Jaffusmaximus

I really hope we get signals for decent cold for Jan/Feb in Dec! I remember last year watching the days drop off the calendar and the days getting longer then eventually when decent blocking came we where technically into spring.

@ BornFromTheVoid Well said! I am very limited in my knowledge of weather forecasting but I can tell an honest LRForcaster from a Quack. RJS or (MT Cranium as we know him over here) appears to go through alot of effort to provide honest and logic based weather forecaster that are not sensationalist or OTT and I for one appreciate his efforts! Whether RJS is proved right or wrong in the long term he is part of the stepping stone to a better knowledge for us all regarding LRF's!

Ah come on, not even a single flake their over the Republic of Ireland

I am only going to write Winter 2013/14 off in my mind come March 2014. Only way is up now! Had we kept getting stonking CFS runs and LRF's then we would only have been set up for major let downs. I still believe that all that early snow cover over Siberia is yet to shows its hand regarding this winter

What location is RJS referring to as mild? West Canada or Europe?

Looks near identical to your avatar BANK

I found with Big Joe's forecasts that he seems to have the general weather prediction kind of right but he does not take the small geographic location of our isles into the equation enough and even at that here in Ireland we miss out on cold alot more due to our more western location to the Mainland UK Being American he thinks big big big and it reflects in his forecasts!

How do people feel about Big Joe Bastartdi? As far as I know he has been touting 2013 onward as the Day after Tomorrow stuff And also last year 2012 Piers Corbyn did seem to try an moderate peoples exceptions of a freezing winter on twitter!

I am really hoping against hope that we will have clear frosty nights with snow lying during this event late Nov in to early Dec. Would be magical! http://earthsky.org/space/big-sun-diving-comet-ison-might-be-spectacular-in-2013 'Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) has been the most talked-about comet of 2013. When discovered in late 2012, it was said to have the potential to become a striking object visible to the eye alone around the time of its perihelion – or closest point to the sun – on November 28, 2013'

I only started getting into model watching and weather in general then and I remember well that expectant block and subsequent cold that was expected in Dec but as you say I remember the hissy fits more ! This year I have been reading up on any scrap of info I can and my feeling is that all the ingredients are there to make this winter something special but I am not going to lose the run of myself like I did last year trying to convince people to invest in Snow Socks for their cars!!!!! I have a feeling that if the azores high plays ball anything is possible!

Hi all! Great reading here so early on in the cold hunting season. I am very aware it still very early days but could someone enlighten me to when will the CFS and other long Range models come into a more reliable time-frame and when will the usual LRF from notable contributors start rolling in? From what I gather Northern Blocking seems to be the trend showing up on the long range models but when can I start taking them more serious? Cheers!

Hallelujah Praise the ECM Amen!

I have a feeling every other run is going to be called "Judgement Day" by some!

Please post a model frame or anything to illustrate, it can be frustrating trying to get an idea to what some posters are referring too!

To be honest I'm just getting confidence to call what I see and to call it right but it is quite obvious on this run.