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David Morse

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Everything posted by David Morse

  1. The ECM trend for Monday 12Z is more progressive now with bringing the cold in quicker
  2. A few days ago the GFS was suggesting an easterly beginning on and around the 19th Feb, but the 12z has it now pushed out to the 23rd, a week later. I thought it be interesting to see what the trend of both ensembles was...
  3. For a long time I couldn't get to grips with what it means and most explanations, including the MetOff, just say its a reversal of winds high in the stratosphere, which of course is true, but doesn't explain it really. So analogy time, this is how I understand it Imagine the polar vortex is a cup of tea and you are stirring it carefully to get the most perfect stable vortex going, as you stir faster and faster the tea moves higher at the edges of the cup, lower in the middle. This well in the middle surrounded by higher tea on the edge of the cup equates the to pressure differential
  4. Not really a model, but I was wondering people's thoughts on the QBO; I went through it to see which years looked similar to 2017 in the whole set and only three have a trend to easterly QBO beginning in late spring.
  5. Perhaps the ECM and GFS runs are not giving enough to talk about; but its a clear extension of the blocking regime and it is ONLY the end of November?
  6. Not surprising to see the 12z GFS revert back to a more cold theme from this morning's 6z which shows that the operational run was the outlier.
  7. A bit pessimistic there non? Considering that so many teleconnections and indexes are pointing towards a colder than average start to the winter? Even the MO is saying there is a 30% chance of seeing cooler than average temps, 70% chance of average. Perhaps it'll not be 2010, but we'll all see snow falling at some point if not settling? To me all the recent runs are developing a theme and that is blocking and easterly and very little sign of any zonal coming back into play with any strength?
  8. Isn't this all the response from the previous Strat. disruption about 12 days ago?
  9. The February disruption in the QBO looked like putting the spanner in one of the possible cold influencing factors of this winter, here's a recent paper published on it, unfortunately its not accessible in full without an "institutional access" which I don't have. I think it is of great interest for those with a liking for cold (me included as I want to see a big freeze on the veg patch to get rid of this year's slug plague) with Siberian snow cover advancing very quickly in early October, increased late hurricane activity and what should have been an easterly QBO phase, what ef
  10. Hi Bluearmy; I was looking back at previous posts and this chart was posted on the 21st dec for the 28th dec, its a cold set up, but low is to the north east and its polar flow. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014122112/JN168-21.GIF?21-12
  11. I'd be delighted to look for you if you point me to the link. But I would have looked at the outputs on GFS, PFSP and ECMW plus more every day myself but never saw this set up, most of those were northerly set ups, polar express solutions.
  12. I think this is the first time we've seen this winter the GFS & the GFSP show a serious set up for serious cold over western Europe. a blocking ridge extending from the equator to the Pole across the Atlantic with a large low to the south east over Spain. In my view its similar to the run-ins to 2009 / 10 and 2010 / 11 where a period of northerlies bringing snow to the north coasts changed to a period of easterlies bringing the widespread cold and snow streamers. I've not seen this appear in any operational run this winter; if it has I'd love to to when?
  13. I just feel that the majority on here are interpreting this so wrongly (and very recent events support this). With a lobe of the PV over N.America bringing cold weather there this is the ideal set up for a conveyor of low systems to develop over NW Atlantic and head for the NE Atlantic where the temperature differential across the N.Atlantic is accelerating the Jet Stream and this will deepen any lows. Something the models proved last December / January that they cannot see very well. There is a slight blocking pattern; but this will be overwhelmed by the low altitude effect of the heat of the
  14. But SURELY, that Low to the south west is pumping warm air across the UK, not blizzards but buckets full of rain and winds! What is all the cold outlook hoola for?
  15. LOL OK Paul, I was being some what facetious with my earlier post; I'm well aware of what happened in Jan '14 with the PV. My issue is that the same scenario in late November 2014 doesn't inevitably lead to the same outcome but it is the most probable outcome, i.e. that the USA will see an cold period and we will get lashed out of it with storms. As opposed to the very early onset of an exceptionally cold spell which is not indicated at this point in the ensembles, when the majority of them start aligning I'll start to consider it; but the outlook says mixed and stormy not cold and frosty.
  16. @Nick sussex, Captain Shortwave and Banbury: if the PV was better organised in January 2014; where did all that cold weather in the USA come from and why didn't we get ice boxed in? What is clear is that a disrupted PV does not inevitably lead to backing up Exacta Weather and Daily Mail / Express sensationalist headlines. We are only in November, sea temps are warm and current conditions simply make it HIGHLY unlikely that there will be ANY serious cold in the foreseeable future. SST's are so high that living on these islands they impact the surface temps so massively that no matter how strong
  17. I think there's a strong tendency to be running away with ourselves here; last year the PV broke down giving North America some of its coldest temps, in the UK and Ireland we experienced the worst storm period on record and temps were higher than avg. Therefore a disrupted PV does not mean cold weather for this part of the world! A lot more has to happen before that comes in to play in my view. What this scenario suggests to me is a replay of the storms that affected us and the cold that affected The US last January?
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