Tom Jarvis
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Posts posted by Tom Jarvis
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Ahhhhhhh these model changes are not doing my health any good. My sister has her wedding this weekend from Friday to Sunday. From saying it looks nice to now a washout. How do I tell her it now looks v wet!!!!
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3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
I’m very close. Turners hill but wondering whether to jaunt further
I might head down to Brighton and head back up as they move inland
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6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
So why didn’t the forecasts show this earlier? (I’m looking at you Estofex)
btw we met at Friends Clump / Ashdown a few years ago didn’t we?
What a bust that was but ever since it’s been a place I consider for storms. An excellent location and the reason I’ve ended up in this pub right now, at this time of year, in this part of the country, localised entirely in this small town…
thanks are in order sir
You on the Ashdown forest tonight? Im possibly about to head out and chase near there?
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4 minutes ago, fergieweather said:
Actually it's an entirely competent mesoscale/European domain model (& indeed proved exceptionally useful on numerous occasions as a forecasting tool during the 2021 Formula One season, for various agencies). Alongside ARPEGE, EURO4 (RIP!) & others, always perused by e.g. UKMO duty Chief Forecaster in overall assessments. Lately we are seeing a repeated saga of various operational models expressing themselves run-to-run across a varied span of respective ensemble envelopes and indeed at longer lead times, not helped by ongoing poor performance of sub-seasonal models particularly beyond ~wk2. And winter (strictly) hasn't even started until tomorrow...
sounds like we have a very big dose of Shannon entropy at the moment!!
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Already a massive difference on the ECM between t48 and t 72. Low is further south and west. It also is allot better negatively tilted
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Any chance for stuff getting down to East Sussex?
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Looks like this precipitation isn't going to reach my location in Sussex. Can anyone tell me when there will be a chance of my location seeing meaningful snow
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7 minutes ago, wellington boot said:
I'm prob just over 10 miles ENE of you and I'm at the same. Looks great for now and seems to be pepping up - concern for me is that I'm about as far SE as I think will possibly be covered, and I could easily see a slight reorientation occurring which puts me just to the South of it. But that's if it even gets inland as far as us...
Yep seems so hard for our locations to get any decent amount of snow from an easterly
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Looks like a streamer is finally heading towards my location just hope it keeps its intensity to reach far enough down here
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Really hope that the precip in the channel will make it into Sussex
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@kold weather why does the streamer seem to lose all strength before getting to my location?
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Current situation here have about a 1cm covering on the grass but was unable to sick to the patio. Now looks like I’m in a dry slot but hope a streamer moves back over soon
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Got heavier snow here now but not able to settle on the patio
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7 minutes ago, leemondo said:
Doing OK here atm, heavier stuff forecast from around 11am for a few hours, sticking to everything apart from the roads and pavements
Not far from you hope the heavier stuff reaches us soon
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Light snow here now. Need the heavier stuff to get here soon
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How much further west is this band going to get as I’m. Just on the edge of it
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1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:
Blimey. Just rain here but I know the low pressure will have a curved cold undercut. Whereabouts are you Marie? Higher up?
Staring to get more sleet in the rain here just on the edge of the heavy band to my south. Going to get a couple hours sleep and be up at 4am
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7 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:
Latest radar is a thumbs up. And this doesn’t show western precipitation
Chino how much do you think is Sussex ppl can expect
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Hope we can fill in the gaps in the precipitation won’t be impressed if I miss out to the north and to the south
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4 minutes ago, Dazzer6666 said:
Maybe I’ll go up to Ditchling Beacon and live-stream on Facebook from about 2am on Sunday
I would say going to the Ashdown forest will be a better location some car parks that are exposed to the north east.
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Any news on the ecm 18z?
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Just now, lassie23 said:
Is that a dog napping on you lol
Yes one of 12 puppies my ridgeback had late last year. Hoping the one we have kept sees it’s first snow next week
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Looks like east anglia is getting buried on this run. Might need to spit the treads as the disparity between what east Anglia gets and Kent and Sussex is quite large
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Anyone see the hook echo on the cell near Boston?