Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Mucka

Members
  • Posts

    5,356
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

Mucka last won the day on December 10 2016

Mucka had the most liked content!

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Manchester
  • Interests
    Everything, especially philosophy, physics and meteorology - did I mention football?
  • Weather Preferences
    Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

Mucka's Achievements

Maestro

Maestro (14/14)

  • 30 days in a row
  • 5000 items posted Rare
  • Ten years in
  • Dedicated
  • Week One Done

Recent Badges

19.5k

Reputation

  1. Oh, and by the way, here is the specifics of the short range differences on ECM ensembles I was outlining Yesterday V today for Jan 1st
  2. It is getting rally tiresome having you contradict my posts. Yesterday V today ECM mean. That is a big difference, hardly a firming up and if you look at the 850 ensembles you will see another obvious difference. On top of that I was pointing out a massive correction W of ECM which apparently you didn't notice, but hey. I also correctly stated how the op was out of kilter with the other models and Yesterday's output was best ignored, you didn't.
  3. The whole ensemble suite and mean is night and day compared to last night Definitely not to be sniffed at as a 10 day mean, last night any Atlantic blocking chances were a write off
  4. It is Nick, and I was highlighting how ECM was on the extreme end of progressive yesterday even after yesterdays 12z it was still way more E with the low than UKMO or GFS. Basically yesterdays output was for the bin for whatever reason.
  5. ECM much more inline with UKMO now and has corrected the low W so let's see where it takes it from here.
  6. So ECM ensembles pretty much with the Op, surprising to me given ECM has the low NE of Scotland at 120 and other models have it NW of Scotland. That is quite a big difference at 120h on how the Arctic/Scandi ridge backs up the pattern on other output. Here is ECM 120h mean V GFS and UKMO output So it will be interesting to see if UKMO and GFS become more progressive tomorrow or of ECM continues to correct the pattern W My guess would be ECM will correct W and will show an Atlantic ridge day 8 to 10, we will see tomorrow.
  7. Answer ECM. It isn't stalling the low 120H against the arctic ridge/Scandi heights. It is almost 1,000M held back from yesterday but still pushing through much further E than other models in general. You can't imagine it is leading the pack if it is correcting 12z run to run so much over 24 hours It almost certainly will be at odds with its ensembles and most likely for the bin.
  8. "One of these things just doesn't belong here, one of these things just isn't the same. Can you guess which one it is?"
  9. ECM struggling. It has brought the low back around 1K miles West from yesterdays 12z and it istill a few hundred miles further E then GFS or UKMO.
  10. That's some very impressive cold that builds up to our E/NE over the next week if GFS is to be believed and the possibility of us tapping into it 2nd week of Jan certainly exists. Projected temp for NH, 27 Dec to 3rd Jan.
  11. Wet and windy is the easy forecast for the foreseeable but that masks a potential change in pattern and background signals that suggest a new regime is possible shortly into the new year. Short term upgrades are possible to have some wintriness into the mix for the N if low pressure is weaker and further S than currently modelled post 96h although current output seems keen to do the opposite and blow up the next low to keep the wet and windy theme going. Despite this UKMO still has that low stalling and associated height rises over Scandinavia and GFS although different in some ways also sniffing at the possibility of a Scandi high. I don't think I would put much weight in that drawing an Easterly for New Year as it is as much a ridge created by Arctic height rises rather than true Scandi high. However it may well help back up the pattern and create the possibility of a ridge behind forming in the Atlantic once more with the chance of a Northerly flow setting up as we head through the first week of NY. I think that is our most likely route to any cold and snow chances based on current output although I wouldn't rule out some some positive changes in that regard through days 5-7 Belated merry Christmas everyone, here is to a snowy start to 2024.
  12. Yes indeed, what was a weak but discernible signal a couple of days ago in the ensemble mean is now quite a strong signal for some form pressure rise to our W. Let's see if we can trend that a little further W and N with a sharper gradient over the next few days. Meanwhile it is a case of watching how far S we can get post Christmas Atlantic lows to disrupt and how much Arctic air we can get into the mix. The potential for change is there in the New Year with GFS and ECM throwing up possible mid lat blocking forming, albeit very different scenarios, that in itself may be a sign something is afoot. Something to watch anyway in the midst of this wet and mild muck.
  13. UKMO staying with the possibility of some wintriness for Scotland and high ground for England but possibly a little sleet/snow for NE England. GFS still has the low much further N and the difference with UKMO by 168 is fairly stark. GEM is closer to the UKMO solution , ICON somewhere in the middle. GFS Op doesn't offer much hope TBH, relentlessly wet and windy and the only remotely interesting thing on it is the strat warming. GFS p25 is a very unlikely outlier sending the low into Spain/France, can't see ECM following that unfortunately.
  14. I remember that. I went down to Wales with a friend and our girlfriends at the time and we walked down to the local in T-shirts! Ahhh, happy days.
×
×
  • Create New...