out awful charts. The amount of times i have heard 'cool and wet' in the outlook this June and it simply hasnt been.

    2. Thundery wintry showers

      Thundery wintry showers

      Yes, it could end up like the early-June spell, when in the absence of a nearby anticyclone, the lack of a strong jet stream prevented conditions from turning anomalously grey and rainy.

  14. The oz runs look a step back this morning with the end in sight to this fine spell now IMHO.

    1. Show previous comments  4 more
    2. shedhead

      shedhead

      Agreed, but I was referring to the ECM Op when talking about Glasto.

    3. cheese

      cheese

      What fine spell, is all I can say. LOL. I think I need a holiday abroad.

    4. Richard2901

      Richard2901

      What fine spell is all I can say as well. 2 good days out of 8 here and both turned bad by the time I finished work. Can't end soon enough.

  15. gfs/ukmo 12z are a high pressurefest :)

    1. Show previous comments  2 more
    2. Costa Del Fal

      Costa Del Fal

      Indeed, I'm all for a prolonged dry and sunny spell. Perfect conditions here in Cornwall. Wouldnt want any different!

    3. Daniel*

      Daniel*

      we are experiencing drought, apart from some convective showers. Minimal, if it was not for all that rain - during Winter, it would not look good.

    4. Thundery wintry showers

      Thundery wintry showers

      It's possible that many eastern areas won't get a prolonged dry and sunny spell (plenty of cloud on the eastern flank of the high) although it is hard to pin down cloud amounts in this type of setup.

  16. Hmm one post in the MO thread says ecm 12z massive outliar,next one says similaro the sensembles,LOL.

  17. Some folk never learn (and im thinking from last winter here) :D

    1. Show previous comments  5 more
    2. karyo

      karyo

      I haven't bothered going to the MOD thread since the great GP left netweather! :-(

    3. lassie23
    4. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Glacier point,he was amazing,and a nice chap to boot.

  18. Nice outputs again this morning,only iritation is those horrendous heights stretching from Canada right to Greenland,a winter of greens up there and a summer of oranges? Our luck will run out eventually if those heights dont disappear..

    1. Eugene

      Eugene

      Nice outputs if you like high cloud amounts away from the west yes, high centred to our west, Saturday not looking great

    2. Richard2901

      Richard2901

      Awful outputs. Wet tomorrow then a week of cloud thanks to a revolting high in completely the wrong place to bring fine weather. June shaping up to be yet another poor summer month.

  19. Just back from a days fishing and have to say that forecast for my region today was one of the most APPALLING of all time,it was virtually pitch BLACK most of the day due to the incessant LOW CLOUD,the beeb went for sunny spells and high cloud-yeah RIGHT :

  20. Snesational UKMO this morning and a great GFS too,no doubt ECM will continue to spoil the mood but its fast going down the toilet in my opinion.

    1. Show previous comments  5 more
    2. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Agreed nick,it was very poor during the winter and has again come into line with gfs/ukmo,i dont think its number 1 anymore.

    3. Summer Sun

      Summer Sun

      ECM seems to have got worse since they "updated" it last year

    4. Evening thunder

      Evening thunder

      I think it still tops the verification stats though, last times I saw them

  21. Dreadful ecm 12z later on with a HUGE Greeny high

    1. Show previous comments  6 more
    2. Evening thunder

      Evening thunder

      Tbh I was expecting worse from these comments, don't really loose 5C uppers in the south (Close to average) and looks to me like the trough to our west could 'revolve' more and orient in a way to bring warm air up from the south after T+240. Greeny high doesn't always = northerlies or lows over the UK, though I guess makes it more likely instead of a warmer flow post 240 I guess.. not that this detail of the ECM will verify.

    3. Daniel*

      Daniel*

      We might have a GH, but any northerly air flow will be much warmer then it is during winter.

    4. Captain Shortwave

      Captain Shortwave

      Certainly hoping that the pub run is closer to the mark for next week. The UK high is back in the game, at least for tonight.

  22. west looks best next week..

    1. Show previous comments  2 more
    2. cheese

      cheese

      They are supposed to have the worst summer weather - best not to mess with the natural order of things. ;-)

    3. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Yet the meto talk of NW Britain being more unsettled,odd.

    4. I Cumbria Marra I

      I Cumbria Marra I

      doesnt look very good here, 17/18c maxes.

  23. LOVE reading blue armys posts in the MOa real asset to NW that man!

    1. Eugene

      Eugene

      Shame nobody has mentioned in MO thread that GFS 06Z has moved towards GEM 00Z, NAVGEM 00Z and ECMWF OOZ in a Greenland high forming next week

  24. I'll be very suprised if the UKMO global model is out of line twice on the spin,and gfs backs it up 100%,i dont care for graphs/plots ECM has been dire now for months it kept getting it wrong in winter and i think its going to be wrong with its output again..

    1. Eugene

      Eugene

      Yeah not sure why ECM gets all the love

    2. Eugene

      Eugene

      GEM 00Z is a concern though

    3. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      METO outlook why do they ALWAYS seem to go with the most pesimistic model available?

  25. Well then GFS/UKMO evening runs look absolutely stunning,just in time for the world cup,evenings sat outside the pub watching England,wonderful just wonderful!

    1. Show previous comments  8 more
    2. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      fingers scrossed captain! :)

    3. Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

      ecm brings the northerly,still dry though and in the sun it will be warm i feel.

    4. SP1986

      SP1986

      ECM is slowly moving towards the GFS solution.. ECM isn't a hugely bad run by any means, but near the end, you could say it 'loses it'.

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