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Mucka

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Mucka last won the day on December 10 2016

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Manchester
  • Interests
    Everything, especially philosophy, physics and meteorology - did I mention football?
  • Weather Preferences
    Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!

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  1. The corrections back North will give much more opportunity for widespread snow, as you say central and Southern regions could do very but areas further North and West now not excluded. UKMO a couple of days ago and today. So much better for snow chances further North and convection. I might even get more snow from this mini beast than his big brother but then that wouldn't be hard. Also the cold will be around a little longer than the models were originally predicting.
  2. Big improvement on this evenings UKMO compared to yesterday's and slight improvement on GFS with the high further NW and stronger Easterly feed. UKMO yesterday/Today Hopefully ECM follows suit and we can get further corrections NW which would give more areas of the UK a chance of snow and prolong the cold somewhat. Based on current output it doesn't look like we will get a proper retrograde pattern still with too much Atlantic forcing but it would nice to see the models keep correcting the high further NW to allow a reload from the NE
  3. True enough but see my post above. There is no comparison to this afternoons modelled Easterly and the Beast we just had as far as convective snow opportunities further North. It really should not of been a controversial statement to say that it will be a non event for snow in Northern regions if 12z GFS and UKMO are on the money - blend UKMO and GFS and it is obvious, the flow is rapidly cut off and high pressure in too close proximity to allow for snow. It is fair to challenge that NE England could see something but personally I see the window of opportunity being small even there. All this said, I am commenting on this afternoons GFS and UKMO, nothing to say they will be correct and things could be corrected back North and West.
  4. It was but if you are going to call a reasonable analysis bed wetting what can you expect in return? Where did I say it was worse than the 06z? I commented that if. and it's still a big if, UKMO and GFS are on the right track then it will be a non event for Northern England as far as snow is concerned. I didn't say it won't be cold, it certainly will be and it is an amazing synoptic for time of year but other than a very short window of opportunity in the NE there is very little chance of lying snow for anywhere away from the SE half of Britain, extending into some central regions. I really wouldn't expect NE England to get lying snow form UKMO and unlikely even with GFS but that is arguable, North Western areas would have virtually no chance of lying snow. Basically the further N and W you are away from the SE then the less likely you will see any snow falling let alone lying. We can't compare this with this. When making assumptions about snowfall. If I were in the SE I would be less bothered as there is far more wiggle room.
  5. It was essentially a dry Easterly for my region. I am just calling what the charts show, it isn't my problem if people can't read them or have reading comprehension issues.
  6. What are you talking about? The 06z was already a correction South and a non event for Northern England, the 12z is no better. The UKMO is much worse. I don't know about bed wetting but plenty of verbal diarrhoea coming from your end.
  7. No, starting to look like a non event (snow wise) for northern England if GFS and UKMO are anywhere near correct.
  8. GFS orientates and retrogresses the high better this morning (if you want one last blast of winter that is) snow event for much of England over the weekend now looks likely but could be further North or South. Actually that looks about right as it just misses South of me and I got a whole dusting out of the last cold spell. A little further NW and a reload would be assured from the NE. UKMO cold but keeps any snow interest brief and to the South GEM is more progressive with the cold, bringing it in Friday night/Saturday morning. ICON and APERGE cold and snowy UKMO the odd one out this morning so far in that it has the high further South and thus a shorter lived cold feed though still cold.
  9. I don't know why we take those anymore seriously than GFS past 192, UKMO didn't even see the Scandi ridge when it was at 144. Seems to lose the plot after 120 for some reason.
  10. Certainly lot's of "interesting" weather to come if the models are to be believed. Three main takeaways for the run up to mid month are the possibility of storminess as systems develop rapidly and cross the South of the UK, the potential for very high rainfall associated with these systems and the increased possibility of blocking, most likely Atlantic ridge mixing in some cold air from time to time. The combination of these could mean some surprise heavy but transient wet snow to low lying areas central/Northern UK and likely heavy snowfalls on hills in the North, Around or a little after mid month the weather may begin to quieten down with blocking becoming more of a player with a chance of colder weather returning (though nothing close to what we just experienced) I wouldn't exclude the possibility of West based neg NAO developing after mid month either which could flip the weather to Spring like with long fetch Southwesterlies but that seems fairly low probability at the moment while pressure remains low over Europe and low pressure systems pushing through rather than stalling to the SW. Plenty there for us to get our teeth into over the coming week or two.
  11. North west regional discussion

    I know it is a fantasy chart because it doesn't have a little dry spot over my house.
  12. North west regional discussion

    I love the cold so long as it is extreme but not for too long if there not associated snow. If it just going to be ordinary cold/chilly and dry I would rather it just warmed up and Spring arrived.
  13. North west regional discussion

    The usual for us with an Easterly, cold but mainly dry. Now that the main cold is almost over I would rather get rid altogether if we are not going to have proper snow. Thankfully the models starting to show a quick warm up although UKMO latest looks unlikely.
  14. North west regional discussion

    Looks like a band of snow is forming over N Wales, may well affect Liverpool area
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