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Mucka

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Mucka last won the day on December 10 2016

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  • Gender
    Male
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    Manchester
  • Interests
    Everything, especially philosophy, physics and meteorology - did I mention football?
  • Weather Preferences
    Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!

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  1. "The new research used novel computer models..." 😷
  2. Some extraordinary output on the GEFS 18z including -16 850s over the entirety of the UK in April! Several have 850's below -10 which is extraordinary. The route to that type of brutal cold is from a direct hit Northerly reload as a huge Artic depression drops South. Records would tumble with something as extraordinary as that and frankly that is the only cold scenario that would not thoroughly depress me for April. I think most of us want to be outdoors and feel the sun our skin and feel like they were coming back to life in the words of Floyd. A col
  3. I agree with those that say we could see a glimpse of Spring and rapid return to Winter. A lot will depend on the potential undercut at 120-144 mid month which could well put is back into a continental flow, albeit more likely a slack SE than any Beast type scenario, at least initially. It is a real shame that the breakdown is happening in such a way that all the cold upper air gets mixed out before worthwhile ppn arrives meaning many places, more especially the W of England, will just get rain instead of several hours of snow and at least a transient snowfall from this Easterly whic
  4. Not so much as a dusting here just as expected. I would rather have mild than an Easterly TBH. Now it is just a case of waiting for 5 minutes of sleet and then rain when breakdown comes. 🤡
  5. Beyond any brief breakdown GFS ensembles are pretty keen to rebuild blocking and favour the return of an Easterly type regime toward final 3rd of the month.
  6. LOL but I have only been saying it for tonight 🤣
  7. Nothing except the lightest of light snow flurries so far for SW Manchester and I'm not optimistic about worthwhile "breakdown" snow. I think the best opportunity is going to be overnight tonight and through tomorrow morning from more organised bands of showers.
  8. Complete bust here in W Manchester but completely expected. It is why I never get excited about Easterlies for the NW as we need embedded troughs in strong flow to benefit which are as rare as hens teeth. The real kick in the teeth is that we very likely won't get any snow from attempted breakdowns from the West, just a slow mixing out of the cold uppers and remaining cold at the surface until rain finally moves in. Maybe I shouldn't have got out of bed today 🤐
  9. Does anyone know why GFS parallel keeps going offline? I assume it is to tweak the algorithms but just guessing. It may well just be coincidence that it is having much more trouble sweeping the cold away since it came back online. But I would imagine the Atlantic won't just sweep everything East at 2nd attempt as much of the out put has shown.
  10. The NIMBY posts seem to have reduced which can only mean more chance of snow for the SE and less for the NW 🤣 Let's get the cold in and see what happens. Meanwhile GFSp has arisen from its slumber
  11. That is probably the only thing we can bank on. Meanwhile the 216 chart is not light years away from today's chart
  12. For those in the SE remember the snow over the N will move away SE. It won't be as prolonged and heavy in such a situation but would still likely give a covering IMO.
  13. Absolutely but also time for it to get further N. I would bank something like this right now as the cold gets far enough S and W to give snow for pretty much everyone and it looks pretty snowy to me though maybe someone can post the actual ppn and snow charts later.
  14. ECM looks okay and should be good for some widespread snow but it is a large move toward GFS from last night with the low much further N ECM 120 today/yesterday What we need now is consistency from the Euros and the GFS to move more toward them
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