Ian Brown

A strongly zonal GFS with some very mild temperatures at times.

A strongly zonal GFS and UKMO this morning with the PV dominating matters.

Yes, the models did show this cold plunge into Turkey/Greece.

Forgive me if I don't join the excitement. The jet is rolling over the top of any ridging whether it's the Azores or Scandi.

That would be very transient as the next LP flattened any ridging.

This PV is pretty mighty and going to take a hell of a lot of shifting.

The models continue to show more conventional zonality driven by the deep PV over Greenland. Increasingly wet, windy and unsettled, generally mild at times and likely to dominate for some time.

Thanks Ian, why were the METO talking about below average temps in the extended period yesterday ? Perhaps waiting for the next EC32 dayer to confirm a lengthy zonal SWerley period ?

A very curious call on temperatures given that position of HP to the SE, unless they are seeing the HP in a position to bring a Continental influence. I would suggest that it will be much milder than average, probably in all areas and of course wettest in the NW.

Yes this is line with the US forecasts of a very +ve AO for January, and obviously +ve NAO goes hand to hand with this, with an intense PV and the downstream Euro High.

Its not astonishing at all to suggest that we could be in the same pattern in 5 weeks; the pattern we are entering can take an awful lot of shifting and with the QBO, MJO, forecasted jet pattern all supportive of maintaining this status quo, you can see why such a mild January is being anticipated by some. You can't compare this outlook with other patterns and say 'ah well it is FI and it might change'. This set-up has a big margin for error in terms of synoptic pressure placement and it is clear where we are headed.

ER is only being realistic, we are on a slow descent to zonality with the killer combo of a deep PV and Euro High, with some forecasters talking of a record +ve January AO.

That is dependent no Bartlett setting up with the jet permanently SW to NE. Sure if the jet is a bit further South then you can get some variation, but with comparisons being made to the late 80s and late 90s winters, you often didn't even get that.

A strongly zonal set-up establishing on the GFS, we are now in the sort of situation where charts out to around T216 will have a reasonable level of accuracy.

Yes, horrendous stuff this morning for cold fans. The models agreeing now on the High edging East and then settling into the Bartlett position with the jet blasting to Russia. Some very mild days likely in the run up to Xmas.

CH, I'm in touch with a couple of guys who used to be on the Easternwx forums in the US. They are comparing with the PV strength with some of those late 80s/late 90s winters, potentially a record breaking +ve AO in January.

I don't think it's dramatic at all HD. We know from past experience that such synoptics can last for anything up to 10 weeks.

ECM now fully out and the jet is blasting to Western Russia, if this verifies then the second half pf December could be exceptionally mild and increasingly wet. Cold prospects could be written off until at least early January.

ECM at T168 and its a desperate position going forward from there.

Yes, there are strong signs going forward of something very similar to 88/89. Certainly the US guys are anticipating a very flat pattern for January.

It's must be very much a minority option though, everything would indicate a slow return to zonality from this synoptic position.

A poor ECM and if we get to the position shown at T240 it's a very long way back from there.

ECM rather better at T168, more of a vertically lined jet rather than SW-NE.

Yes it is just a case of hoping that MLB can hold on, unless you like even milder temps and wind and rain. The profile at Northern latitudes is as poor as it can be.

There is nothing to suggest HLB can be achieved with a poor Strat profile, strengthening PV and MJO only likely to support the status quo. The GEM won't be verifying.