SE Blizzards

I think the GEM is about to deliver a BIG FAT BOOM!!

This is a note to all negative people... See, being positive does pay off

Snow event maybe for Southern Counties as well on the GFS(p) at Day 7 ?

Well, the Control doesn't support the Op at Day 8 Op Control Plenty of decent enough looking ENS too at Day 8 http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192&size= Edit: beaten to it again by King Steve, and also Mucka this time. Must get my fingers to work a bit quicker!

GFS (p) starting to finally trickle out. Boom or bust? I'm going to be positive and say Boom!

Coldies react after watching the final departing GFS Op pub run turn into a borefest. Seriously though, i don't think we should get too disheartened just yet. As long as the UKMO and ECM stay on board then i think we have a fighting chance of this cold spell coming off. All eyes now on the GFS(P) 18Z, (if it ever comes out), and also the 18Z ENS.

I really hope the GFS is just having a 'wobble' CC. The ENS in FI don't look great i'm afraid. A long way off from what they were Showing this morning that's for sure. Come on ECM, throw out a belter for us cold/snow staved fans, PLEASE!!

Wise words there nick. GFS 6Z ENS 2M Temps Central England.. Without doubt the coldest set of the Winter thus far, with a few very frigid runs starting to appear. I see this mornings output a bit like the end of the 1966 World cup Final - At the moment we're all (apart from IDO and Knocker) on the pitch (i.e getting ready to celebrate), we're all hoping that it's all over (i.e we're all hoping this time it's for real), and in the next 48 hours or so we'll find out whether Geoff Hurst completes his hat-trick, and if he does we can all say... ''It is Now'' (i.e it's coming!

GFS (P) Day 9 GFS Op Day 9

ECM 12Z ENS FOR LONDON Mean Temps around 3c / 4c from the 17th and not really rising all the way to the end. Now, that is a cold set of ENS considering that's for London. And whisper it quietly, some Easterlies are starting to show up on the GEFS at Day 9 / 10. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=228

ECM 0z was pants. ECM 12Z much better imo. I know i have been banging on about this for a few days now but again tonights ECM has seemingly transferred the core of the PV over to Siberia later on in it's run, and heights are trying desperately hard to rise over the Greenland area. This is a trend that's been showing for a while now and shouldn't be ignored. Whether it is correct or not we won't know for sure for a while yet, but as long as it keeps cropping up we should be encouraged by it. To illustrate this: Here is today's Today's Chart showing a strong and angry PV near Greenland, NE Canada. Now look at the Days 9 / 10 charts. The main core of the PV has once again gone over to Siberian. And if the run went out further there 'may' of been some subtle hints of some Amplification trying to get going in the Atlantic. Overall a pleasing ECM 12Z, with very little in the way of mild on offer.

Ben Rich hasn't half changed since i last saw him...

Keep things the way they are imo

Quite simply the post of the day. It's been quite an exhausting day of model watching, so on that note, I'd like to wish everyone a very peaceful goodnight.

Oh, that's naughty, you've cheery picked a chart there CS! lol Looking at the 18Z ENS, there is a whole range of solutions in FI (as always) so i don't think anyone can say with any great confidence where we go after this colder spell that's due over the next few days.

No worries. Neither of us are right or wrong. Just different opinions that's all. We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one and move on

Again, very misleading. The GFS op was 'COLD' zonal up to a certain point, then later on in FI it wasn't zonal at all. Anyway, deep FI so unlikely to verify (but you never quite know for sure) Also, quite a nice end to the GFS (p)

Ah, i think i should just make a quick comment here. I haven't made a forecast or told anyone that late January/early February the UK 'will' turn into something of a fairytale Winter Wonderland. When i submit my posts i clearly post them with charts, and back them up with comments on what they are showing, and what tonight's ECM 12z chart that i posted earlier showed was the 'potential' for something to perhaps develop later this month. Yes, i admit to being something of a cold ramper at times, (and proud of it), but let's not get too ahead of ourselves. The models are currently showing a cooler/colder trend as things stand, and this impressive Day 7 mean from the ECM shows it nicely. Now, what happens after here is up for debate, but i am encouraged by tonight's ECM 12Z 240h chart, and if the signal does grow towards an even colder pattern (to the one we currently have) later on this month, be rest assured i will RAMP things up accordingly. Cheers.

Further evidence at 240 on tonights ECM that the PV is starting to drain away from Greenland and shift itself to a more favourable position later this month.. And i'm not sure if anyone has posted this today, but today's updated AO forecast see's most members falling off a cliff as we head into the last third of January.

12Z ENS 2M Temps Northern England. One word, Cold! Getting close to ice day material there on the 17th. Also the Op was a fairly wild mild outlier once again in FI. No real surprise there. 850 temps also cold, with a cold cluster towards the end. Looking closer at the ENS in detail there is plenty there to keep cold lovers more than interested. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384 http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=384

Great update. Thanks for that. And Agreed Paul. Time to move on from mild/not very cold/cold gate, or what ever you wanna call it. Anyway, 12z's starting to roll out now, and no doubt they'll all show something completely different to what they were showing this morning..

The mean chart i posted last night on post *619 was for last nights 18Z ens, it has now changed to the 6Z one, so doesn't actually reflect it very well now. People WILL see some snowy weather over the next few days, especially the further North you are, i have little doubt about that, but maybe it just won't be a countrywide event! And according to Summer Sun it's snowing rather heavily RIGHT NOW in some place up north! Anyway, the story is still the same imo, whether you like it or not the Models are showing a colder spell of weather is on it's way. How cold it will get, and how long it will last is anyone's guess at present.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82208-model-output-discussion-stormy-period-inbound/?p=3110692

I really cant understand some of the negativity in here today, i really can't. There have been quite a fair few hints recently that the main core of the PV will loosen it's grip over the Greenland area later this month and transfer itself over to the Siberian side, and i think if the ECM (see chart above) was to go out any further then it 'may' of shown something like this to happen. I do feel that one or two members get too hung up over every GFS run, and as soon as it shows a 'milder' FI outlook people then start writing Winter off all over again. The bottom line is it really could be a lot worse, we could be staring down the barrel of relentless mild wet S'Westerly crud like we were last year, but the fact is we're not. It IS set to turn colder, and these mean charts fully back this idea up.

How about this for a day 8 mean? Anyone disappointed with that should either reevaluate their UK Winter cold expectations... or move to the North pole!