Ian Brown

A strongly zonal GFS with some very mild temperatures at times.

A strongly zonal GFS and UKMO this morning with the PV dominating matters.

Yes, the models did show this cold plunge into Turkey/Greece.

Forgive me if I don't join the excitement. The jet is rolling over the top of any ridging whether it's the Azores or Scandi.

That would be very transient as the next LP flattened any ridging.

This PV is pretty mighty and going to take a hell of a lot of shifting.

The models continue to show more conventional zonality driven by the deep PV over Greenland. Increasingly wet, windy and unsettled, generally mild at times and likely to dominate for some time.

The SNP will surely suffer to some degree by a no vote as essentially independence is their raison d'etre. Though of course the SNP are in government and are seemingly doing a decent job with Labour and the Tories discredited in Scotland to varying degrees. A No vote is a strong favourite and that's the main thing as far as I'm concerned. A Yes vote is an 11/2 chance with Stan James and in a 2 horse race that is a pretty slim chance.

Thanks Ian, why were the METO talking about below average temps in the extended period yesterday ? Perhaps waiting for the next EC32 dayer to confirm a lengthy zonal SWerley period ?

A very curious call on temperatures given that position of HP to the SE, unless they are seeing the HP in a position to bring a Continental influence. I would suggest that it will be much milder than average, probably in all areas and of course wettest in the NW.

Latest poll shows a healthy lead for the NO campaign.

Yes this is line with the US forecasts of a very +ve AO for January, and obviously +ve NAO goes hand to hand with this, with an intense PV and the downstream Euro High.

Its not astonishing at all to suggest that we could be in the same pattern in 5 weeks; the pattern we are entering can take an awful lot of shifting and with the QBO, MJO, forecasted jet pattern all supportive of maintaining this status quo, you can see why such a mild January is being anticipated by some. You can't compare this outlook with other patterns and say 'ah well it is FI and it might change'. This set-up has a big margin for error in terms of synoptic pressure placement and it is clear where we are headed.

ER is only being realistic, we are on a slow descent to zonality with the killer combo of a deep PV and Euro High, with some forecasters talking of a record +ve January AO.

That is dependent no Bartlett setting up with the jet permanently SW to NE. Sure if the jet is a bit further South then you can get some variation, but with comparisons being made to the late 80s and late 90s winters, you often didn't even get that.