The Real Snowman

Agreed - Merry Christmas all and I hope a peaceful and healthy New Year to all too. Thank you everyone for their contributions to this superb forum, it certainly helps me day to day.

Was gutted to hear about your loss Matt. Hope you and the family are ok in this most difficult of times. All the best fella. Sorry Mods but had to say something.

I quite agree but we know that is what will be happening now. Lets get this in then enjoy it. Then we can 'worry' about the breakdown. First world problem.

Hope you stayed home. Cheers

Updates have been superb - but most important is you keep safe.

I was impressed with the cream cakes - excellent shout

Indeed. It really is toilet paper but you'd have to buy it first which I just could not bring myself to do. Utter tripe.

Incredible image - thank you very much for posting.

Merry Christmas everyone I’m going to continue recovering from illness which is proving slow going and try and make the best of Christmas regardless of the weather. The classic nowcasting of looking out the window will see me right. All the best to you all.

I could not agree more with these sentiments. I tell my children this regularly. How you say something is often the key rather than what you say. Also agree, general theme of pattern very interesting relative to past years where mild mush is the form horse. Not this year. The Christmas cold tease goes on!

Quite agree with this. All have the ability to make their views known and many don't (including me as I don't have the skill). But for what it is worth, Kasim was spot on last year on a number of marginal events around my neck of the woods. He has my backing! If the ECM is wrong, so be it, but recently, the general theme of the runs from the models has been colder from my perspective. The fact that the GFS has now taken its ball home for one run is not enough to make me doubt that a colder evolution is still more likely. The question is how cold and is there a chance of snow for some. We won't know that for some time at this range. But I don't believe anyone suggesting one potential outcome over another should be subject to 'told you so' comments if what they thought would occur did not come to pass. The thrill of the chase is frankly a lot of what this forum and hobby is all about and really, given our weather is usually westerly based it is hardly a 'victory' for anyone predicting that it will revert to that - because eventually, it will.

Yes I think this is very likely. I have to say I am not in the 'Red Zone' but am at some elevation and the wind has become very noticeable over the last hour and a half. For those even further North in the warning area, it is going to be a nasty night. I just hope everyone is ok and can perhaps enjoy a winter wonderland tomorrow morning. A naive wish perhaps, but I still hope for the best. Will be fascinating from a weather perspective but there is an undoubted severe risk upon a fairly wide area with still significant populations within it.

Might is the key word

I think there are some fair comments here. If this was London, we'd know all about it - and rightly so. But this the UK - this is a major weather event. Not good coverage at all.

I think we said 'this is going to be'.....

I agree, I have never typed this in this forum or anywhere for that matter so here goes............BOOM!!!!!

It most certainly is. I'd love to see how this would evolve from here. As other's have posted though - there is some very blocked results being thrown out and equally, some very flat ones too. More runs needed but I always love it when we get the carrots being dangled in front of us - very interesting and better than highly mobile patterns just bringing the misery of flooding. Would be nice to see us on the right side of things from a frost and snow perspective. Keep hoping team! Something may be a foot, I just hope it's the snow levels - I will get my coat. Which hopefully, we will need!

Near Richmond is where I am. Had double figure snow days here with more to come by the looks of it. Sorry Mods - But this inbound weather looks very interesting indeed and I anticipate more to come for large swathes of the Country.

I admit it was me and with a murr sausage too. Who wouldn’t?

I think you are absolutely right about the digs at one another. I know we can get frustrated but as a few have said it’s only a hobby and as disappointing as it can be there’s just no need to do it. The thrill of the chase is as much a part of it and although the chase has yet to bear any fruit things don’t always go the way we want it. Only a few days ago most were content. It’s gone wrong but I do concur with the approach that in the grand scheme of things it’s not something that warrants such negative responses. It does detract from a great thread. One that has given a great deal of pleasure over the years and I know many of us. Christmas is on the approach everyone and I hope all have a great one. best, RealSnowman

I think this is the irony of our technical evolution. One day we may have it pretty much pinned down. It’s a horrid paradox that then makes this an almost pointless exercise. The hunt for cold, for those that want it is I think linked to our childhood experiences and happy memories of snow. It’s apparently increasingly difficult for us to get that which is a horrid shame. But I think it’s actually worse that we could end up being so accurate with our forecasting tools that the surprise of snow when not expected is taken away. Always troubled me and I’m not surprised I’m not the only one. An almost poignant post Mike. Keep safe all

Must be made like the old magnetic weather symbols he used to use!!

Yes at the moment it looks this way and yes incredibly frustrating with a vortex so disrupted. Right now if we won the lottery we’d lose the ticket. But we keep chasing and hopefully those who suggest something more seasonal for Christmas are right. It’s still possible!! As they say in the polar express, Believe!

Yep that’s one winter forecast no longer supported by its author after just 15 days. Agree we need to keep faith that we’ll get some cold shots over the season. But any prolonged cold looks unlikely this month and January has been written off by GP. We will see if he’s right or wrong but regardless the hunt goes on.

Basically if the UKMO isn’t onboard then don’t get too excited. Many of us did, many of us dared to dream but alas many of us are disappointed. As much as I’d have been interested to see how the news would report the ‘snowcane’ and indeed how the pattern would evolve subsequently without the UKMO buying into the notion of the cold spell being suggested by the other models it was always a risk to get too excited. Lesson learnt (again) (until next time). This model watching is worse than crack.