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pdiddy

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  1. interesting week of weather watching coming up. Chance of some snow and who knows whether we will get some strong winds weds and thurs.
  2. just as it was shaping up to be a fairly dry event for Edinburgh! 300 miles difference between GFS Op/Control and the Beeb's track of the low.
  3. Agree - I thought 850s were unaffected by day/night meaning a better indication of air mass temps?
  4. snowing in Morningside now, so I will be booking this as a White Christmas!
  5. trying hard to snow in Edinburgh... almost sleety! Heavier drops taking longer to hit the ground - will still be marginal, I fear!
  6. Snow at Carter Bar on A68... it's coming, people
  7. Hmm. Knife edge stuff. I've got Edinburgh at 15/2, so I'm keeping an eye on the traffic Scotland live cameras. Looks like rain everywhere at present. https://trafficscotland.org/livetrafficcameras/
  8. Latest GFS pushes the Arctic High further towards Iceland, making the track of any slider further south, presumably.
  9. Yes, Control looks an outlier, but it's relatively flat, suggesting no return to zonal. Control moves more towards an Easterly in FI
  10. Hang on... you asked the question and I replied why there is, as far as you're concerned "so little enthusiasm". I have looked at the models. I'm not less enthusiastic. That said, the Azores low you mentioned quickly fills and heights replace it, so back to +ve NAO. That's what I see when I go look at the models. Happy to hear your alternate reading of same?
  11. I think it's because the split on the 6th/7th has now favoured the milder solution having been firstly 85/15 in favour of colder, then 50/50... Still not certain in my view but more runs needed.
  12. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    For all the talk of similar synoptics to 2010, it should be borne in mind that there was a significant cold pool to our North East then. The cold is not there (yet).
  13. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    There is some inevitable model-fatigue ahead of the winter starting. I think the important factor is not the detail, but the continuing signal for a disorganised PV and heights to the NW.
  14. JMA regularly over-cooks the highs over Grenland by 20-30mb...
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