Somerset Squall

Tropical Depression 22W has formed well to the east of the Phillipines and north of Palau. Intensity is 25kts. The depression has a broad LLC, with some fragmented banding and slowly increasing centralised convection. Shear is low, and waters very warm, which should allow intensification over the coming days. Ridging to the east will force 22W on a northward track over the coming days, whilst a ridge much further north may bend the track towards the northwest by day 5. 22W is expected to mature into a typhoon on approach to the Japanese islands.

Wutip has weakened to 80kts. Some moderate shear has affected the system this evening, and outflow is not so strong. Wutip will make landfall on Vietnam in about 12 hours time, still at typhoon strength.

What a bizarre track LOL. Shear will be a big player in this one it seems, as already mentioned, NHC are not expecting anything more than a moderate tropical storm. It seems the track is down to a trough-ridge-trough pattern, 11L is not forecast to be picked up by the first trough, but should be when the second one comes through, pulling 11L finally to the northeast. By this stage, 11L is forecast to have weakened back to a tropical depression.

Wutip has rapidly strengthened overnight and is now a 90kt cat 2 on the SS scale. Wutip is now forecast to achieve cat 3 status over the next 12 hours as it continues it's journey towards Vietnam. Needless to say, this recent intensification is not good news at all for the country.

The NW accumulation for the last 24hrs has over 200mm falling over parts of the channel!

Wutip is now a typhoon, with winds of 65kts. The eye has become cloud filled but the central dense overcast has deepened considerably and become more symmetrical. Wutip is forecast to become a cat 2 prior to landfall, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a cat 3 out of this. Wutip has become quasi-stationary as the ridge to the north has been broken down by a trough, but the ridge should reassert itself tomorrow, and Wutip will pick up a quicker westward track towards Vietnam. Shear is set to remain low, waters warm, and outflow excellent, which should fuel further intensification.

Is it nighttime? Lol. No thunder and lightning here yet, but the rain is pretty heavy and it is very dark. I thought the showers were meant to start off light?

Wutip has rapidly strengthened overnight, and the latest JTWC advisory (3am) has Wutip as a 55kt tropical storm. However, in latest satellite imagery, an eye is readily visible, indicating that Wutip may well be upgraded to a typhoon next advisory (around 9am). The rapid strengthening is not good news for Vietnam, as it is likely Wutip will be stronger than a cat 1 on the SS scale at landfall now, as the storm still has another couple days over warm water and low shear.

There's not really enough interest in them to justify a thread.

Tropical Depression 20W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Wutip, with winds now at 35kts. The cyclone has jogged north whilst it's been organising over the last 12 hours. The LLC is now tucked beneath an expanding area of convection, which is flanked by increasingly impressive banding features. Further strengthening should occur in the low shear and warm sea temperature conditions, and Wutip is still likely to be a typhoon at landfall.

Tropical Depression 20W has formed in the South China Sea (SCS), just west of the Philippines. The depression has winds of 30kts. There is some weak banding south of the LLCC, but convection is lacking directly over the centre at present. Shear is low, and waters are warm along track, so strengthening is expected. Ridging to the north is expected to guide 20W generally west over the next few days, and 20W is expected to make landfall in Vietnam near the city of Hue. Exact landfall location is subject to change, but Vietnam need to be wary of this one, as it may have time to strengthen into a typhoon prior to landfall.

Pabuk has transitioned into a strong extratropical storm east of Japan. The storm will continue to race northeastwards into the North Pacific.

Winds are up to 90kts. Pabuk has wobbled west, so the outer bands now look like they will scrape eastern Japan as Pabuk swings northeast.

Pabuk has unexpectedly strengthened, and is now an 85kt, cat 2 typhoon on the SS scale. The eye, though large, has become much better defined. The convection has become slightly deeper surrounding the eye over the last few hours. As Pabuk is nearing the upper level westerlies to the north, poleward outflow is increasing, which may account for the more robust intensification this evening. Pabuk could intensify a little more before the westerlies inflict shear causing Pabuk to weaken from tomorrow afternoon.

Pabuk has strengthened a little more, to 70kts. The convection has fully encircled the eye, though it isn't that deep. Pabuk has probably peaked, or near enough.

Pabuk has made the 5kt increase to 65kts, typhoon status. Convection waned this afternoon but has recently increased and begun to wrap around the eye feature. To the south side of the eye convection is still limited at present, but the deep convection encircling the other sides of the eye should wrap around fully soon. Once this happens, Pabuk does have the opportunity to strengthen a little more.

Pabuk is moving over Iwo To, bringing heavy rains and high winds. The storm is packing sustained winds of 60kts, and could become a typhoon this afternoon. An eyewall is developing, and convection is increasing around it, something that has not been happening with Pabuk so far. Pabuk is expected to peak at 80kts before swinging northeast, out of the tropics.

The EWRC never really completed with Usagi, probably due to land interaction with Taiwan, and the associated disruption to the typhoon's inflow, which has been also evident with some interaction with Luzon. This however, just means that Usagi has continued to grow larger. Winds, though reduced, are still at a dangerous 95kts sustained according to JTWC, and this monster is bearing down on Hong Kong. One crumb of comfort is that the latest track has Usagi passing just north of Hong Kong, which, as Cornishbrooksy's post describes, is a better scenario for Hong Kong as it lessens the storm surge. Still a very dangerous storm nonetheless, which will be landfalling in an hour or so. This image shows Usagi nearing landfall, and the large TS Pabuk well to the east:

Mmm, I'm not sure how to find out that information. The West Pacific would be the most likely to have many simultaneous invests, I think I've seen an occasion with 5 possibly.

Pabuk has strengthened to 50kts. The circulation has contracted a little bit, and there is some fairly persistant convection near the LLCC. Banding features are becoming more prominant too. Pabuk is likely to strengthen further whilst shear is low and waters warm, and Pabuk will likely become a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Pabuk has formed, roughly 300 miles southeast of the island of Iwo To, Japan. Pabuk is a very large tropical storm with winds of 40kts. Because of Pabuk's large size, strengthening will probably be slow, although the low shear and warm along track sea temps do support intensification. Pabuk is currently moving northweswards alongbthe southwest side of a steering ridge but should move north then northeast out to sea as it rounds the western extent of the ridge. Pabuk is forecast to peak at cat 1 typhoon intensity before weakening begins in cooler waters to the north.

Yes that's correct . Yeah it would be pretty unlikely to have 10 simultaneous invests in one basin lol

Usagi has lost cat 5 status this morning but remains a powerful 135kt cat 4 super typhoon. Usagi is in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC), with two eyewalls evident in satellite imagery. The EWRC is responsible for the slight weakening. After the cycle is complete, Usagi will be interacting with southern Taiwan, which will cause the super typhoon to weaken further. Hong Kong is next in the firing line, though Usagi is not expected to be anywhere near as strong as it is now. Just how strong Usagi will be does depend on how much land interaction there is with Taiwan, and if Usagi recovers at all before landfalling near Hong Kong.

Manuel's circulation has dissipated, and therefore the last advisory has been issued. Rains should slowly ease from the west over the next day or two.

95L is not related to Ingrid no. But yes, the Gulf Of Mexico, more specifically the Bay Of Campeche, has been the hot spot of the limited activity of 2013. Barry, Fernand, Eight and Ingrid.