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  1. To be fair, that's just an update from him, rather than his winter forecast; more of a "based on what the models are saying at this point"
  2. Not an outlier for Aberdeen,so possibly a "scaling" issue for Norway! That said, perhaps the Scandi high being shown on the 12z meant very localised conditions!
  3. Split of options shows very well in the Nuuk ensembles...
  4. Not sure I can recall such a tightly packed bunch across the GFS ens at this time of year before. Nothing looking like breaching the -10 line either... At least the signal is drier for the last 10 days of the month (at this stage!)
  5. The mean in FI is fairly meaningless though as it simply blends all scenarios. I'm more positive in the mid to longer term about the lack of PV in Greenland and Canada.
  6. Must admit I don't understand some of the posts here. Doesn't look zonal to me and the pattern remains of great interest. Certainly wet for the foreseeable as lows remain slow moving with the potential for more rain. Heights over Scandi remain and this is where I am focusing attention.
  7. i will be very (and pleasantly) surprised if Edinburgh gets much snow in this set up.
  8. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=55.9533&lon=-3.1883&ville=Londres I'm not in any pain with this at all.
  9. Just waiting to see what happens to the jet next. How much energy going in each direction as it splits in the Atlantic...
  10. The GSFP has been reasonably consistent in showing colder conditions from mid-month, which is still 2 weeks away. Had the MetO been absolutely spot in in their forecasts previously, I might pay more attention. As it is, mid-month is not without interest and those writing off cold until Feb are being a little hasty IMO.
  11. Happy to be corrected if you have evidence to support, but not true according to the Met Office: What impact does this have on the UK? We normally expect our weather to come in from the west - with a flow of relatively mild air coming in off the Atlantic. When an SSW brings easterly winds this tends to alter our weather patterns slightly, weakening areas of low pressure and moving our jet stream further south. This leads to high pressure over the North Atlantic, 'blocking' that flow of mild Atlantic air and dragging in cold air from the continent to the east. Exactly how cold it
  12. GEFs showing milder uppers next week or so with a trend to colder on/around the 7th: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres I find this table format helpful to assess ensembles...
  13. Meanwhile, back at the GFS Ranch and it's all change again on the 6z. Problem seems to be how to deal with the cold plunge in to the US and downstream impacts on the jet to me... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1&carte=1 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=5&carte=1
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