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Mucka

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Mucka last won the day on December 10 2016

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    Manchester
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    Everything, especially philosophy, physics and meteorology - did I mention football?
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    Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!

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  1. Nothing on the latest MetO forecast but still looks like there is the possibility of snowfall across NW England and some central parts tomorrow evening/night. Could be marginal and not sure how heavy any ppn will be but shows up well on JMA. UKMO 144 looks pretty decent if you want to chase an Easterly down the line. (and who doesn't?) As usual GFS is faster and flatter So worth considering that GFS at day 9/10 would obviously have any blocking further South and East than UKMO Things that make you go "ummm"
  2. Could be a surprise snow event for Northern england if UKMO is correct at 48hrs after the main bad of rain/snow has cleared East. Note the kink (embedded shortwave trough) over NI
  3. Not sure what is going on with ECM the last few weeks, it has been abysmal even if the NH stats say otherwise.
  4. Actually I should have been more careful with the terminology as some people use the term closed low to mean a cut off low which is a very different thing (a low surrounded by high pressure) What I meant was the difference between an embedded shortwave trough and fully developed low pressure system. A fully developed low may look far more ominous but an embedded shortwave trough will likely tighten the pressure gradient and bring storm force winds as well. Essentially the further South it is the less chance there is of storm damage occurring Hope that clarifies.
  5. Yes, I think one or two are being fooled by it not being modelled as closed system as it crosses the UK here and there. Winds to the South of the feature will be very stormy regardless unless it is pushed further South. JMA's take on it
  6. Definitely a window of opportunity there Nick. Hopefully the 12z is sniffing out blocking to our NE but any kind of ridge in the Atlantic would help enormously. 12z V 06z Eastern blocking.
  7. Amazing how often the very next output reflects a comment I make in advance of it. UKMO is far less keen to stall low pressure and disrupt it SE though and of course that front could slide further West and we stay dry or push through and we get rain. Nice to see the potential modelled though.
  8. I think that after the cold zonal flow and storm there are two dates of interest. The 21st and around the 26th. The 21st because GFS is stalling the trough SW of Iceland and disrupting energy SE which could give a snowy end to the cold snap for some around that date before the Atlantic gets in proper, though plenty of water, wind and snow to pass under the bridge before that. The 26th because this is where there will be a small window of opportunity for the jet to be deflected SE and heights to build N/NE as prelude to blocking. ECM ensembles still show a small cold cluster from around the 27th so not the form horse but at least it is something to look out for for end of Jan.
  9. Indeed. Perhaps aided and abetted by GFS reluctance to push the trough through this run. After relentless setbacks to our programmed cold zonal spell, there have been one or two slivers of hope for end of Jan appearing in recent output again. Edit. Then again...
  10. GFS nearly gives a snow event at 144 with the trough disrupting SE
  11. GFS is similar to recent runs bringing a nasty storm across the North but UKMO has it a tad further South and so less developed/deep - still gales for many though. GEM sides more with GFS.
  12. I know, I know, but to just cheer folk up. P20 - trend setter. or insane outlier, you decide
  13. Okay I will take your word for it as I am not sure how to interpret them Would of thought that colder cluster on the graph though can't be Westerly based as they have London sub zero at night and 2 or 3C during the day.
  14. No Atlantic blocking but doesn't one of those show an Easterly (Scandi block) by 29th and another a UK high? Not familiar with those charts or up on my Icelandic
  15. A little ray of hope for coldies in ECM ensembles as a cluster go colder toward end of month. (from around 26th/27/th) People who have access to the info might be able to decipher what pattern that might be but I suspect it is some form of Atlantic blocking rather than cold zonal. It is interesting because as I said a few days ago GFS ensembles were toying with the idea of increased blocking toward end of Jan.
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