Somerset Squall

Cosme is on the verge of being declared a remnant low. There has been no convection for at least 12 hours now, and the LLCC is gradually spinning down. Intensity has fallen to 35kts. Unless a flare up of convection occurs (unlikely due to the cold sea temps), then the next NHC advisory will be the last.

Cool waters have taken their toll on Cosme, and the system has been downgraded to a tropical storm with winds of 50kts. The eyewall has gone and the convectiion is waning. Waters of around 21-23C are expected to weaken Cosme further, and it shouldn't be long before the cyclone degnerates into a remnant low.

Cosme is likely peaking. Winds are up to 75kts this morning. Already, convection is weakening long the western half of the hurricane, indicative of movement into cooler waters and a more stable airmass. Cosme retains some deep convection over the centre, but it is slowly shrinking with time. Weakening should commence this afternoon as Cosme heads west-northwestwards. As Cosme weakens, it should turn westwards as the increasingly shallow cyclone gets steered in the low level easterly flow.

Cosme has strengthened some more and is now a 65kt, cat 1 hurricane. Cosme maintains a central dense overcast with glimpses of an eye from time to time. Cosme has about another 12 hours to strengthen, before cooler waters induce a weakening trend.

Cosme has intensified further overnight, and winds are now at 55kts. The storm has developed a central dense overcast, flanked by tightly wrapped banding. The storm will likely become a hurricane in the next 12 hours, and is forecast to peak at 75kts in 24-36hrs time before the west-northwest track brings Cosme into cooler water and increasing shear.

Cosme looking pretty impressive on satellite, definitely a maturing tropical storm. And certainly a very large one at that. Despite being several hundred miles away from the Mexico coast, Cosme's bands are still lashing the coast with heavy rains.

Cosme has continued to strengthen. Intensity is now 45kts. The storm remains large in size, but the central dense overcast appears to be deepening and the LLCC is fully tucked beneath the deepest convection.

Overnight, 03E has undergone some structural changes. The sprawling bands have morphed into a large central dense overcast feature, and the LLCC is located on the northern edge of this mass of intense convection, due to moderate shear. Intensity has increased to 35kts, and 03E is now Tropical Storm Cosme. Cosme has jogged westwards whilst undergoing these changes. However, the west-northwest to northwest track will resume later today. Cosme should continue to strengthen, especially as the shear begins to ease later today and the sea temps remain warm along track for the next few days. Cosme's large size argues against rapid strengthening, but Cosme should still have time to become a minimal hurricane before weakening begins.

Indeed, 95E is moving eastwards now, clearly being dragged into Tropical Depression 03E. Down to 10% chance of TC formation according to NHC.

After a 3 week lull the third tropical depression of the East Pacific season has formed in the eastern half of the basin, well south of the Mexican coast. Intensity is 30kts. 03E is a large tropical depression with sprawling bands and a small area of deep convection over the LLCC. Over the next few days, 03E is forecast to move on a typical west-northwest track on the southern side of ridging over Mexico. This gives the depression about 4 days over warm water to strengthen. Shear is expected to be low to moderate, so 03E is forecast to become a hurricane before reaching cooler waters.

Persistance I guess SB, because 95E is not looking well at all this morning, with little or no convection associated with it. Looks dangerously close to being swallowed by the very large 94E to the east too. 95E's development chances as stated by NHC remain at 30%. NHC have raised 94E's development chances to near 100% this morning, so they are confident of the invest becoming a tropical depression soon. 94E appears in good shape this morning, with expanding convection over the LLCC, and some curvature and banding evident. Will probably get upgraded this afternoon or tonight.

Bebinca has not restrengthened over the Gulf Of Tonkin. Instead, severe shear has decapitated the depression. The convection has been completely removed from the LLCC, and is well inland across central Vietnam, leaving the LLCC to drift slowly towards the coast well behind it. JTWC have issued their last advisory.

It has SB. Bebinca has turned sharply west and has made landfall on the east coast of Hainan Island instead of to the north. Intensity has fallen to 25kts as land disrupts Bebinca's circulation. When Bebinca emerges over the Gulf Of Tonkin it could briefly regain TS status before another landfall near the China/Vietnam border.

05W has strengthened into Tropical Storm Bebinca, with sustained winds of 35kts. Bebinca is a sheared tropical cyclone with the LLCC completely exposed from the convection. Bebinca has likely peaked as shear is expected to remain strong as the storm approaches Hainan Island. Dissipation is expected to occur in 48hrs time as landfall occurs north of Hainan.

Leepi degenerated into a remnant low last night south of South Korea. The remnant low is now extratropical moving eastwards south of Japan.

Tropical Depression 05W has formed west of the Philippines, in the South China Sea (SCS). Sustained winds are 25kts. The depression has formative banding features in the southern quadrant, but little convection directly over the LLCC due to moderate shear. 05W is expected to push north through the SCS over the next day along the western side of a ridge well east of the Philippines. The depression is then forecast to turn northwest, then west-northwest towards Hainan Island, as ridging builds to the north. Moderate shear and the currently broad nature of the depression should keep intensification from being too significant, but 05W is expected to achieve tropical storm intensity prior to landfall, currently progged north of Hainan Island. However, with a system such as this, it is important not to focus on the system's centre as the main issue with 05W will be rain, which most of which is currently falling from the system's sprawling bands reaching far out from the centre.

Strong northerly shear has affected Leepi overnight, and the storm remains at 35kt intensity. Convection has been sheared south of a poorly defined LLCC. Leepi has continued to move north, west of Okinawa, and will soon recurve eastwards south of Japan. Extratropical transition will begin very soon as sea temperatures continue to decline and shear remains high. Strengthening of this weak storm is no longer expected.

Barry is now a 40kt tropical storm closing in on landfall on Veracruz, Mexico. Primary concern, as GW highlights, is the high rainfall totals from Barry for Southern Mexico. Barry should make landfall very soon, and will rapidly dissipate over Mexico, but the heavy rains may continue for a few days yet.

The large, sprawling nature of Leepi has meant that it has failed to intensify, and remains a 35kt tropical storm. However, just recently convection has deepened near the centre, something that has not occured so far in Leepi's life. As Leepi nears the mid-lattitude westerly wind belt, outflow should improve and the storm should strengthen at least modestly before it runs further north into shear.

Now back over water and the LLC already looks like it's tightening up again, also the system seems father north than forecast. I now think 02L has a good shot at becoming a tropical storm prior to second landfall.

Tropical Depression 04W has become Tropical Storm Leepi, with sustained winds of 35kts. The storm remains a large and sprawling system with multiple convective bands but unimpressive centralised convection. Leepi should strengthen modestly over the next day or two in a favourable environment, but the storm's structure argues against significant strengthening.

Had a brief shower here, very large drops. Looks like the worst of it's passed to my west this time. No thunder heard, though there looks to be good potential over the next few days.

02L appears to be making landfall or will do so in the next hour or two. The depression is messy, and NHC notes the LLCC is hard to locate. Ridging to the north is set to remain in place and I do wonder just how long 02L will have over the Bay Of Campeche (BOC). NHC mentions the possibility that 02L may dissipate over the Yucatan and not emerge into the BOC at all. Additionally, if the depression's track edges any further south it may never reach water again. A lot hedges on just how well this already fairly disorganised depression fares over the next 36hrs.

Tropical Depression 04W has formed about 300 miles east of Manila, Philippines. Sustained winds are currently 25kts. The depression is fairly large and broad but the convection is becoming better organised about the centre with time, and banding features are beginning to take shape. The steering pattern is rather much the same as with TS Yagi last week - a ridge to the east is set to drive 04W northwards for the first 48hrs, followed by a turn towards the east as the 04W reaches the northern extent of the ridge. For about the next 48hrs, shear should remain low, and outflow good. Therefore, 04W should become a tropical storm. JTWC anticipates a peak of 45kts though my hunch would be that 04W may become a little stronger than this but not significantly so. Beyond 48hrs, shear begins to rise and sea temps cool along track, initiating extatropical transition south of Japan.

Invest 93L in the NW Caribbean has developed a closed LLC and enough organised convection to be designated a 30kt tropical depression, the second of the Atlantic season. 02L is very near the coast of Belize so doesn't really have time to strengthen any further. After landfall, 02L will obviously weaken but is expected to emerge into the southern Bay Of Campeche; as the upper level environment is expected to remain favourable then 02L might become a tropical storm before a second landfall, this time on the Mexican coast. Heavy rains are the primary concern from this cyclone.