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Mucka

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Mucka last won the day on December 10 2016

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  • Gender
    Male
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    Manchester
  • Interests
    Everything, especially philosophy, physics and meteorology - did I mention football?
  • Weather Preferences
    Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!

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  1. Strat looks quite toast in deepest FI
  2. Some people have short memories. The Winter of 2010/11 snow fell to low levels from Nov 24th which led to a record breaking cold and snowy December. Personally I say get the cold and snow in as quickly as possible because there is no guarantee it will arrive later. I have lost count the amount of times we have been told to be patient because of this or that background signal with hope-casts that never come to fruition. Maybe that is because I am perfectly okay with a front loaded Winter whereas others would rather see a back-loaded Winter which can usually get colder tbf
  3. The good news with GFS is that the ensembles are much keener to get rid of the Russian high either by having it retrogress some or haaing lower heights push down from the N. That high anomaly is just in the worse possible place if you want drier and/or colder so the sooner it either makes itself useful by moving NW or is gone the better..
  4. The extremely stubborn high pressure anomaly over Russia/Eastern Europe will ensure we can't get cold unless we get some serious undercut and manage to to have it retrograde NW or can significantly lower heights over time.
  5. Yes let's hope ECM is a little more forthcoming since it wouldn't take huge adjustments from here for lowland England to see some snow falling around 16th/17th from the slider.
  6. Seems contradictory in that it states a switch to W/SW winds yet also states temps will remain below average. I would of thought those things were mutually exclusive?
  7. Yes the last frames of the Op show a little warming too so something to keep an eye on.
  8. Have we really gone from record high Antarctic sea ice to record low Antarctic sea ice in just 5 years as NASA claim or has something changed in the way sea ice extent is recorded?
  9. Yes they certainly can, Just thought it was an interesting anomaly. Meanwhile my pressure anomaly forecast for first half November a week or so ago though is looking pretty good. A very mild to start to November looks like belying what may well be a below average CET for first half of the month. I have no idea what type of Winter we may get but enjoy watching the background signals.
  10. The coming rain across central UK is the main story but looking at long term prospects the signal is currently for negative pressure anomalies to our South and positive to our West through first half of Nov which means it will likely be cooler than average, not withstanding there could still be some milder days, but with greater than average chances of polar air sinking into the mid latitudes at times.
  11. The original ECM I thought unlikely of a West based -NAO and warm SouthWesterly flow to end the Month has gained support. It looks as though the trough is not going to push through with a clean resolution of Atlantic block and deep trough to our NE with N flow so the question is how far SW of Britain the secondary low that splits from the trough will be. This will likely make the difference between a very mild SW flow to end Oct or chilly N/NE flow not withstanding some messy inbetween is always possible. The GFS 06z Op and Control are a pretty good example. If we were in Winter there would be endless analysis of how the pattern might unfold and why but at this time of year a strong Atlantic/Greenland block is a waste of a good Winter pattern. I think I would prefer to be in the mild SW flow at this point.
  12. This mornings ECM won't be repeated this evening. (he said) A chilly end to October looks far more plausible a la GFS though I suspect the 12z Op is giving us the best placed and strongest Atlantic blocking possible for that chilly scenario
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