Jaffusmaximus

I really hope we get signals for decent cold for Jan/Feb in Dec! I remember last year watching the days drop off the calendar and the days getting longer then eventually when decent blocking came we where technically into spring.

@ BornFromTheVoid Well said! I am very limited in my knowledge of weather forecasting but I can tell an honest LRForcaster from a Quack. RJS or (MT Cranium as we know him over here) appears to go through alot of effort to provide honest and logic based weather forecaster that are not sensationalist or OTT and I for one appreciate his efforts! Whether RJS is proved right or wrong in the long term he is part of the stepping stone to a better knowledge for us all regarding LRF's!

Ah come on, not even a single flake their over the Republic of Ireland

I am only going to write Winter 2013/14 off in my mind come March 2014. Only way is up now! Had we kept getting stonking CFS runs and LRF's then we would only have been set up for major let downs. I still believe that all that early snow cover over Siberia is yet to shows its hand regarding this winter

What location is RJS referring to as mild? West Canada or Europe?

Looks near identical to your avatar BANK

I found with Big Joe's forecasts that he seems to have the general weather prediction kind of right but he does not take the small geographic location of our isles into the equation enough and even at that here in Ireland we miss out on cold alot more due to our more western location to the Mainland UK Being American he thinks big big big and it reflects in his forecasts!

How do people feel about Big Joe Bastartdi? As far as I know he has been touting 2013 onward as the Day after Tomorrow stuff And also last year 2012 Piers Corbyn did seem to try an moderate peoples exceptions of a freezing winter on twitter!

I am really hoping against hope that we will have clear frosty nights with snow lying during this event late Nov in to early Dec. Would be magical! http://earthsky.org/space/big-sun-diving-comet-ison-might-be-spectacular-in-2013 'Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) has been the most talked-about comet of 2013. When discovered in late 2012, it was said to have the potential to become a striking object visible to the eye alone around the time of its perihelion – or closest point to the sun – on November 28, 2013'

I only started getting into model watching and weather in general then and I remember well that expectant block and subsequent cold that was expected in Dec but as you say I remember the hissy fits more ! This year I have been reading up on any scrap of info I can and my feeling is that all the ingredients are there to make this winter something special but I am not going to lose the run of myself like I did last year trying to convince people to invest in Snow Socks for their cars!!!!! I have a feeling that if the azores high plays ball anything is possible!

Hi all! Great reading here so early on in the cold hunting season. I am very aware it still very early days but could someone enlighten me to when will the CFS and other long Range models come into a more reliable time-frame and when will the usual LRF from notable contributors start rolling in? From what I gather Northern Blocking seems to be the trend showing up on the long range models but when can I start taking them more serious? Cheers!

Hallelujah Praise the ECM Amen!

I have a feeling every other run is going to be called "Judgement Day" by some!

Please post a model frame or anything to illustrate, it can be frustrating trying to get an idea to what some posters are referring too!

To be honest I'm just getting confidence to call what I see and to call it right but it is quite obvious on this run.

Ridging in Atlantic a bit further West and not letting the PV have its own way without a fight on the 06z encouraging

Has there been any posts lately from Ian Fergusson. It would be interesting to get his take on current and possible model output.

Appears to me another slight adjustment West on this run, I wonder what the cumulative effect would be if these continue until the weekend?

This caught my attention as from my POV I have seen this many times over the January when the models where at their most volatile and chaotic. I am hoping to see over the coming week, the same chaos from run to run post 120 hrs to perhaps give an effect on the models that may be linked to the SSW. I also recall the fax charts were being adjusted West many times compared to the GFS eagerness to get lows to our shores ASAP. Seeing as no one knows exactly what will happen over the coming weeks I cannot see the harm in being liberal in predicting what may happen.

Will there be enough winter left post Feb 10th to get any meaningful cold or is this cutting it close?

Hope you do not mind me adding some snapshots from 86 to illustrate what a difference 10 days made! for comparison transformed into I have been out of interest going over Jan/Feb 86 and its an uncanny the resemblance with the current model output!

Its more a fetish

Both North Amercian Models are playing off the same hymn sheet. Must bode well as the Western PV is In Their Back Yard. GEM GFS And to follow suit the UKMO minus the low digging in further south over Britain and Ireland.

@ The Eye In The Sky I often get very frustrated reading your posts but I guess its only because you are calling what you see. I will continue to look forward to being annoyed by your posts in the future because the truth hurts sometimes!

A question here for someone that may be bored. What is the first thing to look for regarding the beginning of a new cold spell down the line and where to look?