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  1. The mean in FI is fairly meaningless though as it simply blends all scenarios. I'm more positive in the mid to longer term about the lack of PV in Greenland and Canada.
  2. Must admit I don't understand some of the posts here. Doesn't look zonal to me and the pattern remains of great interest. Certainly wet for the foreseeable as lows remain slow moving with the potential for more rain. Heights over Scandi remain and this is where I am focusing attention.
  3. i will be very (and pleasantly) surprised if Edinburgh gets much snow in this set up.
  4. I think the cold will stay another day, E17.
  5. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=55.9533&lon=-3.1883&ville=Londres I'm not in any pain with this at all.
  6. Just waiting to see what happens to the jet next. How much energy going in each direction as it splits in the Atlantic...
  7. The GSFP has been reasonably consistent in showing colder conditions from mid-month, which is still 2 weeks away. Had the MetO been absolutely spot in in their forecasts previously, I might pay more attention. As it is, mid-month is not without interest and those writing off cold until Feb are being a little hasty IMO.
  8. Happy to be corrected if you have evidence to support, but not true according to the Met Office: What impact does this have on the UK? We normally expect our weather to come in from the west - with a flow of relatively mild air coming in off the Atlantic. When an SSW brings easterly winds this tends to alter our weather patterns slightly, weakening areas of low pressure and moving our jet stream further south. This leads to high pressure over the North Atlantic, 'blocking' that flow of mild Atlantic air and dragging in cold air from the continent to the east. Exactly how cold it might be depends on the details of where the air comes from. SSWs don't always result in this outcome - but a cold snap follows more often than not, so the SSW greatly increases the risk of wintry weather. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming
  9. GEFs showing milder uppers next week or so with a trend to colder on/around the 7th: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres I find this table format helpful to assess ensembles...
  10. Meanwhile, back at the GFS Ranch and it's all change again on the 6z. Problem seems to be how to deal with the cold plunge in to the US and downstream impacts on the jet to me... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1&carte=1 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=5&carte=1
  11. I can't agree with those bemoaning the lack of fantasy output showing cold. It was always most likely that December would finish with a HP close by especially given the signal for precipitation: Thereafter, chance of cold increases because of the strat situation. It's not nailed on by any means but the chance nevertheless increases. We also know from experience how hard the models find it in this scenario. I'm sure someone can post the verification stats from last Feb to prove my point. I have the 10th of Jan in mind for a change to cold, based on a week to ten days after the split/displacement, with the former seemingly most likely. Hence I'm expecting to see some ensembles starting to show cold (and we have seen these for a few days now) and over time expect to see more of this.
  12. I'd say average rather than mild: PLenty of colder options, but no serious cold in the immediate and reliable future beyond the weekend event.
  13. spot on! The jet is too powerful and, unless the energy goes under, we are looking at a wet and potentially windy period of weather for 7-10 days, i think
  14. so does Piers Corbyn... it's a forecast, same as any other. May be right, may be wrong. Meanwhile, looking like height rises pushing North and lots of options thereafter. Too early to tell whether we will get the retrogression being suggested, I think.
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