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Mucka

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Mucka last won the day on December 10 2016

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    Manchester
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    Everything, especially philosophy, physics and meteorology - did I mention football?
  • Weather Preferences
    Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!

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  1. The output this morning is going in the right direction. Ignore the vagaries of GFS FI when there is so much variation run to run and within the ensembles. ECM will be fine
  2. UKMO 144 is very nice, GFS 144 decent. The funny thing about GFS is that it has just started solving that heights won't drain SE through the midterm but will be sucked NW But then appears to make the same mistake again from 168 to 192. Regardless it is another improvement and the cold Arctic plunge South is almost getting into the UK again and still the small chance of a snow event if it gets far enough South and mixes with any lows to the S pushing E GEM also good.
  3. I heard that along with the usual upgrades GFS para got an upgrade on its precipitation type algorithm which has gone from 5% accuracy to 100% accuracy, honest!
  4. Certainly an improvement over 12z Sharper trough should prevent sinking SE
  5. To simplify my earlier post further, key difference between ECM and GFS are core heights (yellow N of UK) sucked NW 144/168 instead of sinking SE ECM 144/168 GFS 144/168 An ECM type solution leaves plenty of room for upgrades in FI A GFS type solution means we will have to wait for blocking to reestablish in the Atlantic sector for any chance of deeper sustained cold pattern emerging (or possibly a new scandi high)
  6. Thought I would borrow Nicks crayons and give some newer members some direction. It seems pretty clear we aren't going to get the nice clean retrogression we saw modelled for a while last week but the door to cold remains ajar as ECM 00z hints at, with the behaviour of the Euro shortwave trough moving West beneath the high the first key part of the jigsaw (1) along with the Atlantic trough (2) Arctic troughing (3) and of course the block (4) The embedded Euro trough (1) pushes toward the UK and into the Atlantic before it it stalls and reverses back East toward the continent, the complexities of how this will affect the pattern short term are endless because timing is as key as placement and direction of travel and development. We want Arctic lows (3) exiting Greenland and coming over the top of the high(3) to push more S than E (sharpening trough on E flank of high) and so squeezing heights W/NW instead of them sinking SE into the continent. There are 3 of these troughs within hi res charts, the first circled 24h and another 2 programmed to push SE around 96h and 144h as first the Atlantic low(2) and then another developing low ride over the high and exit NE Greenland. Those are the major short term drivers for our focus of interest out to about 120h before we have the next Atlantic low modelled to push SE and become a cut off trough. This arguably then becomes the primary driver of our local pattern but how it drives that pattern will depend on how far NW we have maintained core heights through to around 120 and sharpness placement of any trough through Scandi (sharper and further W the better) The further NW core heights are as that low attempts to drive East/and and the sharper and further W the trough through Scandi the more easily it will disrupt SE and aid retrogression of heights NW which in turn opens the door to an Arctic flow. The further SE core heights are at this point the less the Atlantic low will be forced SE and the more it will shunt core heights E via forcing which means any arctic trough cannot push S toward the UK and so we simply get heights drain away SE into the continent as with this GFS 12z run. By 168 it should be pretty clear which way the pattern is heading. If we get heights drain SE then the Atlantic low will then be able to move West bringing a spell of milder Atlantic driven weather (mentioned in MetO forecast) though it is likely the low will disrupt much more than GFS is modelling meaning the low would disrupt through the continent or channel rather than across the UK which if we managed to get cold air in place could at least mean transient snowfall in FI. (ECM 00z shows this as a potential outcome post day 10) along with a potential snow event as the Euro trough finally exits E across S UK around 192h but of course the cold air is only allowed by core heights moving NW and not sinking SE ECM 00z potential snow event 192 (exiting old Euro shortwave trough) And the cold is allowed to dig S because the core heights on ECM are sucked NW through 144/168 instead of draining SE a la GFS 12z ECM 00z core heights move NW Deep FI isn't worth looking at currently. Hoping ECM can improve slightly upon the 00z and GFS has it wrong.
  7. Rememeber when we thought we were looking at something along these lines? Well at least 2 18z ensemble members remember the dream I actually think we will get something like this which is half way between the spoiler sinker of the Op and the clean retrogression of the runs above.
  8. Only way that happens is for the high to sink SE a la GFS and the jet to go over the top. I would say the signal for that has waned somewhat in the hi res output but could go either way.
  9. You can't get the WAA/Atlantic ridge toward Greenland without a trough It is all about angular momentum and the jet is forecast to stay well South so no reason why that low West of Ireland doesn't slide SE through day 11/12 keeping us on the cold side while an Atlantic ridge builds behind. All a bit academic at the moment but there is nothing in that chart that suggest a zonal flow to me.
  10. GFS 12z looks very iffy from 144 the way it just shunts the whole pattern SE. The ensembles might be more informative.
  11. Less progressive Atlantic and sharper Scandi trough - are we slowly creeping back toward cold pattern consensus? I doubt it but going the right way.
  12. It is true GFS FI has gone flat with a lot more Atlantic influence in the ensembles but I think that is just a case of it losing any signal, it is just random noise at the moment.
  13. Of course GFs goes one way then ECM goes the other, as Steve says it is a mess. Still a chance of a last gasp Greeny high just nothing like as strong or clean as we were hoping
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