Somerset Squall

Christine is making landfall. Winds are up to 85kts according to BOM and JTWC. Now landfall is occurring, Chrstine will begin to weaken. However, as it is a large cyclone, it could remain at TC strength a long way inland across Western Australia.

I can't post an image because I'm on my phone but Bejisa is clearly bombing. It has developed a pinhole eye in latest satellite imagery. The next JTWC update will be interesting!

Bejisa has rapidly strengthened overnight, and now has winds of 60kts. The central dense overcast has persisted, and there are hints of a small eye developing. Banding features have become more prominant, now in all quadrants of the storm. As shear remains low and outflow good, Bejisa should continue to strengthen over the coming few days before weakening occurs as the cyclone runs into higher shear.

Christine's winds are now at 70kts. Christine has taken a slighlty more eastward path than originally expected, and landfall is now expected midway between Karratha and Port Hedland. This eastward adjustment in track has given Christine less time over water, so the cyclone may have peaked or be very near peak.

Winds are now at 65kts. Christine is developing a nice eye in latest satellite imagery, I wouldn't be surprised to see Christine become a cat 2 or even 3 on the SS scale, prior to landfall in around 24 hours time:

Tropical Depression 04 has become Moderate Tropical Storm Bejisa, with winds of 40kts according to MeteoFrance. Convection is persisting over the LLCC, with fragmented banding taking shape stretching from the south to the west quadrant of the storm. Bejisa is moving slowly as competing ridges result in very limited net steering currents. Bejisa should eventually head south as ridging to the east becomes more dominant, where it looks like it will threaten Mauritius and La Reunion.

Christine has strengthened as it moves southwestwards towards the northwest Australian coast. Winds are up to 60kts according to JTWC. Convection is blossoming over the LLCC, and strong banding features continue to flank the storm. Aside from the wind impacts of Christine, it's clear this system is going to cause a lot of flooding.

Lol well 04U has been named Christine now as winds have reached 35kts. Convection has started to wrap tighter around the LLCC now, which has become better defined. Conditions appear favourable for intensification right up until landfall, currently progged to be near Karratha in around 48hrs time, though this is subject to change. Christine's large size means it's effects will be felt far from the centre of the cyclone anyway.

I think the name was chosen long before this link could've been made lol.

Is it just me or do squall lines seem to be getting more frequent in occurence than normal lately?

The wind is pretty strong but barely any rain to speak of. The radar suggests I may get away with it tonight, which is a good thing as there is a lot of flooding around here. Or is it going to pep up? Looks like most of it is over the channel.

It would be the third cyclone when it forms Vorticity, behind Alessia and Bruce. BOM no longer forecast this system to reach TC strength before first landfall, but it should still become a TC when it emerges over water. Looks like it could become a dangerous storm as you say Vorticity. What are the chances would you say of the low not emerging back over water?

A tropical low has formed in the Josef Bonaparte Gulf, west of the Top End. Convection is increasing over a developing LLCC. The low is heading towards the coast and should make landfall east of Kulumburu in a little over 12hrs time. BOM forecast the low to become a tropical cyclone before this occurs. JTWC assess the chances of TC development as MEDIUM. BOM then forecast 04U to head westwards as ridging builds to the south. Over land, 04U will lose TC status (if it gains it in the first place) but then move back over the warm waters of the southeast Indian Ocean, where redevelopment should occur. It should be noted that some models are indicating quite an intense cyclone moving down the northwest Australian coast as we head towards the New Year.

The rain was very very heavy, slammed against my bedroom window for a good 15 minutes. . It sounded like there may have been some hail too. The wind was strong, but no stronger than it's been all evening. Unlike other squall lines, this one was slow to clear because it moved in from the southwest on a northeast trajectory, rather than just west to east. Now the squall line has passed through it has become very silent. Looks like it may not be over yet either, there's another squall line south of Cornwall by the looks of things.

The two squall lines have almost merged, the first took ages to pass through, just getting the tail end of the second one now.

Squall line has hit here, the winds are about the same but the rain is the most intense it has been all evening, slamming against the windows, sounds like there may be some hail in it too.

Looks like another squall line has developed south of the one tracking towards southeast Wales, and this southern one seems to be heading towards South Somerset now, out of south Devon.

32.2mm fallen so far, and the rain is still pouring! The wind is pretty bad too, gusting up in the 50's at the moment. I wonder whether that squall line will reach here? It's hard to imagine the weather actually getting worse!

Amara is gone. Convection didn't come back, and JTWC issued their last advsory this afternoon. In fact, it looks like Amara's remains are being absorbed by TC Bruce to the east.

Bruce has weakened further, with winds now down to 75kts. The eye has gone, and the convective canopy is evaporating as the warm water fuelling the cyclone has now been replaced by rather cold water. Shear and dry air also are adding to the mix to further weaken Bruce. Bruce will begin extratropical transition soon, and should have completed this process in a day or so.

Bruce has weakened through the day as it curves south. Winds are down to 110kts, making Bruce a cat 3 now on the SS scale. The eye remains fairly well defined but the central dense overcast is eroding and becoming less convectively deep. This is due to cooling sea temps and increasing shear, two factors which are set to become even more unfavourable over the coming days, leading to further weakening as Bruce accelerates southeastwards.

Amara is falling apart, very quickly. Convection has largely dissipated, and winds have dropped to 60kts. However, without convection, Amara's circulation should wind down quickly, and with the strong shear currently affecting Amara, persistant convection does not look likely to return.

The showers keep breaking up and passing north and south of my location. It got pretty windy as the last shower passed to the north.

Amara has weakened to 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. The LLCC is becoming partially exposed from the deep convection due to shear. Tracks of both Amara and Bruce, showing how close Amara got to Rodrigues a couple days ago:

Yes, Bruce became a cat 5 on the SS scale overnight with winds of 140kts. I think now however, that Bruce may be weakening and almost certainly will have lost cat 5 status next JTWC advisory. In fact, Navy/NRL tropical cyclone page suggests winds may have dropped back to 130kts currently. Bruce and Amara have been two very impressive systems for the start of the South Indian Ocean season, I wonder if it is a sign of things to come?