Somerset Squall

The first tropical cyclone of the North Indian Ocean 2013 season has formed in the southeast Bay Of Bengal, west of the Malay Peninsula. Convection is blossoming over the consolidating LLC. Sustained winds are 35kts. Shear is moderate to strong over 01B but the cyclone has a strong poleward outflow channel, reducing the negative impact of the shear. A steering ridge to the north is pushing 01B northwestwards currently, but as this ridge weakens over the coming days, 01B will move north then recurve northeastwards. Shear is expected to ease and 01B could become quite intense as it moves deeper into the Bay Of Bengal. Burma currently is at risk of a landfall next week, so this needs closely watching as 01B is expected to be intense. Exact landfall is still open to change.

24S has slowly strengthened as expected. Intensity is up to 45kts. Moderate to strong shear continues to be offset by very good outflow. The marginal environment is expected to persist over the next day, allowing for some slow strengthening. Beyond 24hrs, shear could ease, at least temporarily. At this stage, JTWC are forecasting 24S to peak at 70kts before shear rises again. 24S is drifting south. The west turn is still expected, but timing is uncertain due to poor model agreement.

Tropical Cyclone 24S has formed nearly 700 nautical miles east of Diego Garcia. At just 6 degrees south, 24S is the northernmost tropical cyclone formation this year in the South Indian Ocean, by some margin. The cyclone has sustained winds of 35kts, and a healthy amount of convection over the LLC, with formative banding features taking shape. 24S is being affected by moderate shear but is being helped by robust upper level outflow, which has aided the consolidation of the cyclone in the less than ideal shear environment. Moderate shear is expected to persist over the coming days, slowing intensification. 24S is expected to drift south whilst slowly intensifying before making a more definite turn to the west as ridging to the south builds. 24S is not expected to approach land.

Perfect day today. Gentle breeze, unbroken sunshine, warm enough too. Just right. Wouldn't want it any hotter.

Zane has been destroyed by shear well before landfall. The LLC is quickly unravelling and the remaining convection is far removed from this centre. The system has been declared a remnant low because of this, and re-generation is not expected.

A severe tropical cyclone is a term used by BOM to classify cyclones cat 3 and above on the Australian scale. So it doesn't look like Zane will make it as shear is now weakening the cyclone. Convection is shearing off the LLC, and winds are down to 55kts according to JTWC. Landfall not far off now.

Frosty start here with temps down to -0.6C. Beautiful sunny day here now though, hardly a cloud in the sky. Temperature could be a little higher and the breeze less keen but can't grumble really!

Zane reached a 65kt intensity this afternoon, but has since weakened back to 60kts. Shear has risen to moderate levels, ending the rapid intensification phase. Zane could strengthen a little more as the shear isn't destructively high, before landfall on the Cape York Peninsula (CYP). Shear levels are pretty high in the Gulf Of Carpentaria, so re-strengthening is not expected when Zane reaches here after crossing the CYP.

April the driest month of the year so far, and had 101.1mm less rain than last April. January: 95.2mm (above average)February: 43.1mm (below average)March: 55.9mm (average) April: 27.3mm (well below average)2013 so far: 221.5mm

Zane has rapidly intensified to 60kts. Zane has developed an eye, flanked by banding. The rapid intensification is down to the fact that Zane is quite small and is in a region of low shear and superb outflow. Further rapid strengthening is likely as Zane moves towards the Cape York Peninsula. Zane is likely to survive the trip over land SB, but conditions in the Gulf of Carpentaria are not favourable so Zane will likely dissipate as it reaches the western half of the Gulf.

A late season tropical cyclone has formed in the Coral Sea. Tropical Cyclone Zane has sustained winds of 35kts, and is characterised by a small, well defined LLC with a decent amount of centralised convection. In the last few hours, banding features have started to take shape. Shear is low over Zane, so the cyclone should strengthen over the next day or two. Strong subtropical ridging to the south is expected to push Zane westwards quite quickly towards the Cape York Peninsula, so Zane only has about 36hrs to strengthen before landfall near Cape Grenville. Exact landfall location is subject to change of course, but a westward track is very likely to verify given the strength of the ridge to the south.

Imelda has weakened to 55kts. Convection is being sheared away from the LLC as shear has risen to moderate to high levels. Shear is expected to persist and further weaken Imelda over the next day or two.

Imelda continues to strengthen in it's new found favourable environment. An eye has once again developed, and sustained winds are now at 75kts (10kts less than Imelda's first peak). Imelda is near it's second peak I would've have thought as shear values are much higher to the south. Imelda is expected to continue southeast in the near term as a near equatorial ridge steers the cyclone, but Imelda should turn westwards thereafter as ridging to the south gains control of steering influence.

Imelda has surprised us again, and has strengthened to 50kts. Convection has blossomed over the LLC, and banding features have developed again. Imelda could strengthen a little more as outflow has improved over the last 12hrs. Longer term, Imelda should weaken again as shear rises on the southeasterly track.

Imelda is in trouble. Winds are down to 35kts currently, and convection is lacking. Waters are warm and shear low to moderate, but troughing is causing subsidence and dry air over the LLC. Imelda is no longer expected to re-strengthen, and instead should dissipate in a day or two, unless the trough moves away from Imelda, which is not considered likely at this time.

There is nothing left of Victoria now. The cyclone was destroyed this morning by high wind shear and cold water as Victoria raced south out of the tropics.

Imelda has unexpectedly weakened today. Shear has risen, eroding the convection from the LLC. The eye has long gone, and the LLC is now partially exposed. Intensity has fallen to 55kts. Imelda is now moving to the southeast. The cyclone is expected to find lower shear again and therefore does have the opportunity to restrengthen a little in the 24-60hr time frame.

Strong northwesterly shear has affected Victoria overnight. The eye has gone, and the convection is mostly over the southeast quadrant of the storm, displaced by the shear. Intensity has fallen to 60kts. On the generally southward track, sea temps decline, and with the continued shear, Victoria should progressively weaken.

Imelda has become a cat 2 on the Saffir Simpson scale, with sustained winds now at 85kts. The cyclone retains a solid central dense overcast with a shrinking eye embedded in it. Impressive banding features continue to flank Imelda. Some more strengthening is expected.

Intensity is now up to 80kts according to JTWC, time is running out for Victoria's intensification however. The CDO is already shrinking but remains very intense.

Imelda has popped out a large eye from the central dense overcast. Imelda has started to slow, indicating that the cyclone is nearing the western extent of the ridge steering it. Sustained winds are now at 70kts, and Imelda should continue to strengthen over the next 36-48 hrs.

Victoria has strengthened further, and sustained winds are now at 75kts. Victoria was displaying a pinhole eye earlier which has since become cloud obscured. Victoria is likely near peak intensity.

Victoria has continued to strengthen quickly overnight, and has been upgraded to a severe tropical cyclone by BOM, with sustained winds now at 65kts. An eye feature is emerging embedded in the central dense overcast (CDO) this morning, with strong banding flanking the southern side of the CDO. Victoria still has about another 18 hours to strengthen before it runs into higher shear to the south.

Imelda has grown in size significantly today and intensified further. Sustained winds are now at 60kts. Imelda continues to head westwards but the southward turn is expected soon. Conditions remain favourable for further strengthening as outflow remains good, shear low and waters warm.

Victoria has developed a central dense overcast feature and sustained winds have increased to 50kts this evening. Further quick strengthening is possible over the next 24hrs, as outflow is impressive, particularly in a poleward direction, and for now, waters are warm.