The Real Snowman
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Posts posted by The Real Snowman
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14 hours ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
Firstly folks I would like to say a massive thanks for all the well wishes I've received from many of you over the loss of my best mate and dad. I showed them to my mom and she was genuinely moved. Its given me a lift that so many show so much care and sympathy during difficult times. Your an amazing bunch and I really hope you get all the rewards you crave for.
For the weather I said a while back that backend of December next month could change. And I'm seeing from a few ens that the pv could be about to be displaced maybe even a split....I feel your pain regarding the way things have gone wrong for this latter part of this month....but do remember we are not alone...The USA has been very mild and largely snowless also!
No downgrade from Exeter regarding colder conditions perhaps becoming more likely next month. We have plenty of time and I feel the pattern will be completely shook up post Xmas.
Once again...much love guys and gals...you've cheered up this rather sad individual right now. And I will continue to try and inject a positive vibe into this gr8 thread.
Was gutted to hear about your loss Matt. Hope you and the family are ok in this most difficult of times. All the best fella. Sorry Mods but had to say something.
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1 hour ago, geordiekev said:
Instant red card to the first person who mentions 'breakdown' I'm afraid. Hard not to cherry pick with so many juicy charts to choose from
I quite agree but we know that is what will be happening now. Lets get this in then enjoy it. Then we can 'worry' about the breakdown. First world problem.
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11 minutes ago, khodds said:
Just picked up an email from one of our transport companies, apparently a lorry has already been turned over on the M5
Hope you stayed home. Cheers
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1 minute ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
Just lost power. No more weather updates from me
Updates have been superb - but most important is you keep safe.
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17 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:
Ooo I might have to go out and buy some super noodles.
I was impressed with the cream cakes - excellent shout
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10 minutes ago, Downburst said:
My word, I read the Daily Mail Online article which in fairness for the semi literate was trying to get important points across, but comments are really depressing. I have no idea how that could be the 2nd most popular paper in the UK given the depression the comments make, "good news" and "just a breeze" and all the rest. Why are they so negative? how does this impact peoples mental health, misery heaped upon misery
Indeed. It really is toilet paper but you'd have to buy it first which I just could not bring myself to do. Utter tripe.
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21 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
Here's where Eunice is currently tracking. The rotation should appear in the next few hours as it begins to rapidly deepen.
Incredible image - thank you very much for posting.
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Merry Christmas everyone I’m going to continue recovering from illness which is proving slow going and try and make the best of Christmas regardless of the weather. The classic nowcasting of looking out the window will see me right. All the best to you all.
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55 minutes ago, supernova said:
Spectacular level of trolling on here and online this morning. Why people feel the need to turn a positive interest in the weather into personal, negative, or ego-led comment I've no idea. Personal opinion, different interpretation, challenging perspectives all absolutely fine, but deliberately provocative and bolshy posts serve no purpose other than to highlight a lack of empathy and an apparent need for attention. What some people seem to forget is that how you say something is so often just as, if not more important, than what you say. Still, GFS clearly affected by the tone as it taints earlier runs with slight incursion of milder air but semantics still being resolved - broader pattern all good so far.
I could not agree more with these sentiments. I tell my children this regularly. How you say something is often the key rather than what you say.
Also agree, general theme of pattern very interesting relative to past years where mild mush is the form horse. Not this year. The Christmas cold tease goes on!
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5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
I don't want this forum to start descending into a platform for "I told you so" type posts. Can we agree that we all have different perspectives & be respectful of that, regardless of what happens.
Quite agree with this. All have the ability to make their views known and many don't (including me as I don't have the skill). But for what it is worth, Kasim was spot on last year on a number of marginal events around my neck of the woods. He has my backing! If the ECM is wrong, so be it, but recently, the general theme of the runs from the models has been colder from my perspective. The fact that the GFS has now taken its ball home for one run is not enough to make me doubt that a colder evolution is still more likely. The question is how cold and is there a chance of snow for some. We won't know that for some time at this range. But I don't believe anyone suggesting one potential outcome over another should be subject to 'told you so' comments if what they thought would occur did not come to pass. The thrill of the chase is frankly a lot of what this forum and hobby is all about and really, given our weather is usually westerly based it is hardly a 'victory' for anyone predicting that it will revert to that - because eventually, it will.
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4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Yes I note the hi-res models also show significant gusts well inland for elevated areas. There will be villages with problems tonight around the borders.
Yes I think this is very likely. I have to say I am not in the 'Red Zone' but am at some elevation and the wind has become very noticeable over the last hour and a half. For those even further North in the warning area, it is going to be a nasty night. I just hope everyone is ok and can perhaps enjoy a winter wonderland tomorrow morning. A naive wish perhaps, but I still hope for the best. Will be fascinating from a weather perspective but there is an undoubted severe risk upon a fairly wide area with still significant populations within it.
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20 minutes ago, matty40s said:
Newcastle lads might need a t shirt...
Might is the key word
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I think there are some fair comments here. If this was London, we'd know all about it - and rightly so. But this the UK - this is a major weather event. Not good coverage at all.
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2 minutes ago, Climate Man said:
Yep, I do love it when the PV visits Scandavia
I think we said 'this is going to be'.....
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5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
Oh my this is Gonna be a big fat BOOM
I agree, I have never typed this in this forum or anywhere for that matter so here goes............BOOM!!!!!
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1 hour ago, booferking said:
Absolutely crazy chart for end November
It most certainly is. I'd love to see how this would evolve from here. As other's have posted though - there is some very blocked results being thrown out and equally, some very flat ones too. More runs needed but I always love it when we get the carrots being dangled in front of us - very interesting and better than highly mobile patterns just bringing the misery of flooding. Would be nice to see us on the right side of things from a frost and snow perspective. Keep hoping team! Something may be a foot, I just hope it's the snow levels - I will get my coat. Which hopefully, we will need!
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42 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:
Finally both ECM and GFS seem to be on same page as todays longer range forecast from Susan Powell from the BBC earlier today. Both models have been very far apart recently but todays Windys shows not a lot of difference for Saturday this week. I recently noticed a good comment from an animal lover and bird enthusiast about noting nature pointers, which mainly are actually more certain than computers. This morning at 8am, I saw what looked like a scene out of "The Day After Tomorrow" , many flocks or skeins of birds were filling the sky at around 1000 feet. That's unusual for this time of year. I dont have to tell you what heading they were on do I.???...yep WEST out to the coasts of Blackpool or Liverpool or even Ireland. Where the freeze will be tempered some what by the mini climate that surrounds North West Britain. The small birds remain to be feeding heavily in our gardens, and will totally rely on us to keep them alive through this 10 day freeze. see more about saving your garden birds at the RSPB site!!!
So here are the two maps from ECM and GFS for one day this weekend. Theres also a huge low pressure system 952mb with very tight icobars off the Atlantic. GFS has it sinking south, while ECM has it steady increasing the chance of blizzards almost anywhere as mean winds are associated with is up to 27mph.... I will still need to see it in Lancashire to believe snow will fall, But Im more hopeful than a few days ago, But honestly this will possible cripple the covid vaccine turnout, if towns and citys get heavy snow, along with stranded vehicles and other problems. Spare a thought for Amanda Owen and Clive at the Yorkshire farm afar at Ravenseat, where most of my relations live not far on the high town called "Richmond", off scotch corner,M1 A1. they have already sent snaps to us off vast mounts of snow over 7-8 days already.
Below, both models are agreeing to wintry weather by Saturday the 6th February. BBC weather seems to be following more or less the ECMS tracking. To my mind the GFS seems to make a poor job of creating a coherent forecast.. that flies in opposition of other mainstream sources. stay safe and get your sledge bought before they all sell out!!!
Near Richmond is where I am. Had double figure snow days here with more to come by the looks of it. Sorry Mods - But this inbound weather looks very interesting indeed and I anticipate more to come for large swathes of the Country.
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4 minutes ago, lorenzo said:
Who ordered the 1070mb block then - own up !
I admit it was me and with a murr sausage too. Who wouldn’t?
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36 minutes ago, sunnijim said:
I really despair of the this forum at times, as much as I enjoy reviewing it daily, this morning there is again page after page of non model related discussion.
People moaning and having a go at each other all allowed to remain in place here!
The disappointment from me comes from the fact that the moment I have ever put something here slightly off topic ( recent replys to the localised snowfall) it gets shifted as off topic!
Fair enough I think, even though my attempts to join the debate here snuffed out once again, I can't post 'on topic' as much as I would like because I'm simply not as knowledgeable as most here.
Please,if there are rules,enforce them properly.
Easy to moderate a 'Sunnijim' who rarely posts,not so easy to upset a self styled 'big hitter' perhaps?
I think you are absolutely right about the digs at one another. I know we can get frustrated but as a few have said it’s only a hobby and as disappointing as it can be there’s just no need to do it. The thrill of the chase is as much a part of it and although the chase has yet to bear any fruit things don’t always go the way we want it. Only a few days ago most were content. It’s gone wrong but I do concur with the approach that in the grand scheme of things it’s not something that warrants such negative responses. It does detract from a great thread. One that has given a great deal of pleasure over the years and I know many of us. Christmas is on the approach everyone and I hope all have a great one.
best,
RealSnowman
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3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:
Yes Matt, and @chionomaniac, I am on the verge of calling time on this winter, and this is very unusual for me. I would like to explain why.
It is the Met Office and their model, GloSea5. If it predicts mild with certainty it has never been wrong, as far as i can see (going to back to since it was GloSea4). Last year it was right, and the reason was the Indian Ocean Dipole. I had never even heard of it and it delivered and then some. The only time GloSea5 has been totally wrong has been, yes you’ve guessed it, when it has forecast cold. I think it was 2016/17 winter, all looking good and then winter over by about 7 Dec if I recall correctly, wasn’t posting at the time much, @CreweCold will remember, as he was quite vociferous about it.
I’m concerned about our hobby. If UK winter can be predicted like this, what is the point? It removes the rush when something unexpected happens. Analogy to gambling. I like gambling, it gives me a rush. Around year 2000 i had inside info into certain pub fruit machines and could make a regular profit, and guess what it wasn’t much fun, if you know you are going to win or lose it takes away the experience.
I think that is half way to where we are with winter now, unfortunately, we now know if we haven’t got a cat in hells chance of a cold winter half the years, but we don’t know, in the other years, if we’ve got a chance, maybe, maybe not. I’m sure GloSea7 will be soon able to close off that element of our uncertainty and fun and novelty of proper wintery weather. When I was a child, to find it had snowed overnight and flakes still falling in the morning, it was magical. Now, it hardly ever happens, and in the future GloSea7 will tell you which day of which month you might next expect that unlikely event to happen.
All the best, Mike
I think this is the irony of our technical evolution. One day we may have it pretty much pinned down. It’s a horrid paradox that then makes this an almost pointless exercise. The hunt for cold, for those that want it is I think linked to our childhood experiences and happy memories of snow. It’s apparently increasingly difficult for us to get that which is a horrid shame. But I think it’s actually worse that we could end up being so accurate with our forecasting tools that the surprise of snow when not expected is taken away. Always troubled me and I’m not surprised I’m not the only one. An almost poignant post Mike.
Keep safe all
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8 hours ago, legritter said:
Hi Gang, last nights GFS certainly put me to sleep with lovely dreams of Arctic mayhem, and snow by the bucket. Todays runs ,well i am only looking at the most out to 168 hrs ,as i expect plenty of twists as there is a lot going on as i expect a major change to the northern hemisphere pattern come new year ,yes new year gang .not only can i feel it in my water but the way the charts are changing tells me something is LURKING , my fridge magnet of Michael fish fell off overnight , the last time this happened the beast turned up ,cheers gang STEllas on me .
Must be made like the old magnetic weather symbols he used to use!!
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6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Much colder air trying to come down from the NE ,but nearly always low pressure is too far north so it can’t undercut because high pressure is building up from the South at the same time,so frustrating.
yet any other season,no high pressure to the South of u.k. for weeks and weeks.The weather gods hate cold weather fans in the u.k.
Yes at the moment it looks this way and yes incredibly frustrating with a vortex so disrupted. Right now if we won the lottery we’d lose the ticket. But we keep chasing and hopefully those who suggest something more seasonal for Christmas are right. It’s still possible!! As they say in the polar express, Believe!
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9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Ouch I guess your winter forecast has changed then.I doubt the pattern will remain the same for the next two months,the models are still struggling 7 days out.
Keep the faith.I know some of the experts are predicting a bitter outbreak early january
Yep that’s one winter forecast no longer supported by its author after just 15 days. Agree we need to keep faith that we’ll get some cold shots over the season. But any prolonged cold looks unlikely this month and January has been written off by GP. We will see if he’s right or wrong but regardless the hunt goes on.
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3 minutes ago, Fairweather Teessider said:
What?
Basically if the UKMO isn’t onboard then don’t get too excited. Many of us did, many of us dared to dream but alas many of us are disappointed. As much as I’d have been interested to see how the news would report the ‘snowcane’ and indeed how the pattern would evolve subsequently without the UKMO buying into the notion of the cold spell being suggested by the other models it was always a risk to get too excited. Lesson learnt (again) (until next time). This model watching is worse than crack.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Agreed - Merry Christmas all and I hope a peaceful and healthy New Year to all too. Thank you everyone for their contributions to this superb forum, it certainly helps me day to day.