Somerset Squall

Yagi is now a convectionless swirl of low clouds south of Japan. Regeneration is not expected due to cool sea temps and high shear.

As expected, Yagi has now moved over much cooler water. Convection, which was already shallow, has decreased yet further, and windspeeds associated with Yagi have decreased to 45kts. Yagi is reaching the northern extent of the ridge steering it and should slowly turn east whilst dissipating over the next couple days.

Yagi hadn't peaked, and is now a 55kt tropical storm. Poleward and equatorward outflow has improved over the last 12hrs, allowing further strengthening despite the shear. Yagi is running out of time however, as sea temps are fast becoming unfavourable for further development.

Yagi has strengthened slightly to 45kts. The storm retains a well defined LLCC, but with limited deep convection over it due to moderate shear and dry air to the west. Shear will rise further over the next few days, and waters will cool on the north then easterly track south of Japan. Therefore, Yagi has likely peaked.

Yagi has strengthened slightly to 40kts. The storm has a modest amount of deep convection over the centre and fragmented banding features. Shear has risen slightly, slowing intensification. Unless shear drops over the next day, Yagi won't strengthen much more. Beyond 36hrs, waters cool along track and shear rises, which will produce weakening as the storm approaches Japan.

Yagi should be weakening at this point SB as sea temperatures are low in the vicinity of Japan and shear strong at this time of year. But a landfalling typhoon would be highly unusual in Japan at this time of year yes. Yagi is only expected to be a weakening minimal tropical storm at best at landfall. Yagi only has about 48hrs to strengthen whilst shear is low and waters warm. A ridge to the east will be the main steering influence, guiding Yagi generally northwards.

Tropical Storm Yagi has formed east of the Philippines, with sustained winds of 35kts. Forecast to move north towards Japan and strengthen, at least in the short term. Will have a fuller update later.

The storm doesn't seem to be moving very fast and is still some way to my east. Haven't heard any more rumbles. Is it losing intensity?

Thunder rumbling to the east, feels much cooler today. No rain as yet.

92L is certainly impressive for this time of year but it is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. Tropical cyclones this far east in June are rare, but there have been a few cases of these strong disturbances becoming tropical depressions prior to climatology (strong shear and lukewarm sea temps) destroying them. Eg. Tropical Depression Two in June 2003, Tropical Depression Two in 2000.

Andrea has weakened to 40kts. As SB says, it is well on the way to becoming extratropical with the strongest winds and heaviest rains now confined to a band well east of the broadening centre. Andrea is mocing through South and North Carolina at present and should completely lose tropical characteristics within the next 24hrs as it races northeastwards up the eastern seaboard of the USA.

Shear and dry air have kept the convection shunted east of the LLCC which is partially exposed. The centre appears to be making landfall or will do in the next hour or so. Sustained winds have increased to 55kts.With a system like this, the centre of the storm making landfall is of little consequence weather wise. The strongest of the winds and heaviest of the rain have been impacting Florida for a while already

Andrea has strengthened to 50kts overnight. Andrea's convection resembles a hook like appearance with the convection attempting to wrap into the western quadrant of the circulation, with the majority of the convection still residing east of the centre. Andrea shouldn't strengthen much more given the environment, but don't rule it out, especially as Andrea has fought off the dry air well so far. Shear is increasing again though today, and this may drive the dry air into the core of Andrea. The intense band of convection east of the centre is of concern for parts of Florida though, some very high rainfall rates in this band.

It appears so Mezza lol. Shear has eased a little but there is still about 20kts of shear over the system's centre and higher shear values further north, west of Florida. This should keep Andrea in check over the next day or so prior to landfall, barring any surprises of course.

So we have the first storm of the Atlantic season. Andrea has sustained winds of 35kts currently, but is not expected to get much stronger due to shear and the wall of dry air to the west which is limiting convection on the west side of Andrea. Looks like a big rainmaker for Florida and the east coast as it becomes extratropical.

Up now to 60% for 91L. Dry air is affecting 91L's western side and shear is also moderate. RECON are investigating the system at present. If it does get named it should remain fairly weak but high rainfall totals are a concern over Florida.

May wetter than average, though it wasn't looking like it would turn out that way before a healthy dose of rain on the 28th. 2013 so far has turned out very near the average, just 0.5mm below so far. January: 95.2mm (above average)February: 43.1mm (below average)March: 55.9mm (average) April: 27.3mm (well below average) May: 57.4mm (above average)2013 so far: 278.9mm (average)

Close, but no cigar say NHC:

Yeah, it was certainly stronger than 65kts at landfall.

The next NHC update is going to be interesting. Barbara has weakened to a tropical depression but has emerged into the Bay Of Campeche.To my untrained eye, although Barbara looks a bit dishevelled, its LLC looks to still be in tact. Has she made it I wonder? IF Barbara is still a TD then it'll be the first basin cross over between these two basins since Caesar-Douglas in 1996.

Barbara has made landfall. Some interesting stats from NHC: THIS IS THE EASTERNMOST LANDFALL LOCATION FOR AN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966. IT IS ALSO THE SECOND-EARLIEST HURRICANE LANDFALL IN THE RELIABLE RECORD.

Interesting to note aswell that Barbara could survive the trek across land and emerge into the Atlantic basin in the Bay Of Campeche. If this did occur, Barbara would retain it's name. It'll be touch and go with the mountainous terrain of Mexico, but Barbara is crossing at a point which will take it across a short stretch of land.

92E became Hurricane Barbara. 91E now up to 40%. The LLC is well defined, but partially exposed. Six hours ago, convection had completely diminished from the system, so the current convection is very recent. The partially exposed LLC is an indicator of shear which may slow further development.

Close up of Barbara:

And here we go, Barbara is now a 65kt hurricane, impressive as the system was only designated a tropical depression a little less than 24hrs ago: