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Mucka

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Mucka last won the day on December 10 2016

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    Manchester
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    Everything, especially philosophy, physics and meteorology - did I mention football?
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    Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!

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  1. GEM also much improved though not quite there zippidy doo da...
  2. Atlantic amplification is not only dependent on upstream developments but also directly linked to the trough disruption ahead. The better the trough disruption the sharper the pattern and slower the patter creating better amplification behind. This is why as with GFS 144 that finally gives good disruption the upsteam is much improved too with better amplification
  3. Looks a tad better so far very early with better disruption, hopefully bodes well for the rest of the run. UKMO also looking better at 12o
  4. ECM 168 Similar to GFSp only better upstream and sends a little less energy NE
  5. The difference between ECM and GFS over the Arctic is hugee for 144 hours
  6. Not much in GFS ensembles to suggest any deep cold London temps certainly don't look much like last nights ECM's either
  7. At least GFSp gives it a go even if it fails by taking too much of the split energy NE.
  8. Not much support for ECM except just maybe UKMO would have some disruption and a handful of GFS ensemble members still go with good trough disruption around day 7/8 but many are flatter. GEM, GFS and ICON are all pretty poor tbh. Still plenty of drama to come I guess.
  9. GFS ensembles such a mixed bag by day 10 they may as well be random charts.
  10. GFSp a little disappointing in terms of trough disruption out to the midterm compared to previous run and ECM. Will ECM stick to its guns given the UKMO output? Although I don't think UKMO is such a bad run even though it doesn't show good disruption like ECM since it may well have disruption next frame (168) and height rises to our E/NE
  11. Pretty good. Though I think just looking for an Easterly could be slightly misleading to any chances of earlier cold prospects. The main thing is that all the models are seeing trough disruption between days 5 and 8, the extent of that will dictate how strong any height rises (ridge) to our E is and where and how strong that ridge is relative to it being able to influence our weather on the ground. It may be enough to just hold enough cold air in place without a distinctive E flow. Bigger picture - it gives much better prospects for HLB in FI. Getting interesting beyond the cool/cold zonal flow we have seen being modelled in previous days.
  12. I guess I'm just not used to you being so generous to GFS output Yeah I can see it has moved somewhat toward ECM but a long way to go, even in hi res. It would be ironic if the time I am really dismissive of GFS it turned out to be correct. This evenings ECM is going to be well anticipated.
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